Africa News blog

Could Islamist rebels undermine change in Africa?

Creeping from the periphery in Africa’s east and west, Islamist militant groups now pose serious security challenges to key countries and potentially even a threat to the continent’s new success.

The biggest story in Africa south of the Sahara over the past few years hasn’t been plague, famine or war but the emergence of the world’s poorest continent as one of its fastest growing – thanks to factors that include fresh investment, economic reform, the spread of new technology, higher prices for commodity exports and generally greater political stability.

Nigeria and Kenya, the most important economies in West and East Africa respectively, are pillars of the change in Africa as well as having the largest and most easily accessible markets for foreigners.

Both now face growing battles with Islamist groups; Kenya throwing troops into neighbouring Somalia in pursuit of al Shabaab fighters, Nigeria struggling with bombings and shootings by its homegrown Boko Haram sect.

Kenyan forces have pushed into southern Somalia to drive back al Qaeda-linked militants blamed by Nairobi for a string of border incursions and kidnappings, including the abductions of foreign tourists from coastal resorts which have damaged one of Kenya’s most important industries.

Shabaab has in return called for all out war on Kenya and “huge blasts” by its unknown number of supporters there. Grenade attacks this week have killed one person, wounded more than 20 and jangled nerves in Nairobi, where more than 200 people died in an al Qaeda bombing of the U.S. embassy in 1998.

Killings by Nigeria’s Boko Haram sect (whose name means Western education is sinful) had been largely confined to a remote corner of the semi-desert northeast and ignored by much of the country until bombings struck the capital Abuja a few months back. A suicide car bombing on the U.N. headquarters in August killed 24 people.

Has the African Union got Libya wrong?

The joke always used to be that the ‘U’ in the African Union’s predecessor, the OAU, stood for useless. After the hopeless failure of African diplomatic efforts to bring a peaceful end to Libya’s rebellion against Muammar Gaddafi, and even more since the bloc held back on recognising the new Libyan rulers, critics suggest the African Union could be making itself irrelevant.

But is the African Union wrong to treat the anti-Gaddafi forces with more caution than their Western allies and the Arab world has done even if the former rebels seem to have widespread support for ending an autocrat’s rule?

There are plenty of reasons why the African Union would be reluctant to recognise the rebels who overthrew a man who did as much as anyone to found the African Union in place of the ineffectual club called the Organisation of African Unity.

Many individuals African rulers benefited from Gaddafi’s largesse – particularly when they were in trouble – allowing them to get over any queasiness at his comic theatre at African summits and his coronation as Africa’s “King of Kings” as well as to humour his quest for a “United States of Africa”.

For South Africa’s ruling ANC, Gaddafi was a friend during the struggle against apartheid. For Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, who expelled the Libyan ambassador after he switched sides this week, help has been much more recent. Some autocrats may also fear that the example set by the overthrow of Gaddafi could inspire opponents in their own countries.

For the African Union – and South Africa in particular – there was the embarrassment of seeing peace efforts (no matter how well intended) dismissed internationally while the rebels fought towards Tripoli under the NATO air cover which made their war possible.

It’s not that there is a fully united front in Africa. Increasingly assertive giant Nigeria, striving to set itself out as a champion of democracy, was quick to recognise Libya’s new rulers. West Africans have not forgotten the hundreds of thousands who perished in Gaddafi-fuelled wars in Liberia, Sierra Leone and elsewhere either.

Prestigious opportunity for young African journalists

It is the time again when we seek entries for the prestigious FitzGerald prize for young African journalists.

This offers a scholarship for a promising, young (under 30) African journalist or aspirant journalist to do a post graduate BA hons degree at the University of The Witwatersrand ’s Journalism Programme in Johannesburg, starting in early 2012, and to join Reuters thereafter for a period of work experience.

Candidates must have an undergraduate degree or at least 3 years professional experience in journalism and must be nominated by a senior journalist, publisher or academic.  They must be fluent in English. The scholarship will cover fees, accommodation and a modest living allowance.

Previous winners have come from Malawi, Nigeria and Kenya, chosen from among extremely strong candidates.

Candidates should submit a motivation letter, a CV, writing samples and at least 2 letters of nomination/reference by July 31, 2011  to fitzgeraldprize@thomsonreuters.com. Candidates will have to make themselves available for a written test and interview.

Who are Gaddafi’s on-screen supporters?

Mine has been the least glamorous part in helping cover the war in Libya – assisting correspondents in filing stories from the field and from monitored news reports. 

Of course Reuters has reporters on both sides of the front line, but from Tunis I have been keeping an eye on Libyan television too – partly because it has scrolling headlines in English about the latest crusader, colonial and al Qaeda atrocities which might carry some news but also, I have to admit, from a fascination with the procession of people voicing their support for the Brother Leader, Muammar Gaddafi.

Not being an Arabic speaker, I can only gather a few words, but the raised voices make clear the emotion, often from Gaddafi’s Bab al Aziziyah compound itself.

Who are these Libyans and what do they really feel? Who are the people who bring young children on their shoulders to this repeatedly bombed compound, dressing them in bright green patriotic suits like little elves and hoisting them high while they thrust fists in the air?

Through the day the voices change – at one point a talk show host with improbably red hair discusses with participants sat in armchairs in the sunshine of the Mediterranean spring.

A succession of people take the microphone to voice their opinion – pretty much the same opinion. Sometimes they are teenagers, sometimes workers, sometimes in uniform, sometimes old men in sunglasses – always speaking quickly, loudly and angrily.

Do people get paid for their appearances or is it worth it for the few minutes of fame? Do they volunteer? Are they forced to do this?

Nigerian democracy growing up

A ruling party’s acceptance that it will sometimes do badly in elections as well as win them can be a sign of how well democracy is taking root.

In that regard, Nigeria’s national assembly election already shows some progress.

The mere fact they happened was a big relief to a lot of Nigerians after multiple postponements and a bloody run-up.

The fact that they so far appear to be some of the best anyone can remember is an unexpected bonus.

Having covered various elections in Nigeria since the mid-1990s, I’ve never seen one with so few reports of ballot stuffing, bullying or other forms of rigging or where there was so little rancour at the voting stations.

It’s not to say that things went perfectly, but the imperfections of the past dwarfed what we saw at this vote. Many had believed Nigeria could never hold a credible election and this could help to answer such critics. Africa’s giant might even set an example for the continent.

Early this morning, I was at one of the centres outside Abuja where figures are tallied up.

Nigeria’s non-vote: Incompetence or sabotage?

According to the shame-faced head of Nigeria’s electoral commission, one of the excuses given by suppliers who failed to get ballot papers to the country in time for Saturday’s parliamentary ballot was that there had been problems as a result of the tsunami in Japan.

Contractors in Nigeria tend to be pretty adept with their excuses, whether it’s about a failure to fix the plumbing or to build a highway on time, but this one stands out for its audacity.

Whatever the reason for the two-day delay to the vote, it has inevitably put another question mark over the credibility of a series of elections seen as a chance for a break from a history of ballots where fraud and thuggery have been the order of the day.

Because this is Africa’s giant, the conduct of elections matters all the more for the rest of the continent – whether as a sign of what other governments think they can get away with or whether investors can feel more comfortable in improving institutions.

Electoral Commission Chairman Attahiru Jega was enormously apologetic. The academic has generally been credited with independence and with trying to make sure the job gets done well this time.

The chaos now raises doubts over what can be done with ballots that had already been cast – as they had in some places – and what to do with electoral materials now in place. The whole point of delivering them at the last minute had been to avoid tampering.

As well as the disappointment, the delay to the vote was the cause for much hand-wringing. Some Nigerians asked whether their country could organise anything successfully.

Africa: Not just about commodities

High commodity prices have certainly helped African producers both because it means they get paid more for their exports and it encourages  investment to increase production.

But almost all the speakers at the Reuters Africa Investment Summit have agreed that the change in Africa is driven by more than just digging minerals out of the ground, pumping oil or growing crops for foreigners to consume.

“The Africa growth story is much bigger than a pure commodity story,” said J. Kofi Bucknor, Managing Partner of private equity firm Kingdom Zephyr Africa Management.

“It’s about disposable income growing, improving government, improving economic environments that have allowed investments to generate growth. I think that trend will be sustained irrespective of commodity price volatility.”

Like many other investors, Kingdom Zephyr is seeking to benefit from what it sees as Africa’s growing middle class.

For African countries that don’t produce oil, high commodity prices also bring the pain of higher import costs.

Zambian President Rupiah Banda, whose country relies heavily on copper exports for income, pointed out that even when copper prices tumbled in 2008, it didn’t stop growth.

Send us your investment bankers

Not so long ago, anyone with the talent and means was heading out of Africa in search of better paid and more fulfilling professional work.

That’s all changing and the emotional appeal of a return to the home country is playing a less important part in the Back to Africa decision than the jobs and opportunities suddenly opening up thanks to fast economic growth and expanding financial markets.

As came out of the Reuters African Investment Summit, banks need talented and experienced staff who also understand Africa and there just aren’t enough of such people on the ground to meet the needs.

There are lots of suitable people in the world’s big financial centres, where African professionals who left in search of better lives have now honed their skills in senior jobs.

While there might be an excess of investment bankers for the likes of some in sluggish Western economies, there is lots of demand in Africa.

“The biggest competition we see here is the competition for people,” John Coulter, JP Morgan Chase’s CEO for sub-Saharan Africa, told the Summit.   While many African countries have plenty of experienced retail and commercial bankers in their domestic markets, investment banking skills are rare.

“There is a very strong need for strengthening skills in project finance, in capital markets, in investment banking, even asset management,” the governor of Nigeria’s central bank, Lamido Sanusi, told the Summit in Lagos.

African turmoil? Zambian president doesn’t think so

One of the big questions at the Reuters Africa summit has been what impact the turmoil in North Africa is going to have south of the Sahara – something we’ve looked at on this blog too.

Zambian President Rupiah Banda doesn’t expect much on the political front, at least not in his country.

As he put it to us at the Reuters offices in Johannesburg: “We have gone through that period long before.”

“In 1991, the Zambian people removed the one party state, they moved towards multi-party democracy.”

“If someone stood up today and said let’s remove this government, I think the Zambian people would say ‘Why do we have to run the risk of burning this country when we are going to have elections this year?’”

Zambia was one of the first countries to take the multiparty route when protests to demand democracy erupted across the continent after the Cold War.

It is widely seen as one of the better examples of a functioning multiparty system. There are plenty of examples of countries south of the Sahara where reforms didn’t really happen in the early 1990s or since.

U.S. banks push harder in Africa

Two of the world’s biggest banks told the first day of the Reuters Africa Investment Summit that they planned to strengthen their presence in the continent as their own customers see their businesses here grow.

Citi’s Africa CEO, Naveed Riaz, said it may expand into three new African countries over the next 18 months to strengthen its corporate and investment banking business. He didn’t say which, but interestingly a return for Citi to Angola didn’t appear to be among the top targets despite its oil wealth.

Rival JP Morgan Chase said it was targeting representative offices in Ghana and Kenya this year and a full branch in Nigeria by next year. The bank’s sub-Saharan Africa CEO, John Coulter, said its business in Nigeria was already good but needed to be deepened.

Plenty of others see the opportunity in Africa’s giant too, as highlighted by the head of the Nigerian unit of South Africa’s Standard Bank. Chris Newson, head of Stanbic IBTC, told the summit he saw 20-25 percent loan growth over the next three to five years as demand for consumer and infrastructure finance increases.

Is the Africa story being pushed too hard? Not according to Washington-based private equity firm Emerging Capital Partners, which has raised more than $1.8 billion for African investments over the past 10 years.

“I can assure you there’s no bubble in Africa at the moment. Every guy in the elevator’s not pitching a deal here yet,” co-Chief Executive Hurley Doddy told Reuters in Lagos. “A fast-growing African economy can suck up a lot of capital unlike Asia or China. There are maybe too many private equity dollars chasing deals there, which is just not the case here.”

We’ll hear more during the week.