With Monday’s Golden Globe Awards out of the way, Hollywood’s real Oscar race gets going. The fact is the winners at Monday’s telecast were almost exactly in line with predictions after months of campaigning by Hollywood’s studios, with the one mild exception being “Babel” beating “The Departed” for best film drama.

“Dreamgirls” with three Golden Globe victories including best musical or comedy, is now the clear Oscar frontrunner. But it has two big hurdles to overcome: not enough little box office and too much award hype.
    As of Monday, it’s domestic ticket sales were $67 million, and while that is better than “Chicago” at roughly the same point in its successful 2002 Oscar bid, the fact is Oscar voters like a box office smash. Paramount’s marketing strategy all along has called for a slow rollout, but the question is whether they waited too long and interest has waned?
    Producer Laurence Mark eluded to the issue last night in his acceptance speech when he said about the movie’s win, “I’m sure we’ll be advertising it in about 10 seconds.” And don’t forget the hype factor. Oscar voters don’t like to be told which movie to favor. A backlash is possible.
    If “Dreamgirls” falters, Martin Scorsese’s crime thriller “The Departed” and cultural drama “Babel” will be close behind. The buzz is Scorsese is a near shoo-in for the best director Oscar, and that correlates strongly with a best film Oscar. 
    Yet, “The Departed” is not Scorsese’s best work, and Golden Globe voters recognized that. “Babel” is a complicated “love it,” or “just don’t quite care and grew sort of bored” type of movie. Golden Globe voters loved it. Will Oscar voters?

What signs to watch? 

For “Little Miss Sunshine” and “The Queen,” a nomination is perhaps their big victory, and don’t forget Clint Eastwood’s “Letters from Iwo Jima,” which won the Golden Globe for best foreign language film. Oscar voters like Clint.

Well, the Producers Guild of America awards this coming Saturday, Jan. 20. Oscar nominations follow on Jan. 23. Then come awards from Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America and Writers Guild of America. Guild members are often Oscar voters, too.
Cold front on the catwalk

    Meanwhile, the stars’ fashion parade at the Golden Globes was hampered by a cold wave gripping sunny Los Angeles. On the red carpet, some stars like Vanessa Williams or Sharon Stone (right) appeared comfortable, covering up open-shouldered gowns with a stole or wrap.

    Others who didn’t, like Chloe Sevigny (pictured left), just looked miserable. Red carpet doyenne Joan Rivers remarked, “All these ladies have been waxed so you see the goosebumps with no hair coming out,” she said. She oughta know.
    The celebs will hope for warmer weather on Feb. 25 when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences gives out its Oscars in Hollywood.
 

Photos: REUTERS