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May 11th, 2008

Sudan struggles

Posted by: Matthew Tostevin
Tags: Africa Blog, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

By reaching the gates of Khartoum, Darfur rebels have dealt one of the heaviest blows to Sudan’s traditionally Arab ruling elite since independence in 1956.

Early on Sunday, it looked as though government assertions that the army had beaten back the initial assault were true, but what is the attack going to mean for Africa’s biggest country and the way it is run?

The peace deal with south Sudanese rebels in 2005 made clear Khartoum could no longer afford to rule by force over a mostly black African region where Christians and animists predominate.

Now rebels from Muslim, but largely non-Arab, Darfur have shown the ability of groups who feel neglected in the rest of Sudan to take the battle to Khartoum.
Will there be retaliation in Darfur? Sudan has oil money to buy weapons, but if the war could be won militarily then why has that not happened already?

Will it be a fight to the death between leaders in Sudan and Chad, who accuse each other - by many accounts fairly — of backing each other’s rebels? Or will they have to find a real accommodation?

Could the rebel assault in the longer term push Sudan and the fractious Darfur rebel factions into real peace talks?

And if that happened, would it lead to a more durable Sudan or towards the breakup of a state whose borders were drawn by British imperialists?

What do you think?

11 comments so far

My father tell me life better before british leave. He say der were more food and less fighting. He say african cannot rule country as dey corrupted.

- Posted by Joseph Mbiko

The Sudanese have been manipulated and oppressed, like the other oil producing countries, by the greed of the oil companies and western nations.
Its not that they are corrupted, but they never had the chance.

- Posted by ali

i think sudan is now entering a new era where the different ethnicities question their position with in the state and their share of power and resources. and the only way possible they can narrow down the difference and marginalization is through the use of force. and i think the recent violence is a clear manifestation of this. this has shown a turning point for the different factions fighting amongst themselves in remote places, how to direct their forces to challenge the ruling elite. And clearly the government has started to feel the heat.

- Posted by samuel

Who really cares what happens in Sudan? You have islamists that still take and hold slaves, arabs set on domination and submission of others, and corrupt africans that will never be able to self-rule–just look at Haiti.

- Posted by Andrew

Andrew: I really care about what is happening in Africa. I could try to appeal to you with the humanitarian angle, talk about children being raped, forced to watch their parents killed or any number of the horrible thing they have to endure. Though these things are obviously bad I would like you to consider another aspect of what is happening in Sudan.

Until the late 1990’s Sudan openly supported and housed various terrorist organizations including Al Qaeda. These organizations planned, trained for, and launched various attacks on innocent people around the world, including Americans.

If we, the international community, remain quiet and allow rogue nations to rule without the fear of repercussions then we are not only creating a safe haven for terrorist organizations but giving them a entire generation of scarred and impressionable children to market too.

Note that I said we, the international community, not the United States. Humanitarian issues transcend the idea that this is the responsibility of countries like the United States of America. It is my belief that WE ALL are responsible for ensuring that our own individual governments act accordingly.

- Posted by Corey

Use of force is the cause of many disasters in Sudan. If this action helps, we do not have to have the longest civil war in Africa. However, unless the force is used by a united Sudanese revolution there is no way for tribal forces to get democracy. I have no wonder about the regional and international conspiracy against Sudan to devastate this united 1 million squire miles land.

The real problem of the civil dictatorship and the military dictatorship we have in our luck store since independence from Britain is that, the Sudanese people work separately in so many different groups but not one. Let them achieve unity in the revolutionary struggle first to assure that we will have unity in the country in the future.

I hate to see discriminating and bad intentions in this moderate discussion. Please be wise when you publish any input.

- Posted by Khalid

Ali,
please stop your hate of the west and blaming them for Sudans trouble, it is the Chinese that own your country and oil and sell weapons to the Sudan army. They are also backing the genocide in Darfur. Sudan, Chad and most other african countries are prime examples how dictators keep the people poor and uneducated. This is how they stay in power by creating war and hate between groups. The Chinese and Indians are the new colonial powers of Africa, Africa needs to join together and fight corruption and dictators, no one else but themselves can correct this

- Posted by John

At the end of the day - Africa will revert to what it knows best - ignoring any vestige of what the modern world has to offer.

- Posted by Steve Suckley

I’d like to comment on the relations between Sudan and Chad, these historically complex reltions have always been chractrised with mistrust, betryal and plots to topple each other’s regimes. I am certian that the Khartoum government is currently plotting to topple the Chadian regime after several failed attempts. particulary after the JEM, aided by Chad, made it to Omdurman. I think the international community should be aware of this because any troubles occur in Chad will lead to further complications in the Darfur front, unlike what the hardliners of Khartoum government think.

- Posted by Mohammad Osman

I would like to said that Sudan problems is very complicated in away that we should not comprehend and blame the western for the following reasons.
in the south the war broke out in 1955 before the British even leave the country, and whome should we blame the colonial powers in contrast. in addition to 1972 agreement that grant the south self-rule, than in 1983 the northern government violated the peace and later cause the longest running civil war in 22 years.
in the present time, the northern government don’t want to let the south go because of oil,and this will affect and buried the problem of Sudan if the government of Khartoum fail to implemented the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in 2005. one of the complicated problem is the Abyei protocal which is zero implemented. coming back to Darfur they have been being used as a modle for the central government to achieved their objectives, but now they reconsider themselves in away that making them neglected as southern sudanese and they have a right to claim their autonomy from the Regime if not they will solved their problem through the barol of gun as south did.
Thon

- Posted by Thon

It is morally wrong that the U.S. knows about the killings and Genocide that is taking place in Darfur; still we do nothing about it. It is irresponsible that we remain silent and fail to act. We can not be hypocrites and say this will not happen again during the holocaust and allow another genocide to happen today right in front of our eyes. We need to come together and fight to keep the people of Darfur alive.

- Posted by Joel Rodriguez

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