Africa News blog

Experts forecast healthy 2011 economic growth for sub-Sahara Africa, but growth is fragile as it  depends on developments both at home and abroad, an IMF official said.
 Valeria Fischera, representative of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Senegal said 2011 growth forecast ranged from two to seven percent for the region’s various countries.
 ”But forecasts are risky as several world factors can affect regional trends,” she cautioned.
 Recovery in Europe and the United States was important as it has major consequences on economic activity in Africa.
 She was optimistic as Asian countries were expected to keep growing rapidly and step up trade with Africa, thus protecting the continent from possible deterioration in Europe and the United States.
 But budget cuts in Western economies could lead to a drastic fall in development aid badly hurting poor countries.
 Fischera said there was a real risk that Europe and the United States would not be able to fulfill pledges to take aid to 0.7 percent of GDP. She mentioned crisis budget cuts in Spain, Ireland and Greece.
 She said that political developments within sub-Sahara Africa could also weigh heavily on the economy. Presidential and general elections are due in some 20 countries by the end of next year and could have major consequences as governments would be tempted to announce lax budgets to attract voters, she said.
 Recent events showed that election periods were fraught with danger in a region still in the process of building democracy, and investors would watch closely any deterioration of the situation.
 Yet, Fischera said, things looked good for sub-Saharan Africa as no country was expected to suffer negative growth.

 
 Sié Simplice Hien is a guest writer who took part in the Reuters Foundation  Financial and Business course.