Africa News blog

Has Kenya learned from the 2007/2008 post-election violence?

By Isaac Esipisu

Kenya is set to hold in December of this year its first elections since the 2007 vote that was marred by deadly violence. The east African country’s election will come under intense scrutiny because it will be the first under a new constitution and the first since the 2007 poll in which more than 1,220 people were killed, mostly in post-election violence.

The bloodshed and property destruction were unprecedented. Many Kenyans were rendered homeless as well; many as I write are still leaving as internally displaced persons (IDPs)

The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor later named six people suspected of bearing the greatest responsibility for the post-election violence in 2007. The ICC’s move was viewed by optimists as the end of the country’s culture of impunity, but pessimists feared it could spark a new round of ethnic blood-letting.

Proponents of the Hague process see it as the only way of achieving justice in a country where those in high office have never been brought to account for their actions

Later this year ICC announced cases of crimes against humanity against four out of the six suspected, including two top presidential contenders — Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. It has been argued that Kenyatta and Ruto cannot contest the presidency after being charged by the ICC with crimes against humanity.

In Ivory Coast, democracy – but not quite as we know it

In the bad old days of post-colonial Africa, dictators would hail their landslide re-elections as a demonstration of the will of an adoring people while international observers would dismiss the polls as electoral farce.   In the brave new Africa, it is often the other way round.   In Ivory Coast this week, the U.N. mission chief is going out of his way to hail the election as broadly democratic, while both incumbent Laurent Gbagbo and rival Alassane Ouattara have complained the vote has been marred by intimidation of their supporters.   So what is going on? Two things, at least.   Electorates are becoming more sophisticated and literate, although there is still often a big gap between urban and rural voters. Election monitoring, while still a tough job, has also improved. And even the most authoritarian of rulers knows donors will not be best pleased at any sign of meddling with monitors’ work. In Ivory Coast, there is particularly close scrutiny because the poll has costs donors $400 million and they want their money’s worth.   Put simply, it is harder to rig an election these days.   Secondly, much of the international strategy for dealing with post-crisis countries like Ivory Coast or perpetual-crisis countries like neighbouring Guinea rests is based on the hope that democratic elections will make things better.   The fear is that if the election turns out to be a joke, then the strategy falls apart. It is therefore in the interest of the internationals to defend the credibility of the vote.   The presidential race in Ivory Coast is an undeniably tight contest  — neither Gbagbo nor Ouattara can hope to achieve the 96.7 percent score achieved last year by Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema in a much-criticised poll.   In that sense what is playing out in Abidjan at the moment is broadly positive — an attempt to stage a free and fair poll.   Yet what is troubling is the hiatus between the close of polls on Sunday and the announcement of preliminary results not due until Wednesday. The ballots should be pretty much in from the provinces and tallied up by now. So why the wait?   Speculation is inevitably mounting of behind-the-scenes wrangling over the vote. The local diplomatic corps is urging the two candidates to accept whatever result emerges. Perhaps there are well-meaning efforts going on to soften the blow for whomever has lost it — and reduce the risk of trouble.   The next couple of days will show just how ready for democracy Ivory Coast and its leaders really are.

Guinea’s election – press conferences or scrums?

It remains to be seen if either candidate in Guinea’s presidential election knows how to run a country.

But after Sunday’s run-off election, during which the candidates wanted to say a few words to journalists after casting their ballots, it is clear that neither knows how to run a press conference.

Both events were like 1990s grunge mosh pits, only without the band, and with heavily armed soldiers herding the cameramen, photographers and text journalists together into a sweating and nervous mass.

Cellou Dallein Diallo’s took the cake. First of all, he was four hours later than initially scheduled. That gave the press corps lots of time to quietly set up cameras and tripods around his polling station, everyone negotiating sensibly and amicably for position. But it was all for nothing.

The scene suddenly exploded upon his arrival, with bulky soldiers in red berets and carrying automatic weapons storming through the journalists to make way for Diallo. People fell over backwards into the neighbourhood kids, who were chanting and leaping, pushing the other way in a volatile mix.

At one point, a soldier started whacking someone with the antenna of his walkie-talkie, sending the victim stumbling backwards into a table.

For a small taste of what it was like in Guinea during the Nov. 7 vote, have a look at this video.

Uganda election: Exciting start, what next?

If the potential success of an election could be judged by the excitement generated by its first day of campaigning, then Uganda is set for an excellent poll.

It can’t, of course, but it was heartening to see both ruling party and opposition supporters whooping it around capital Kampala yesterday ahead of a February 18th voting day that most think will be nothing but a foregone conclusion.

Thousands of screaming, singing, stomping supporters danced through town from the Nelson Mandela Stadium where the presidential candidates received their nomination papers to the sites of a couple of huge political rallies.

Hundreds more hurtled about the place on the “boda boda” motorcycles that ferry paying passengers around the city, revving the engines loudly in support.

Such was the excitement that the Reuters team had trouble battling through the crowds of people supporting opposition leader, Kizza Besigye.

Here’s a small snapshot of what we saw out the window:

Nigeria’s Jonathan flying high

Would you order three new jets just so your successor could use them?

President Goodluck Jonathan is keeping Nigerians guessing as to whether he plans to stand in elections due next January, but suspicions are growing that he will eventually decide to contest.

Plans he has set out range from boosting power supply – perhaps Nigeria’s most critical need – to improving roads. Those are certainly not projects that anyone could complete quickly. On Wednesday, cabinet approved the purchase of three presidential jets at a cost of $150 million – adding to the suspicions he sees himself making use of them.

But there remains the question of Nigeria’s careful ethnic political dance. Jonathan must win over northerners who believe they deserve another turn at the presidency because late President Umaru Yar’Adua, a Muslim northerner, died in office. In another possible sign of Jonathan trying to win favour in the north, he appointed two female opposition members from the region to his cabinet this week.

It can’t be easy for anyone who becomes president to turn down the chance to stay in office – particularly at the urging of supporters constantly assuring you that you can do the job better than anyone else.

Do you see the signs leading to Jonathan staying in office next year? Or could the government be trying to spend what it can in the limited time it may have to run?

A journalist’s guide to covering Sudan politics

Sudan’s opposition is often criticized for being unable to unite. And on Thursday night they didn’t disappoint.

The chaotic scenes after a meeting to discuss whether to boycott Sudan’s upcoming elections left most reporters dazed and confused, especially those who were new to politics in Africa’s largest country.

Here is a short guide of how to cover Sudanese politics (or not):

Rule #1: Never make plans around a press conference:

When they say the meeting is at 1900, it inevitably starts at 2100. Much of a foreign correspondent’s time is spent waiting around for meetings which begin hours late, take hours to finish and are followed by a press conference which lasts almost as long.

Unfortunately a journalist’s biggest fear is to miss the story — so we have to arrive on time – just in case.

Sometimes that works against us. Some colleagues actually missed a plane taking them to a political party campaign in Darfur because they were too early.

A new dawn for Sudanese press freedom?

Hosting a rare debate between Sudan’s much-maligned National Elections Commission (NEC) and opposition parties, the privately owned Blue Nile television was taking a risk broadcasting live to the nation.

In a country where, ahead of April’s first multi-party elections in 24 years, party political broadcasts are pre-recorded and censored, the evening promised to be fun.

As the NEC sat on stage in a hall full of opposition politicians, most of whom accuse the NEC of bias towards the ruling National Congress Party, the panel began a long explanation of the history of the elections and the preceding census.   After 15 minutes, nerves began to fray.    Even the five-second delay in transmission was not enough to cover up a walk-out sparked by the last democratically elected Prime Minister’s daughter, Mariam al-Mahdi, as it became clear the “debate” was more of a lecture.

After semi-whispered discussions, the other main opposition parties followed her lead, leaving a lonely few government employees, independent candidates and other stragglers to fill up the empty seats up front.

The “debate” was somewhat derailed by the walk-out and the raised voices outside the hall as organisers frantically tried to rescue the programme.

“They are not serious,” al-Mahdi, from the opposition Umma Party, complained as she stormed out of the building.

Togo’s tension: democracy vs. stability

Maybe it was too early in the morning. Or perhaps their hearts just weren’t in it.

Whatever the case, a rally called by Togo ‘s opposition leaders for early Tuesday — meant to voice full-throated outrage over the March 4 election they say was rigged to favour the incumbent — was a near no-show.

Not even the opposition leaders turned up.

“It was a thousand or so youths, they burned a couple of tires and the police dispersed them,” said a Reuters witness. “The opposition leaders did not even come.”

Unclear if this was a good thing.

Togo’s March 4 election was seen as a test for democracy in Africa, a continent notorious for coups and flawed polls that have undermined efforts toward civilian rule. International observers have said the poll appeared fair.

But it was also seen as a test for Togo’s own ability to come through a presidential vote without bloodshed.

Nigeria’s political merry go round

Nigeria’s ruling party made clear this week it wanted to see another northerner as the candidate for the 2011 presidential election, according to its principle of rotating power. That makes it harder (if not impossible) to see how Acting President Goodluck Jonathan might ever contest the ballot since he is from the Niger Delta in the south.

The Peoples Democratic Party’s unwritten rule of rotating power through Nigeria’s regions every two presidential terms – for these purposes there are six regions – was thought up on the return to civilian rule in 1999 because until then power had largely rotated among northerners, most of them in uniform.

The ethnic mosaic in a country created as a colonial convenience presented a similar challenge to that across many other African states and it seemed as though this would be a fair way to ensure that everyone eventually got a ‘turn to eat’ -  in the words of Michela Wrong’s book on Kenyan corruption.

But new questions, and some old ones, have been raised over the idea since Vice-President Jonathan had to step up as Nigeria’s leader because President Umaru Yar’Adua, a northerner, fell ill and became unable to rule Africa’s most populous nation before the end of his first term in office.

If a northerner is elected to replace Yar’Adua, then will this be someone who will serve only the one term allotted under the rules of the Peoples’ Democratic Party rather than someone who would seek the two permitted by the constitution? Why does rotation have to follow after two terms? Why not one, or in this case perhaps three?

If it is assumed that talent is spread evenly through Nigeria’s six zones, then does that mean that five times out of six there is likely to be a more talented individual from another part of the country who cannot contest simply because he or she is from the wrong place?

If the party keeps winning elections – and there is no absolute guarantee of that – it means either the South-South zone, home to most of Nigeria’s oil reserves, or the South-East, where some have felt marginalised since a failed separatist civil war in the 1960s, will not have the chance to elect a president before 2031. Is that fair?

Nigerian president on the way back?

So Nigerian President Umaru Yar’Adua has ended weeks of silence with comments on the BBC that he is getting better and hopes to be back home soon.

That at least appears to have answered speculation in local media that he could be brain damaged, in a coma or even dead.

But it hasn’t satisfied critics who say that to fulfil his constitutional duties he should be handing over powers to Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan, at least temporarily.

“Whether he is alive or brain damaged or spoke to the BBC is not our bone of contention. He left a vacuum which we want filled,” as one put it.

It has been a particularly difficult time with Yar’Adua away and doubts over his future.

Not only has the speculation slowed government in Nigeria and fuelled the maneuvering by politicians only too eager at the unexpected chance for an opening to power, but Nigeria has come under new pressure internationally following the failed plane bombing by a Nigerian passport holder.

J. Peter Pham, senior fellow and director of the Africa Project at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, recently suggested that Yar’Adua’s death or further decline in 2010 could lead to major instability or even a slide towards a failed state.