Afghan Journal

Pakistanis demand answer, want to take down militant networks

It’s still not firmly established whether any Pakistan-based militant groups were involved in the failed car bombing in New York  this month and there have been renewed suggestions that the suspect Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-American,  may have been a lone wolf.

But this hasn’t stopped the soul-searching that Pakistanis have engaged in since the  failed attack on May 1. Indeed, it’s not just the United States or other countries in the west urging Pakistan to act against militants; the Pakistanis are as forthright, if not more demanding that the whole ‘terrorist infrastructure” be taken down.

Here’s an excerpt from an editorial from The Dawn:  “Sadly, our security establishment only acts when Pakistani or Pakistan-based militants attack or threaten to attack others and we, in turn, are threatened with “severe consequences”. These groups pose a danger to Pakistan more than to anyone else. When cornered they have no qualms about turning their guns on the state and its citizens. Created in the Zia era and nurtured by elements in the intelligence agencies, the jihadi infrastructure has spiralled out of control, and action is necessary before matters become even worse.”

The Daily Times said it was time Pakistan took on the Afghan Haqqani network operating out of North Waziristan, which has long been seen to be close to the Pakistani security establishment.  “The Haqqani network, considered an ‘asset’ for Pakistan in its ‘strategic depth’ policy in a post-US Afghanistan, has been given a free hand for far too long now. Haqqani has not only given a safe haven to the al Qaeda leadership in North Waziristan but is also involved in providing assistance to the Punjabi terrorists.”

The  newspaper also attacks the security authorities for failing to deal with the Pakistani Taliban decisively. ”The Pakistani Taliban have already wreaked havoc in our country, but their global terrorist aims should be a cause of concern for the government and the army. In the past we have either not paid much attention to their ties with global terrorist networks or have turned a blind eye to these collaborations. Now that a terror plot has been uncovered in the US and the involvement of our local Taliban is suspected, there should be no procrastination on this front.”

Pakistan must act for its own good, but if it didn’t the United States may well  bomb North Waziristan itself, intensify the drone attacks, bring boots on the ground, or declare war against Pakistan in the worst-case scenario, the newspaper said.  It reminds readers that the U.S. reaction to the attack on the Twin Towers in New York was an attack on Afghanistan.

Guest Column: Getting Obama’s Afghan policy back on track

(C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own).

By C. Uday Bhaskar

The May 12 summit meeting in the White House between visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his host, U.S. President Barack Obama comes against the backdrop of the mercifully aborted May 1 terrorist bombing incident in New York’s Times Square.

From the barrage of news and commentary that floods various media outlets here in Washington DC, it is evident that the Obama Af-Pak policy unveiled with considerable fanfare last year will be in for detailed and contested policy review.

Immediate U.S. interests apart – including the Obama second term, the stakes for the long-term stability of the entire southern Asian region and the troubled Muslim populace in the scattered diaspora ranging from North America to west Europe are immense and complex.

Afghanistan came into global focus with the tragic enormity of September 11, 2001 when it was under the control of the Taliban and the obscurantist, anti-liberal ideology espoused by this group had earlier impacted India’s security interests in the December 1999 aircraft hijacking episode.

America expanding its undeclared war in Pakistan?

(The car packed with explosives at Times Square)

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned Pakistan of  ‘severe consequences” if a future attack on the U.S. homeland is traced back to Pakistani militant groups.

It’s the kind of language that harks back to the Bush administration when they threatened to  “bomb Pakistan to the Stone Age” if it didn’t cooperate in the war against al  Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban following the Sept. 11 attacks.  Pakistan fell in line, turning on militant groups, some of whom with close ties to the security establishment.

In the wake of the failed attempt to bomb New York by a suspected Pakistani American who might have been trained by Pakistan militant groups, the United States seems to have turned up the heat again on Islamabad.

After a year of doling out carrots and trying to build a security relationship mindful of Pakistani sensitivities, the Obama administration has warned its strategic partner that  the U.S. mood could sour if it indeed was proved that the suspected Times Square would-be bomber Faisal Shahzad was tied to Pakistani insurgent groups, the Washington Post said.

Pakistan had done a lot over the past in tackling militancy, but the United States  “wants more and expects more ” Clinton said in a television appearance. The same message was delivered by General Stanley A. McChrystal, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan to Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kayani during a meeting on Saturday, the newspaper reported.

U.S. officials  are privately arguing for a more muscular and unilateral approach towards Pakistan, pointing to an increasingly direct threat to the U.S. homeland  from militant groups based there, the report said.  This could include a geographically expanded use of drone missiles and pressure for a stronger U.S .military presence there.

Taliban reconciliation anyone?

Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistan-born American charged with trying to bomb New York, may have failed in his objective, but one unintended consequence of his act may well be that a plan to reach out to insurgents in Afghanistan has been blown out of the water.

To be sure the Afghan Taliban which is entirely focused on fighting foreign forces in their homeland has nothing to do with the failed Times Square bombing. It is the Pakistani Taliban that claimed responsibility initially and the suspected bomber’s links to the group and another Pakistan-based group fighting Indian forces in Kashmir are being investigated.

But given the alarm that the would-be bomber has caused in the United States, it is hard to see how Afghan President Hamid Karzai can sell his proposal to seek reconciliation with insurgent leaders when he visits Washington next week on what is already looking like a difficult trip.

The space for such a move was always limited but it has shrunk further since last Saturday’s failed bombing. The Pakistani Taliban and the Afghan Taliban are two heads of the monster, writes Jonathan Chait in The New Republic taking issue with the New York Times’s characterisation of the Pakistani Taliban as different from the Taliban  groups that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan.

Chait cites the New York Times’ own reporter David Rohde’s experience while in captivity of the Taliban for seven months to argue that the  militant groups which are gathered in an arc of western Pakistan stretching from the Quetta shura in the south to Waziristan in the north are aiding and abetting each other.

Rhode was kidnapped by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2008 and found himself in North Waziristan just over the border in Pakistan which he later described as a mini-Taliban state.

“Over the next several days, it became clear to me that our Afghan Taliban abductors had not sold us to the Pakistani Taliban. Instead the two groups were working seamlessly together. When we departed from the area six weeks later for unknown reasons, the coordination between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban was equally flawless. Throughout our captivity, Afghan and Pakistani militants spoke in one voice of their desire to topple the American-backed governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and halt what they saw as the oppression of Muslims worldwide.”

from Pakistan: Now or Never?:

Pakistan-despite failed NY attack, change will be slow in coming

After the media frenzy following last weekend's failed car bomb attack on Times Square, you would be forgiven for thinking that something dramatic is about to change in Pakistan. The reality, however, is probably going to be much greyer.

Much attention has naturally focused on North Waziristan, a bastion for al Qaeda, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan fighters including those in the Haqqani network, and the so-called "Punjabi Taliban" - militants from Punjab-based groups who have joined the battle either in Afghanistan or against the Pakistani state.  The Pakistan Army is expected to come under fresh pressure to launch an offensive in North Waziristan after Faisal Shahzad, who according to U.S. authorities admitted to the failed car-bombing in Times Square, said he had received training in Waziristan. Unlike other parts of the tribal areas on the Pakistan-Afghan border, North Waziristan has so far been left largely alone.

But it is by no means clear that the Pakistan Army will be rushed into launching a big offensive in North Waziristan.  It is already stretched fighting in other parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), including in South Waziristan, where it embarked on a major operation last year.  Before starting any new offensive, it needs to be sure it is not going to be attacked from the rear, or become so thinly stretched that it loses hard-fought gains elsewhere.  As one senior military official told me, you have to be very sure-footed, consolidate your gains, and make sure your bases are secure.

That said, even before the failed Times Square attack, the New York Times suggested Pakistan was beginning to weigh the possibility of tackling militants in North Waziristan.  But its decision on timing is unlikely to be dictated by one incident, however dramatic. The Pakistan Army has put considerable energy into improving its image after the tarnishing of the Musharraf years, and is determined to show that when it does launch military offensives, it does so to win. And if there is one thing worse than not going into North Waziristan, it is going in there and losing.

Increased drone missile attacks on targets in North Waziristan are another option. But for drone missile strikes to be successful - taking out militant targets while limiting the civilian deaths which make them so unpopular in Pakistan - you need good intelligence on the ground. The killing in North Waziristan last month of former Pakistan intelligence officer Khalid Khawaja, who reportedly had strong contacts with al Qaeda and the Taliban,  leaves a question mark over whether anyone now has really good intelligence on what is happening there.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is not helping - you can already hear Pakistan Army officers wondering aloud why Pakistan is driving militants out of its tribal areas only for them to escape across the border to live to fight another day. 

Nor are tentative peace talks with India likely to lead to a sudden change in Pakistan's military posture, under which it keeps the bulk of its army on the Indian border.  The Pakistan Army already moved a significant number of troops from its Indian border to fight Taliban militants on its Afghan border last year and is unlikely to redeploy more despite an easing of tensions with India - its army chief is reported to say that the military deals with capabilities rather than intentions.

After Times Square scare, Pakistan under greater pressure to go after militants?

Pakistan has come under renewed spotlight following the arrest of a U.S. citizen of Pakistani descent for a failed bombing in New York’s Times Square and claims of responsibility by the Pakistani Taliban.

It is too early to confirm the plot was tied to any of a multitude of militant groups operating in Pakistan. Indeed, security experts have been sceptical about the claim by the Pakistan Taliban saying they doubt it has the reach to strike in Manhattan.

But if the Pakistani connection is established, the one area that will almost immediately come under focus is North Waziristan, the rugged tribal belt in the northwest that is home to a complex web of militant groups, more so since the Pakistani army launched an offensive against the Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan last October.

Bill Roggio writing in The Long War Journal quotes a U.S. official as saying that North Waziristan is the heart of al Qaeda’s external operations network. Previous al Qaeda plots, such as the attempted suicide attacks in New York’s subway system in September 2009 by Najibullah Zazi and his accomplices, were hatched in North Waziristan. Zazi, an Afghan citizen, travelled to North Waziristan for more than three-and-a-half months of training.

Paul Cruickshank, an alumni fellow at the NYU Center on Law and Security says al-Qaeda will continue to enjoy a safe haven in North Waziristan unless the Pakistani military extends its campaign there.  “The area in and around Mir Ali, the second-largest town in the tribal agency, has arguably been ground zero for al-Qaeda terrorist plots in recent years,” he says in a study for The New America Foundation on the militant pipeline between the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and the West.

It is quite possible that the United States which has in recent months sought to build a more trusting relationship with the Pakistan military may lean on it to mount a full-scale operation in North Waziristan. The military has resisted all along saying it is already too stretched trying to hold the areas such as South Waziristan and Swat that it has wrested back from Taliban control.