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Nigeria: Ten years of civilian rule
Nigeria marks its first 10 years of unbroken civilian rule on Friday after emerging from nearly three decades of uninterrupted military dictatorship on May 29, 1999.
The political elite in Africa’s top oil producer are rolling out the drums to celebrate the milestone. And why not?
Olusegun Obasanjo, a former military ruler who won elections in 1999, ended Nigeria’s pariah status and brought Africa’s most populous nation back into the international fold, helping secure an $18 billion debt write-off in 2005.
Managing anger in the Niger delta
Much of the news that comes out of the Niger Delta, the vast network of creeks home to Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry, is generated either by militant leaders claiming spectacular attacks on oil industry installations or by the military, keen to publicise its victories flushing out crude oil thieves from camps nestled deep in the mangroves.
Rarely heard are the voices of the “boys” who have taken up arms and make up the rank and file of the militant gangs. Oil theft on an industrial scale or kidnappings for ransom make some of their bosses rich. Peace negotiations see others rewarded with the veneer of political legitimacy and a comfortable new government-funded lifestyle. But the grunts tend to share little of the spoils.
There are two dialectical philosophies on the issue. Author Frantz Fannon (Wretched of the Earth) made clear that Africa and Africans are not likely to see better days until they use the very means (violence) that was used to push them to the very bottom of the human hierarchy. And the indomitable Chairman Mao once said that “power flows from the barrel of a gun.” Only when the exploiters are checkmated by the exploited can there be peaceful resolution of the long-running rapid descent of our homeland in economic deprivation and cultural collapse.
How ill is Nigeria’s president?
Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua left for Saudi Arabia more than two weeks ago for the Islamic obligation of the lesser Hajj, a pilgrimage to Mecca. Yar’Adua, who is known to have a chronic kidney problem, has sought medical attention in Jeddah and has still not returned, raising fears about the state of his health. A medical source in Saudi Arabia told Reuters he had undergone an operation.
Government and presidency officials have been tight-lipped about the president’s condition and have not said exactly when he will be back. The opposition has demanded clarity on the president’s health, adding that his absence is having an adverse effect on the workings of government and that the official silence is fuelling speculation and uncertainty.
Should the head of state’s health be a private issue or is it a matter of public interest? Is his prolonged absence from Nigeria a cause for concern? As governor of Katsina state, Yar’Adua spent several months abroad for medical treatment without attracting much public attention, only to return, complete his term and win another one. Can he expect to do the same as leader of the nation?
How Nigeria ended up with a president like Yaraduwa is still a misery to me. For how long do we have to let Corrupt people like Babangida dictate who our next leader is going to be? Why don’t we give people that are ready for change a chance? Since Yaraduwa stepped to office, I have not heard of or seen anything he has contributed to the well being of Nigeria. The idiots that we keep electing are already rich but just want to keep getting richer.
For those of you that stand on line to vote, You are just wasting your time. Your vote does not count. Right now, the top officials already know who the next president is going to be even before Yaraduwa’s time is up. I am Hausa and I believe that it is time for the Igbo people to get in power. Let’s see something different. All most Hausa politicians think of when they get in positions is how to embezzle money. As for Yaraduwa’s health condition, it is something that should have been disclosed to the public before he became the president. Anyway, sick or not, He makes no difference.
Colonial borders. Does Africa have a choice?
The lines of Europe’s carve up of Africa were finally taking shape. On March 11, 1913, Britain and Germany agreed who got which bits of a swampy corner of the continent that few in either of the cold and distant countries had heard of.
Two states that did not exist at that time put the border agreement into effect again on Thursday with Nigeria formally handing over the Bakassi peninsula to Cameroon.
The question isn’t really whether Africa should observe colonial borders, it’s whether a choice exists to do otherwise. I ask: what option exists? Even if by some miracle the lines on the map could be re-drawn, would we have each tribe be the master of its own country? Each and every linguistic group? Each and every religious sect? All national borders–as well as all states, provinces, parishes, canons, counties, cities, towns, and hamlets–are arbitrarily imposed by some group on another. With luck, they serve to unite disparate residents into a common cause that promotes and protects the greater good. What matters isn’t the borders or who drew them; it’s what good will lies in the hearts of the people within.
Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds
Rebels reject Niger Delta peace summit
Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua moved quickly after taking office a year ago to try to address the causes of unrest in the Niger Delta, where a violent campaign of sabotage against the oil industry has cut production and contributed to an unprecedented rise in world oil prices.
Yar’Adua announced plans for formal talks and freed two jailed militant leaders when he took office, but the peace process has made little real progress since then, with the rebel Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) continuing to blow up oil pipelines and kidnap foreign workers. The government has called a summit for July meant to involve all stakeholders, but MEND and another group — the Ijaw Youth Council — have said they will not take part. Yar’Adua has said the summit aims to address the frustrations of the Niger Delta communities, who have seen their land and water polluted by oil production, but he has also said his government will not tolerate the presence of armed militants in the region.
What are the options for the government — at federal and state level — in tackling the problems of the Niger Delta? Should the government negotiate with armed militants? Are the militants anything more than common criminals, profiting from an illicit trade in stolen crude? What role should the foreign oil companies play in bringing peace to the region?
Probably these political crooks never saw it coming that the people of Niger Delta could arise to a revolution. But what kind of revolution would have to do with kidnapping foreign oil workers for some absurd rasom. These people have heavily armed and are familiar with the labyrinth creeks of the delta. Why don’t they terrorise those who stole oil-money, those who rigged elections and installed their own cohorts to benefit their families.
Nigerians have been hurt badly because what is rightly ours’ has been taken away from us. These political crooks should confess, be judged or be “removed” from the society.
What’s the verdict on Nigeria’s Yar’Adua?
Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua took office a year ago promising to pursue free-market reforms launched by his predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, vowing zero tolerance for corruption and listing seven national priorities including improving power supply and reducing food insecurity.
A year on, his critics say economic reforms are grinding to a halt, his anti-corruption efforts are just window-dressing and his cabinet is largely a collection of ineffective bureaucrats who are but a shadow of an all-star cast in the former administration.
His supporters say his efforts to entrench the rule of law are a vital opportunity for Nigeria to make a break after decades of corruption and cronyism, and that while progress may be slow, he is laying the underpinnings for much stronger institutions in the country.
Does Yar’Adua have the political muscle he needs to lead Africa’s most populous nation? Is his oft-repeated mantra of the rule of law a step change in Nigeria? Or has the country lost the momentum it built up under Obasanjo? What do you think?
Isolated tribes? What in heaven’s name is Mr Woodcock talking about? It seems he doesn’t know much about Nigeria beyond the usual western stereotypes of Africans.
Talking Point: How will the presidential election tribunal’s verdict affect Nigeria?
A special Nigerian tribunal upheld the 2007 election of President Umaru Yar’Adua, rejecting challenges from rivals who wanted the vote annulled because of massive rigging. Yar’Adua’s two main rivals in last April’s election, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari and then Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, had asked the tribunal to annul the election, alleging widespread fraud, as pronounced by local and international observers.
The tribunal ruled that Buhari, Yar’Adua’s main opponent, had failed to prove that violations of the electoral law were substantial enough to invalidate the overall result. The five judges of the tribunal also rejected Abubakar’s challenge.
Read what leading analysts said before the ruling and have your say on how the tribunal’s dismissal of the challenges will impact on Nigeria’s politics and economy.
Patrick Smith, Africa Confidential (see full analysis) “Nigeria’s post-election crisis has taken a very different turn from Kenya’s. Unlike Kenya’s thwarted politicians, Nigeria’s opposition leaders are contesting the election results through the courts and this time seem to be confident of success – even if they have to take their claims to the Supreme Court.”
It’s “Myopia” all over again. The first elections in Nigeria were rigged in broad daylight by the British in favor of Northern Nigerian leaders whom the British preferred and picked (still do!) to rule Nigeria in perptuity. Since then, all elections in Nigeria have been rigged, each subsequent election beating the “performance” of the previous. The trend is set to continue, judging by present pointers. “Punditing” outside of this context nullifies credibility.
At this time, pundits should take off their dark “shades” to see the light and think and talk about the only viable alternative to Nigeria: individual Sovereign Independent Ethnic Nations in whatever configuration these Nations choose to relate with one another inter-Nationally. Each Nation can then conduct her own governance with credibility according to her own laid-down native customs and traditions.
Suffrage is not Democracy, nor is Democracy suffrage. The abuse and dehumanization of entire human populations in the name of “Democracy-through-suffrage” is quite primitive and unenlightened in the 21st Century. Incidentally, individual Independent Sovereign Ethnic Nations Paradigm solves Africa’s root- problem, the only hope if Africa is to get out of its rot.
So, the primary issue is not Nigeria’s 2007 rigged election being righted: forces are already gathered to rig the next one. The primary issue is that as long as Nigeria exists, there will be rigged elections, along with wastage of human lives, human potential and human dignity, and now, even goodwill. Rigged elections are only one of protean symptoms.
As they say: “it’s not the Elections, Stupid, it’s Nigeria!”
Nigeria faces the prospect of a quiet revolution
Nigeria’s post-election crisis has taken a very different turn from Kenya’s. Unlike Kenya’s thwarted politicians, Nigeria’s opposition leaders are contesting the election results through the courts and this time seem to be confident of success – even if they have to take their claims to the Supreme Court.
Along with many observers, I would say that Nigeria’s vote counting in April 2007 looked even more inventive than Kenya’s last December. Indeed, Nigeria’s President Umaru Yar’Adua has acknowledged that the widespread criticisms of the performance of the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission need to be addressed.
Yet in Nigeria, there are no visiting UN secretaries general, no high-level mediation and no talk of power-sharing. There’s just a simple demand from the opposition politicians – Abubakar Atiku and General Muhammadu Buhari – that the election should be rerun under an independent electoral commission.
I went down to the Niger Delta to report on the election last April where there had been several violent clashes before the elections. On the day before the Presidential elections in Bayelsa, a group of militants stormed into the state capital Yenagoa, released some of their comrades held in a police cell and blew a hole in a local hotel.
I hope the quiet revolution also quiets the internet fraudsters operating from Nigeria, and plaguing the world.
Judiciary could seize historic occasion to redeem battered image
The Nigerian judiciary, in trying to entrench the principle of the separation of powers and its independence, might seize the historic opportunity of the election tribunal to redeem its battered reputation. Hitherto the Court system was believed to be corrupt, slow and weak. However, election issues are not just criminal or of a Common Law dimension but have major implication son stability.
The judges will not be oblivious to the violence and chaos in Kenya and the possibility of a contagion across Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigerians remember too well the problems in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast and dread a repeat in their country. Therefore the judiciary could be caught between horns of a dilemma in trading off strong judicial precedents of obiter dieta in the defence of plural democracy and stability of the nation.
The immediate and remote consequences of any decision will impact on the political equilibrium, business/financial dynamics and the levers of control in Nigeria. Assuming that the election is annulled and a fresh one is held, the incumbent is expected to have a strategic advantage, assuming he can secure the nomination of his party, the PDP.
The PDP is already in the middle of a squabble over its leadership. Even though there are no strong ideological differences of opinion, the struggle and acrimony over control of the party is vicious. In the eye of the storm is ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo whose legacy and influence is being threatened. Therefore, even though conventional logic points to a no-contest for the incumbent, it will be fool-hardy to assume that Yar’Adua’s nomination is a fait accompli.
No guarantees a re-run poll will be more credible
There are a few things that strike me as curious about the process in Nigeria.
If the court says the April 2007 presidential election was unfair on the grounds that it was rigged – which is what Buhari and Atiku are arguing – presumably someone is guilty of the rigging.
It seems strange to say one candidate rigged an election to such a degree that it must be re-run, only then to allow that candidate to have another go, apparently without any censure or sanction.
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As noted by Bola-Wola Makinde, the independence date for Nigeria was in 1960 and not 1964.
Although, the military rule in Nigeria until 1999 was horrible, I am not sure the civilian rule has brought much welfare to people. The wealth of the country is still as unequally divided as during military rule and not much economic and social development has occurred since then, though civilian rule has managed to keep stability and increase freedom in the country