Long-suffering Kenyans have once again had their hopes dashed of a new era of political progress freed from the depredations of their notoriously venal politicians, after a wave of high-level corruption scandals and factional squabbling inside the government. 
 
President Mwai Kibaki first won power in 2002 riding a wave of popular support for his promises to end the corruption and  misgovernment of his predecessor, Daniel arap Moi. Disillusion soon set in with massive graft scandals that mirrored the worst of the Moi years tarnishing Kibaki’s image as a reformer.
 
Then hopes rose again last April when a “Grand Coalition” was formed between Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga to end two months of brutal ethnic bloodshed after a disputed election, in which at least 1,300 people died and 300,000 were forced from their homes. Despite the formation of the biggest and most expensive government since independence to pander to  the interests of both sides in the election dispute, there was optimism that a wind of change was blowing after decades of abuse by politicians pursuing only narrow tribal and regional interests as well as lining their own pockets.
 
Kenyans sick of the old political class had swept away more than 60 percent of parliament in a powerful vote for change. The new law-makers were said to be of a different cloth, more professional and educated and interested in the welfare of the nation .
 
Early signs were promising with Kibaki and Odinga reported to have struck up a strong and productive relationship and cooperating on policies that brushed aside the protests and pressures of powerful political pressure groups.
 
But the early optimism generated by the post-election settlement has dissipated less than a year later.  Squabbles between Kibaki’s PNU party and Odinga’s ODM, who accuse the president’s close supporters of bypassing them to force through controversial decisions they oppose, are so bad that a new 12-member committee has been set up to mediate within the government. The MPs, already among the world’s best paid, refused to back down on voting themselves fat tax-free allowances despite heavy criticism and pushed through a media bill seen both at home and outside Kenya as a blatant infringement of the rights of the country’s vibrant press - a powerful democratic force.
 
But worst of all, the recent revelation of a string of scandals ranging from the tourist authority to the theft of millions of dollars of petroleum products are a clear sign that not much has changed. The sheer scale of the accusations of graft has shocked many Kenyans. The most damaging is over the diversion of precious reserves of maize, Kenya’s staple food, to bogus millers while almost a third of the population are facing famine because of a long drought. As myriad scandals came to light, the heads of the cereals, petroleum and tourism authorities were all sacked. “In one year only, Kenyans have been treated to a magnitude of corruption they have never seen,” said Okong’o O’Mogeni of the Law Society of Kenya.
 
Foreign analysts say the coalition government is likely to survive its many disputes and will probably last until the next elections scheduled in 2012. None of the parties benefitting from the bloated coalition government are thought likely to want to precipitate a political crisis before then and much manoeuvring is focused on who will make a run for the presidency when Kibaki has to step down after his second term. The relative stability, unexpected when the post-election crisis ended in April, has encouraged positive forecasts for Kenya’s growth by 2010 in contrast to many other frontier markets.

But when will Kenyans get the honest politicians so many of them yearn for, so that this country can develop its full potential as a gateway to a wide swathe of central and eastern Africa and meet the government’s goal of turning it into a prosperous, well-governed country by 2012?

Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki’s New Year address had a sobering message; east Africa’s biggest economy should brace for a tough year because of the global financial crisis.

It was not the most encouraging message after a year that had few silver linings for the country of 36 million, still recovering from a bout of post-election violence early last year.

But the global crisis has strained even some of the world’s most advanced economies as well as many across Africa and Kibaki was not about to shield Kenyans from reality. He even cancelled the traditional New Year’s Eve state ball that is held in his official residence in Mombasa, on the steamy Indian Ocean coast.

Government minsters and officials, used to ushering in the New Year with a waltz with their spouses at the party, had to quickly make new plans for the occasion.

Indeed, redrawing plans, revising growth numbers and tightening belts is a routine which Kenyan officials are used to by now. Last week, the economic secretary in the ministry of finance told Reuters that growth estimates for 2008 had been lowered to less than 3.5-4 percent, down from an earlier forecast of 4.5-6 percent.

In the same week, the government stated its intention to declare a national emergency over a drought that has left about 10 million facing starvation.

In the trendy parts of Nairobi, all seems to be fine.

Young urban professionals still flock the numerous malls and coffee houses for a bit of shopping and animated catch-ups over drinks.

But underneath the calm, most have had to tighten their belts. A newspaper cartoonist depicted how hard times were forcing a rethink of cultural norms. Families were dispensing with the tradition of sharing a meal with visitors by asking them to carry their own food.

What expectations do you have for Kenya in 2009? How is the global crisis being felt elsewhere in Africa?

Only a few months ago, it seemed all doom and gloom for the Kenyan economy as post-election violence threatened to wipe out gains and stymy growth.
 
Tourists were cancelling safari and beach holidays in their droves. Gangs were rampaging around the agricultural heartlands. And few would dare to journey on roads full of boulders, burning tyres and knife-wielding youths.
 
Yet even back then, some analysts argued that East Africa’s strongest economy should be able to withstand the electoral crisis, provided it was brought to a rapid halt.

And stop it did, after President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga buried their differences over who won the Dec. 27 vote in a coalition government formed in April.
 
Now foreign and local investors have given a resounding thumbs-up to Kenya’s economy via the largest InItial Public Offering in the region’s history. The offer for mobile operator Safaricom was over-subscribed by 532 percent, shares leapt 50 percent in the first hours of trading and 860,000 people bought shares via the IPO. 
So is Safaricom indicative of Kenya’s recovery, or is there still a long way to go?
 
Have investors got over the shock they received earlier this year?
 
How does Kenya compare to other sub-Saharan African nations — neighbours Uganda and Tanzania; or heavyweights South Africa and Nigeria — as an investment destination? Which are the sectors to put money in?
 
And can the shaky coalition hold?
 

It took six weeks of intense negotiation to end Kenya’s post-election mayhem and another six weeks of haggling over a new power-sharing cabinet. The 41-member cabinet has now been sworn in, with President Mwai Kibaki sharing portfolios with opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement. Kibaki’s disputed re-election after Kenya’s Dec. 27 poll triggered the country’s worst post-independence crisis that killed more than 1,200 people and uprooted more than 300,000.

The African Union moved swiftly to end the turmoil in Kenya, sending former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan to mediate. He was back in Kenya on April 17 when the new cabinet was sworn in. Does the formation of the power-sharing cabinet mark a triumph for African diplomacy? Are there any lessons here for the post-election crisis in Zimbabwe? Has Kenya now turned the corner after the traumatic ethnic killings that battered its image as a comparatively stable African democracy and economy? What should be the priorities of the new cabinet? What measures need to be taken to resettle  displaced people, notably in the Rift Valley, and give them assurances of future security? What constitutional changes does Kenya need to ensure enduring peace and stability? Have your say.

Implementation of Kenya’s peace accord brokered by former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan in February to end post-election bloodshed has hit a logjam over power sharing. The accord provided for power sharing based on a political party’s relative strength in parliament. President Mwai Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) and opposition leader Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) both said in the first week of April that they had agreed on how to share 40 ministerial positions. But bickering started immediately. Both sides have traded accusations: the ODM said Kibaki’s side had reneged on a promise to cede key ministerial positions while the PNU accused the ODM of undermining negotiations with “new preconditions and ultimatums” in the 11th hour.

At issue is also the extent of Kibaki’s executive authority under the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, signed by both sides after post-election turmoil killed at least 1,200 people and uprooted some 300,000 from their homes.

NEXT MOVE

Kibaki has called on the opposition to engage “constructively” and said he is ready and willing to conclude formation of the coalition cabinet at the earliest possible opportunity. Odinga has suspended participation in the power-sharing talks until there was “clarity” on the oustanding issues. But he insists he is committed to a speedy implementation of the accord. 

Protests flared again over the deadlock, and many Kenyans who endured six weeks of mayhem after the disputed December 27 elections fear for the worse. The Kenyan shilling, the strongest barometer of confidence, slumped further against the the dollar on April 8, trading at 62.85/63.05. That compared with the highest level this year of 61.75/85 on April 4 after Kibaki and Odinga said they were ready to announce the new cabinet.

The accord states that the coalition can be broken if parliament is dissolved, or if the parties agree to it in writing, or if one party withdraws. Is Kenya now in danger of sliding towards longer uncertainty? Is renewed unrest inevitable? What is the way out of this impasse? Have your say.

Kenya’s political rivals signed a long-anticipated peace deal after power-sharing talks to end mayhem over disputed Dec. 27 elections that has killed 1,000 people. The agreement followed tortuous talks mediated by former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan and pressure from home and abroad on President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga to make compromises to avert severe damage to East Africa’s biggest economy.

Have your say on the terms of the power-sharing deal, the prospect for a quick return to normality in Kenya or on what it would take to secure the peace accord.

Here is the full text of the agreement:
ACTING TOGETHER FOR KENYA: AGREEMENT ON THE PRINCIPLES OF PARTNERSHIP OF THE COALITION GOVERNMENT.

Preamble:
The crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential election has brought to the surface deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. If left unaddressed, these divisions threaten the very existence of Kenya as a unified country. The Kenyan people are now looking to their leaders to ensure that their country will not be lost.
Given the current situation, neither side can realistically govern the country without the other. There must be real power-sharing to move the country forward and begin the healing and reconciliation process.
With this agreement, we are stepping forward together, as political leaders, to overcome the current crisis and to set the country on a new path. As partners in a coalition government, we commit ourselves to work together in good faith as true partners, through constant consultation and willingness to compromise.
This agreement is designed to create an environment conducive to such a partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence. It is not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole. It provides the means to implement a coherent and far-reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure, more prosperous Kenya for all.
To resolve the political crisis, and in the spirit of coalition and partnership, we have agreed to enact the National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, whose provisions have been agreed upon in their entirety by the parties hereto and a draft copy is appended hereto.

Its key points are:
* There will be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya, with authority to coordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government of Kenya.
* The Prime Minister will be an elected member of the National Assembly and the parliamentary leader of the largest party in the National Assembly, or of a coalition, if the largest party does not command a majority.
* Each member of the coalition shall nominate one person from the National Assembly to be appointed a Deputy Prime Minister.
* The Cabinet will consist of the President, the Vice-President, the Prime Minister, the two Deputy Prime Ministers and the other Ministers. The removal of any Minister of the coalition will be subject to consultation and concurrence in writing by the leaders.
* The Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote.
* The composition of the coalition government will at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance and will reflect their relative parliamentary strength.
* The coalition will be dissolved if the Tenth Parliament is dissolved; or if the parties agree in writing; or if one coalition partner withdraws from the coalition.
* The National Accord and Reconciliation Act shall be entrenched in the Constitution.

Having agreed on the critical issues above, we will now take this process to Parliament. It will be convened at the earliest moment to enact these agreements. This will be in the form of an Act of Parliament and the necessary amendment to the Constitution.
We believe by these steps we can together in the spirit of partnership bring peace and prosperity back to the people of Kenya who so richly deserve it.