The violence since Kenya’s Dec. 27 election has now gathered a momentum of its own and the upheaval has battered Kenya’s image as an East African trade and tourism hub and one of Africa’s more stable nations. So what is the outlook for East Africa’s biggest economy? Read the views of leading Africa analysts and have your say on how Kenya’s crisis is likely to play out or how it should be resolved.
Richard Segal, Renaissance Capital (see full analysis)
“Persistent currency volatility will have a detrimental impact on sentiment in other asset markets and continue to feed through to the real economy… Tourism and trade have suffered from the political instability but it won’t be long before the slump in business and consumer confidence becomes more entrenched.”
Philippe de Pontet, Eurasia Group (see full analysis)
“At this point, the most hopeful outcome for Kenya would be a power-sharing agreement brokered by mediator Kofi Annan that would bring the stalemate to an end—and unless this happens in the first quarter of 2008, the economic impact of the current standoff could be severe.”
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7 comments so far
If an apparent success story like Kenya can so quickly succumb to inter-communal violence then could South Africa also get caught up in the contagion?
- Posted by bleeding heartIt is pretty easy to see where the Kofi Annan talks will go to from here - downhill. Annan will no doubt continue to state that things are progressing well behind closed doors. However it is very difficult to see Kibaki conceding to any sort of power sharing deal or even a re-election. He was sworn in and he has 5 years in power, no African Statesman would ever consider giving this up.
- Posted by Tim CheriotAs for Raila, he too is not about to give up on his hardline stance of a re-election. In the eyes of his supporters, and most of the free world, there is a belief that he did win.
So Annan will exit on Friday next week leaving others entrusted with the negotiations that are all progressing well.
When Annan leaves Kenya will burn for a while, then simmer out as Kibaki will pledge to review his hard line. Then after a few weeks Kenya will burn again, and the process will be repeated for 5 years.
There are no illusions here, both camps are poles apart. The UN, EU, AU and the US will stand by and watch.
Flowers can be grown elsewhere, tourists can move, tea will be sourced from Sri Lanka. The world doesn’t need Kenya as much as people think.
Kenya is one of the most resilient countries in the world. This is just a passing storm, we have just tripped but we will get up in due time. No doubt that we will face an economic downturn in the short-run but in the long-run the outlook is not so bleak. I must state the long-run position depends on the direction that the mediation process is going to take. Keeping optimisim alive, the future for the Kenyan economy is as bright as ever. Being a Kenyan and knowing how hard working we are, Kenya is poised for better.
- Posted by Nyaberi OmaribaKenya’s reputation, unfortunately, has suffered greatly. It will take a long time for tourists to forget how quickly the country devolved into utter chaos.
While Kenyans might be resiliet, the rest of the world is not. As a tourist, we have choices. Our money spends just as well elsewhere as it does in Kenya.
Kenyans should be outraged that 2 grown men can bring a country to its knees, making it a laughing stock to outsiders. Tell me, is Kenya really better off without colonialism?
- Posted by Mike S.This is in response to comment # 4, whether Kenya is better off without colonialism. What a simplistic set of reasoning. As unfortunate as the chaos in Kenya is, this reader wants to paint the image that these things happen in Africa only. What about the unrest in Kosovo and other parts of Europe? What would you say about that Mr tourist? Kenya is a resilient country and will rise from this.
Muigai.
- Posted by K. MUIGAIThe irony of your comparison of Kenya to Kosovo is not lost on me. However, drawing a parallel between a region fighting fiercely for sovereignty (where tens of thousands were killed or raped and roughly a million were displaced) versus two politicians fighting fiercely for power and greed is insulting.
Would the Kenyan people not be better served by learning from those countries which have had disputed elections, yet resolved their differences without bloodshed?
Almost 4 years ago the US had a hotly disputed presidential election yet not on drop of blood was spilt. The issues were taken before the judiciary and were resolved in a civil and peaceful manner.
It is indeed disgraceful that some in Kenya have used the presidential election to elevate tribalism to a level that benefits none, and particularly harms the poor and disenfranchised.
- Posted by Mike S.It is imperative to understand that even though Kenya has experienced violence in the first quarter of this year, the economy has remained relatively stable contrary to the beliefs of the pundits. Of course many sentiments are coming from people who are getting their information about the situation in Kenya from the media, much of which is exaggerated.
I stay in Mombasa, a world tourist destination, and it is important to point out that this coastal city did not experience the climax of the violence as was reported elsewhere. Tourists from other countries went about their businesses unscathed despite the advisories issued by their native countries. The best example is the British wedding party sometimes in January that defied the advisories and ended up a success. This can only illustrate how misguiding media reports can be.
It should not pass our minds that the Kenyan Shilling has edged closely to the world major currencies especially the dollar and the British pound. Before the violence, the shilling was trading at Shs 65 to $1 and shs 120 to a pound, today the shilling is trading at 69 to the dollar and 125 to the pound. This shows that the violence did not have an overwhelming marginal effect to the performance of the shilling.
Today, many people have realised the negative effect that the post-election events had on our economy and image and want to come out of it as fast as they can. All Kenyans want the issues to be solved amicably and it should be known that the people of Kenya have trust in the Annan led mediation team and are looking forward to getting an answer to their woes soon.
- Posted by eliud