On the evening of the 20th of March 1878, Ethiopia’s two great rivals, Emperors Yohannes IV and Menelik II, came face-to-face to thrash out their differences.

As the two men met for the first time, traditional Ethiopian singers are said to have sang “A road that is perilous is far / you have to climb and then descend.”

Ethiopia’s journey since then has certainly been perilous.

It has been marked by great heights like the defeat of Italy’s colonialist army at the battle of Adwa in 1895. And devastating lows such as the 1984 famine that killed more than 1 million people and brought the country long-lasting notoriety.

The huge nation is again heading into interesting times.

This week the government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi agreed a code of conduct for next May’s national elections with three opposition parties — two of which are dismissed by opponents as ruling party satellites.

But the biggest opposition force, a coalition of eight parties called Medrek (the Forum), did not participate in the negotiations despite repeated invitations.
 
Medrek said issues including reform of the national electoral board and access to the media were left out. But some Ethiopians suspect that opposition leaders just can’t stand the thought of sitting down with government negotiators.

And a lot of the opposition parties seem to despise each other, too.
 
Ethiopian politicians love to talk about democracy. It’s presented as the ultimate political goal for a country that has never had a peaceful transition of power.
 
The government talks about democracy. But is routinely accused of harassment and intimidation. Opposition parties talk about democracy. But most of them won’t even try to talk to those in power about how to make it a reality.
 
And they all disagree on how close they are to finally achieving it.
 
“Ethiopia believes it is an emerging democracy,” the government’s head of information Bereket Simon told me this week. “We cannot say we have perfect governance yet. But, on balance, we are moving forward.”
 
Yet the opposition says there is no democracy at all and accuses the government of using the code of conduct negotiations to hoodwink the West — on which it still relies for huge amounts of humanitarian aid.

Ethiopia’s last national elections in 2005 ended in disaster when a previous opposition coalition said the government fixed its victory and street violence broke out in the capital Addis Ababa in which almost 200 protesters were killed.

Many Ethiopians tell me they were so disheartened by that experience that they have lost interest in voting. 2005 also entrenched extremism on both sides.
 
Some diplomats in Addis Ababa are putting pressure on Medrek to talk to the government, telling its leaders they believe Meles is acting in good faith.
 
And the government says Medrek can still get involved in ongoing talks.
 
So, no matter how bitter the rivalry, why haven’t Ethiopia’s main powerbrokers today been able to talk to each other as happened more than a century ago?

Who’s right about how close Ethiopia is to democracy? How can a poor country secure a prosperous future? What are the solutions? Is democracy even one of them?

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi agreed to sit down with Reuters on Wednesday only hours before leaving for the G8 summit in Italy. He told us he planned to remind the rich leaders he met there that the economic slowdown and global warming are having a disproportionate effect on Africa. And that the world’s poorest continent did nothing to cause them.

The former rebel represented Africa at this year’s G20 summit of rich nations and is arguing the case on behalf of the continent again today and tomorrow. Continental spokesman seems a roll Meles — who has a passionate interest in economics — is comfortable with. But he told us it was only related to his job as Ethiopian Prime Minister and that he has no desire to take on a pan-African job if and when he retires as leader — something he has recently said he has plans to do.

“The key message for us is to ask the G8 to live up to their commitments,” Meles said, looking relaxed in his Addis Ababa office as he prepared to fly off to Rome. “The promise (from the G20 summit) was that something like $50 billion dollars would be made available to poorer countries. Slightly more than $20 billion of that is on hand. The rest needs to be fulfilled.”

The Ethiopian leader also said Africa’s myriad problems were being compounded by global
warming and it was essential that the continent be compensated by the rich world at
environment talks due for Denmark in December.

“Many institutions have tried to quantify (the amount of compensation) and they have come up with different figures,” Meles said. “The sort of median figure would be in the range of $40 billion a year.”

But some analysts think that figure is very ambitious, especially bearing in mind that only $20 billion of the $50 billion promised at G20 has so far made it into the hands of those to whom it’s been promised.

Meles certainly sounded like he was heading off to the G8 with a full plate of issues and ideas for the world’s richest nations.

The problem is that fewer big initiatives are expected to be agreed in Rome as there were at the G20.

So what’s the best he, and Africa, can really hope for?

Is the developed world to blame for the economic difficulties the world’s poorest are facing? If so, what should it do? And should Africa be compensated for climate change?

They say that the foundation of a good retirement is planning. By that measure, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi should have his rest period well laid out. The rebel-turned-leader has been saying he wants to step aside for almost two years now.

But after 18 years at the helm of one of the world’s poorest countries the 54-year-old is still in power and says he is trapped by the wishes of his ruling party. They will discuss his desire to retire at an executive committee meeting next month and a September congress would give him the opportunity to ask the party for his twilight years.

Some analysts say his repeated hope for freedom - with the condition of party acceptance - is a ruse to make Meles appear more democratic than he is, while others say he feels he has taken the country as far as he can and covets a high-profile international position in the United Nations or the African Union.

The problem is that many in the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) do not want to see their internationally recognisable leader go and may question his loyalty in an attempt to keep him in the driving seat as Ethiopia heads into an uncertain political and economic landscape ahead of its June 2010 national elections.

The father of two - who has a fascination with economics and represented Africa at the G20 summit - has presided over years of double-digit growth for the desperately poor country but has watched the global recession undo much of that progress.

And analysts and diplomats are divided on how next year’s elections will turn out.

A 2005 poll, touted as Ethiopia’s first truly democratic elections, ended in brutality when the government declared victory and the opposition said the result was fixed.

Police and soldiers then killed about 200 opposition protesters who had taken to the streets after Meles said they were attempting to topple the government.

Opposition leaders were jailed after Meles blamed them for orchestrating that violence and have made little impact since their release in a 2007 pardon deal. They say that is because of government harassment but the government denies that.

Ethiopians go to the polls again in June 2010 and analysts are divided on the question of whether the elections will pass off peacefully and without accusations of rigging.

And the straight-talking leader, hailed as a new hope for Africa when he overthrew a communist regime in 1991, has become a focus for rights groups who say he is cracking down on dissent again. One opposition leader has been jailed and 32 of former and serving military officers have been charged with plotting a coup.

The fact that the leader’s human rights record is questionable frustrates many Addis Ababa-based foreign diplomats who had admired Ethiopia’s economic development and poverty reduction schemes before the financial crisis started to unravel the good work.

With the opposition weakened it seems that a successor for Meles is likely to come from within his own party. EPRDF members have told me that Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, Health Minister Tewodros Adhanom and Trade Minister Girma Birru are the most likely successors.

Should Meles step down, analysts and potential investors will closely watch his successor to see whether opposition parties are given more freedom or whether the EPRDF becomes more authoritarian so it can hold on to power beyond 20 years.

So does Meles really want to step down? Will his party let him? What will his legacy be? And what will become of Africa’s second most populous nation if he resigns?

(Photos: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi speaks to the media at his office in April, Reuters/Irada Humbatova (top); Ethiopian tour guide in Mequat Mariam, northern Ethiopia, Reuters/Barry Malone.)

African countries often complain about getting a bad press. They say there’s much more to the continent than war and poverty and starvation. Then there’s the huge coverage given to the International Criminal Court and the fact that all four cases the body is now considering come from Africa.

But what’s strange about the complaints is that the world’s poorest continent is the most heavily represented in the ICC, with 30 member countries. In the March 2009 elections for ICC judges, 12 out of the 19 candidates were Africans nominated by African governments. And Fatou Bensouda, the court’s Deputy Prosecutor, is from Gambia.

Of the four files before the court, the cases on Democractic Republic of Congo, Uganda and the Central African Republic were referred to the court by those very governments. The controversial fourth case, the indictment of Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir for war crimes, was put before the court by the United Nations Security Council.

The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for the leader of the huge oil-exporting country to face charges of war crimes during almost six years of fighting in Sudan’s violent Darfur region — but he has refused to deal with the court.

It was that case, heavily opposed on the continent, that brought the 30 African ICC members together in Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa for an unprecedented meeting last week after calls from some countries that the Africans should withdraw en masse.

That didn’t happen and diplomats told me only Libya, Senegal, Djibouti and the Comoros islands had seriously lobbied the meeting for a total withdrawal. Reporters were kept well outside the conference room and security seemed tighter than usual but, even from a distance we could hear some very angry exchanges coming from inside. And the frustration written all over the faces of delegates as the meeting stretched into the night seemed to indicate there were serious disagreements on the issue.

But, in the end, they told us nothing and simply said they would make recommendations to their heads of state. Most African countries want the indictment against Bashir deferred for one year and the African Union says it will compromise peace efforts in Darfur. The 53-member organisation is also calling for a one-year deferral.

“The pursuit of peace can be deadly impacted upon if players, including a head of state, are denied even the fundamental presumption of innocence,” AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamara told delegates before the meeting began.

His boss, AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping, has repeatedly accused the ICC of having an unhealthy fixation on African leaders and says it should look elsewhere, too.

So is the African Union right? Is the ICC unfair to Africa and could the warrant for Bashir compromise peace efforts in Darfur? Or is the fact that every case before the court comes from Africa simply a true reflection of the continent’s problems?

Journalists covering African countries rarely get involved in the sort of celebrity circus so common for those working elsewhere. But the Ethiopian presspack got a window into a different world when boxing legend Evander Holyfield rolled into Addis Ababa.

Decked out in a green safari suit and propping up the bar in one of the city’s plusher hotels the four-time heavyweight world champion happily posed for photos with locals and was the focus of attention for a gaggle of Ethiopia’s famously beautiful women.

The 46-year-old - who recently came out of retirement amid rumours of financial trouble - says he’s in Africa to fight a benefit bout to raise money for HIV/AIDS charities.

“If we don’t find a cure to this, we’ll be extinct,” he said.

Holyfield — remembered for having part of his ear bitten off in a 1997 fight with Mike Tyson — also told us he was planning yet another shot at the world title in September.

His opponent, little-known Ethiopian-born American Sammy Retta, stayed silent for most of the press conference but compared the fight to the famous 1974 “Rumble in the Jungle” between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman.

The comparison seems a bit of a stretch. This match won’t even be on television and instead will only be available online. 

Africa’s second most populous country has more than 1.7 million people living with HIV/AIDS and, as one of the world’s poorest countries, certainly needs the help.

But the financial details remain sketchy. Neither the American nor the Ethiopian organisers said they knew how much it was going to cost, exactly how much was going to be raised for chaity or even how much the boxers were going to be paid.

“We’ll raise five million dollars,” said one organiser. Then, after a pause: “Ten million.”

“As it’s for charity, will you be fighting for free?” I asked.

Holyfield’s gaze remained steady as promoter Everton Boland — flamoboyantly dressed in an electric blue suit and wraparound shades — took it upon himself to answer.

“Ain’t no boxer fighting for free,” he said and then collapsed into chuckles.

One Ethiopian journalist then asked the question that scared everyone else.

“So,” he asked, standing perilously within arm’s reach of the champ.

“How’s that ear coming along?”

Holyfield considered him silently, his left eyebrow beginning to raise ever so slightly.

“Well he heard your question, didn’t he!” shouted Boland and fell about laughing again.

The fight takes place on July 26.

A plot is defined as “a plan made in secret”, but even by the usual shadowy nature of such matters around Africa, the recent conspiracy to overthrow the Ethiopian government has been hard to see clearly.

The story broke two weeks ago when the government of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said 40 men had been arrested for planning a coup after police found guns, bombs and “written strategies” at their homes. But a few days later the government communication office was asking journalists not to use the word coup anymore. The “desperados”, they said, had planned to “overthrow” the government by using assassinations and bombings to create enough chaos to get supporters on the streets to topple the government.

The sensitivity surrounding the language and the details of what was actually going on highlight the caution that still exists in sub-Saharan Africa’s second most populous country after a disputed 2005 election ended with police and soldiers killing about 200 opposition street protesters who were marching on government buildings.

Understandably, many Ethiopians are sceptical that people would take to the streets again. And others question whether the will is still there to march against a government that most analysts consider the most effective the desperately poor nation Horn of Africa has ever had.

The suspected involvement of an Ethiopian-American university professor was a detail that caught the interest of the international media. Berhanu Nega, who called the accusation “baseless”, was elected mayor of Addis Ababa after the 2005 poll but was imprisoned along with about 100 other opposition members when the government accused them of orchestrating the street protests.

He was released in 2007 after a pardon deal and soon fled to America, where he teaches economics at Bucknell University in Philadelphia. Another leader released as part of that pardon, 36-year-old former judge Birtukan Mideksa, was rearrested last year after the government said she violated the terms of the pardon. She remains in prison.

Ethiopians love to talk politics in the bars and cafes of capital Addis Ababa — often in very hushed tones, which is perhaps a hangover from 17 years of brutally repressive communist rule that ended when the rebel group led by Meles came to power in 1991.

And the “coup” is now the subject of those whispered chats. Some say there was a real threat to the government that came from Berhanu and his allies in the sizeable and vocal diaspora. Some say there was dissent in the military and Berhanu simply provided a convenient excuse for the government to move against that in its early stages.

And one opposition leader even told me that the government may have invented the coup plot so it could arrest potential politicians ahead of national elections due in 2010.

“Without third party verification I can’t believe there was a plot,” said Bulcha Demeksa, leader of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement.

Amnesty International now says the government is arresting more people in secret.

This intriguing story will surely develop over the weeks to come as the Ethiopian government has said it is preparing evidence that will be presented before “an independent judiciary” and has promised the 40 accused will appear in an Addis Ababa court next week.

What sort of truth will emerge from the shadows?

(Photos: Prime Minister Meles Zenawi speaks to the media in his office in Addis Ababa, April 13, 2009; (bottom) The shadow of a supporter of Ethiopia’s Unity for Democracy and Justice party (UDJ) is seen through an Ethiopian flag during a demonstration in the capital Addis Ababa, April 16, 2009, both by Irada Humbatova).