Africa News blog

Is Zuma home and dry after Malema’s expulsion?

By Cosmas Butunyi

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress may have expelled the rubble-rousing youth league president, Julius Malema, but challenges still remain for President Jacob Zuma, who is seeking a second term in a race that he is considered the frontrunner.

Observers say that Malema, who is considered one of the most prominent members of the party to openly break from Zuma, still can be a thorn in his side even though he is permanently barred from party-related events. He may use his expulsion to sharpen his criticism against Zuma’s government.

Zakhele Ndlovu, a political analyst at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, says that while numerous predictions are being made of a possible Zuma victory in December, ‘anything can happen’ due to the changing balance of power in the party.

“People who sympathise with him could become influential and bring him back,” Zakhele told Reuters.

It is nearly impossible for Malema to return to the party before its electoral meeting at the end of the year. He would first need the approval of the ANC’s National Executive Committee, which is led by Zuma and stacked with his supporters. Even if he were to win over the NEC, Malema does not have the support of ANC delegates now to win reinstatement.

South Africa’s birthday party that isn’t

It is exactly one hundred years today since the formation of the Union of South Africa, but there are no signs of celebration over that. What exactly is the Union, you might ask? On May 31 1910, the southern part of Africa that is today known as the Republic of South Africa became a unitary state under British dominion in pretty much the geographical shape which exists to this day.

Given that for most South Africans, history from 1910 until the end of white minority rule in 1994 was one of exclusion and oppression there may be understandable reasons why it is not a date to be accompanied by mass celebrations.

 But is that any reason why it should be forgotten? Hasn’t South Africa changed enough in 16 years that all races could see it as an important enough date in their common history to want to mark it?

 Giving his State of the Nation speech earlier this year, President Jacob Zuma noted the upcoming anniversary and the fact that the exclusion of black people in the Union led to the formation of the African National Congress in 1912. 

“We should reflect on how far we have travelled as a country,” he said..

 But is anybody really doing that with the soccer World Cup just 10 days away? And is it a day that South Africans should recognize as part of their collective history?  Like them or not, there is no escaping the facts of South Africa’s history.

Happy Union Day if it means anything to you.

Was Zuma right to reveal HIV status?

 South African President Jacob Zuma has disclosed that he is HIV negative after his most recent test for the virus that causes AIDS.  Zuma said he wanted “to promote openness and to eradicate the silence and stigma that accompanies this epidemic” in a country which has more people infected with the virus than any other – an estimated five million.

 Some South Africans had been calling on Zuma for a while to release the results of HIV tests and not just to take them. But critics now say Zuma could be sending the wrong message by saying he is HIV negative because of a lifestyle that has involved numerous affairs as well as marriages (he currently has three wives and a fiancée).

 In 2006, he acknowledged during a trial for rape, of which he was acquitted, that he did not use a condom during sex with a woman he knew to be HIV positive but said he took a shower afterwards in the hope of reducing the infection risk.

“So showering after sex DOES work!” said a blogger on the ‘Mail and Guardian website.

But some also applauded the president for setting a good example to younger South Africans by getting tested and being willing to reveal the results – although not putting pressure on others to do so. Was Zuma right to reveal his HIV status? And should other African leaders follow suit?

Violence and tension come at worst time for World Cup

World Cup organisers probably dreamed of a placid, trouble-free final countdown to the soccer spectacular, with all the fears about crime, bad transport and accommodation shortages pushed to the background for Africa’s biggest sports extravaganza. Sadly for them, they are getting the opposite. It would be difficult to conjure up a more unfortunate set of events less than 60 days before the tournament. Simmering racial tensions have burst into the open because of the murder of white supremacist Eugene Terre’blanche and the diatribes of Julius Malema, leader of the youth wing of South Africa’s ruling African National Congress, who refuses to pipe down despite tough reprimands from President Jacob Zuma and other party officials. Even before what must be looking to hapless officials like a perfect storm, scenes had become commonplace of township residents rioting around South Africa against lack of improvements in their lives some 16 years after the end of apartheid. To add to the torture for World Cup officials while the spotlight is fixed on South Africa, municipal workers have declared an indefinite strike over wages, threatening the chaotic scenes seen last year when rubbish was strewn over the streets. South Africa’s biggest labour federation has threatened strikes during the tournament to protest against big hikes in power prices. All of this illustrates the point that countries or cities staging major world events suddenly become fixed in an often uncomfortable glare of world attention as the big day approaches. But even by these standards, South Africa looks unfortunate. World Cup officials, led by chief organiser Danny Jordaan, have spent literally years fending off suggestions that soccer fans will be in mortal danger in South Africa, which has one of the globe’s highest rates of violent crime. Jordaan and others have repeated a familiar mantra– the country has staged 150 sports and other events since the end of apartheid with little problem, millions of tourists have enjoyed South Africa’s many attractions for years without major criminal attacks and protecting a finite event is a lot less complex than overcoming the national crime wave–especially since 40,000 police have been mobilised to do only that.

Nevertheless, many foreign fans and even visiting journalists are anxious about security and alarmist media reports have undoubtedly deterred some, especially it seems in Germany–hosts of the last event. What could be worse then, as the final countdown begins, than the events of the last week or so? Terre’blanche was hacked and bludgeoned to death on April 3 in a killing whose brutality seemed almost calculated to set off new anxiety about visiting South Africa, even though police believe it was a simple criminal, rather than racial, attack. Terre’blanche’s own fringe AWB party lost no time in telling foreign journalists that overseas fans would be in danger during the World Cup and most reports on the killing mentioned the tournament’s approach. The most extreme reaction came from the U.K. tabloid the Daily Star which said English fans risked a “machete race war” –sparking howls of protest in South Africa. All of this has been made a lot worse by Malema, a firebrand demagogue who had hitherto been apparently used by some of the ANC to hit at leftwingers in the party and to mobilise the youth vote, but who now seems to have got out of control. Terre’blanche’s supporters say that Malema’s insistence on reviving an apartheid-era song “Kill the Boer” — which has now been banned by the courts –was the direct cause of the murder. Zuma said on Sunday, in an unusually strong reprimand, that Malema’s comments and actions, including calling a BBC journalist a bastard and throwing him out of a press conference, were alien to the ruling party. Malema remained defiant despite the rebuke.

Can things get any worse? Well the impact of even these events is debatable. The timing is undoubtedly deeply unfortunate, but reports that foreign fans are newly anxious about violence are matched by others saying they remain unmoved. One of the more surprising statistics in FIFA’s latest bulletin on ticket sales is that Americans–usually sensitive to reports about overseas danger spots– are the biggest foreign buyers of tickets and have grabbed nearly 120,000 of the 2.2 million seats sold, way above the 67,000 purchased in Britain. Jordaan, clearly deeply frustrated by repeated questioning about security, looked bemused last week when he was besieged by questions about Terre’blanche and Malema at a press conference. He told journalists the murder was a simple criminal act that had no relevance to the World Cup. “I don’t think you must completely misconstrue it in this manner, it is just not correct,” he said. Let’s hope he is right. There seems more chance that he is than the contrary. Negative reporting has abounded about the World Cup with European journalists, particularly in Britain, queuing up to say nothing would be ready on time and the competition would be chaotic. As Jordaan points out, they have already been wrong about many things. The stadiums have been finished well ahead of time and many of them are stunning. Whatever happens, the stakes are high. A successful World Cup will boost the image not just of this country but of Africa as a whole, bringing more investment and more tourists. Failure would have an equally damaging effect.

How will South Africa reward Caster’s triumph???

South Africa ’s  Caster Semenya returned home today following her 800m gold medal-win at the  World Athletics Championships in Berlin .

She was greeted by headlines from the country’s newspapers, expressing collective  national pride for her achievement.  “Welcome home, Caster, our champ. Caster, this nation is proud of you and we stand behind you, from Cape Town to Musina.”, screamed  the Johannesburg-based The Times Newspaper.

Her achievement should give hope to those South Africans in the far flung and unnoticed rural areas who want to be top achievers that they too can be champions.  Caster, who was born in a small village of Ga-Masehlong , has overcome a number of obstacles  in getting to where she is today -  hopefully her triumph will inspire her country to honour her.

There have been calls for government to rename the new South African public transport system, the Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT), after her.  A lot is also expected from corporate South African to offer her incentives and rewards for making her country proud in Berlin .

There  is talk in some quarters that the great honour for Caster should come from President Jacob Zuma, who has promised to fight poverty and improve the lives of all South Africans. They say Zuma should ensure that Caster is removed from poverty. The state should see to it that Caster receives some monetary  reward for her achievement.

Afterall,  it would not be the first time that excellence is rewarded with money. In neighbouring Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe awarded $100,000 to Zimbabwean Kirsty Coventry for winning a gold medal at Beijing Olympics swimming events.

Caster deserves something from this nation,  and as The Times summed it up: “Her achievement is the greatest single sporting achievement by South African women on track, and it might be the greatest ever in all disciplines.”

Zuma’s time to deliver?

Poor South Africans have called upon newly elected president Jacob Zuma to keep his election promises on service delivery. The past week has seen a number of protests flaring up across South Africa against what protesters called poor service delivery.

In one township in the country’s Mpumalanga province residents barricaded the entire township, burning tyres, throwing stones at policemen and calling for the head of the local mayor, whom they described as “good for nothing”. “There is no development. You can see for yourself,” one resident told journalists. He spoke of alleged neglect and apparent self enrichment from local government officials.

Locals also complained about being “overlooked” for jobs in the local municipalities in favour of people from outside.

Demonstrations lasted nearly the whole day on Wednesday 22nd July. Later in the afternoon the local municipal council came to address the crowds who-for-a-while refused to listen to their elected officials. One thing they wanted clarified was whether their brothers and sisters- arrested during the last two days of protests would be released before they could listen to whatever the town council’s meeting had concluded. Ninety-nine residents had been taken into police custody.

Siyathemba Township is but one example of this recent surge in protests against perceived lack of service delivery. The challenges of getting access to water and sanitation facilities, health care, employment, and electricity fifteen years into democratic South Africa are being brought up, albeit via the protests.

Zuma’s balancing act

South African President Jacob Zuma has a tough balancing act to perform as he begins his term in office.

 On the one hand, Zuma is anxious to assure investors that there will be continuity in the economic policies that have secured the country’s status as the regional powerhouse.

On the other, he has to address the increasingly vocal demands of his allies in the labour movement, whose support propelled him first to the leadership of the ruling ANC and then to the country’s top government job after April 22 elections.

But what the unions want – increased social spending to cushion their members against the ravages to the global recession that has now also landed in South Africa – would mean veering away from the prudent fiscal stance that has ironically cushioned the country from the worst of the world crisis.

Investors are also keen to see whether Zuma bows to pressure not to renew the contract of central bank Governor Tito Mboweni, loved by financial markets but vilified by unions that say a pre-occupation with inflation targeting has seen the Reserve Bank maintain a tight monetary policy at the expense of economic growth, impoverishing millions.

Sovereign risk in South Africa

Recent events in South Africa have sent some conflicting signals to investors about sovereign risks. On the one hand there was some regulatory flip-flopping over the Vodacom listing given objections from the union organisation COSATU, which raised questions about the influence of unions in Jacob Zuma’s administration. On the other hand the sovereign issuing some $1.5 billion was highly successful and oversubscribed.

With Zuma recently elected on a platform of change for his domestic audience and continuation of old policies when speaking to investors, there is a raft of new ministers and new ministries and quite a bit of policy uncertainty. No foreign investor will deny South Africa’s need to address serious social problems of inequality, housing, jobs and education through a more developmental state agenda.

However investors I speak to simply want to see that this is not at the expense of the productive sectors of the economy. This agenda will naturally involve the ANC’s allies: COSATU and SACP (communist party).  As such, the process of governing will be a noisy affair for investors. I put the Vodacom incident down to such noise.

However I believe the new Zuma administration will find itself heavily constrained by the need to raise funds for its agenda and so keep investors onside as the government’s borrowing requirement balloons. Add state owned enterprises engaging in very necessary investment, and a current account deficit and you arrive at a funding requirement north of  500 billion rand for the next two years.

This will act as a strong rationalising influence though a backup overdraft in the form of an IMF flexible credit lending facility would be a benefit.  It also should not be forgotten that there is still a strong business influence in the cabinet and the ANC from the likes of Cyril Ramaphosa and Tokyo Sexwale.  Most investors buy the case of policy not shifting sharply to the left, though a lot of questions have been planted in the minds of investors.

Keeping the different factions in his cabinet in line will be key for Zuma’s success, especially with two new hurdles looming: the Bharti/MTN and the Xstrata/Anglo American mergers. Both are sensitive and likely to be jumped on by unions.  The inflation-targeting debate is also being reopened locally — a topic foreign investors love to discuss.

It is now up to Zuma and his team to deliver on prudent macro-policy as well as his developmental state priorities in order to sustain the current goodwill from investors.  It is still early days for his administration. We hope not to be disappointed — for South Africa’s sake as much as anyone elses.

The Cape of storms?

South African opposition leader Helen Zille has not endeared herself to the majority of voters who recently handed the ruling African National Congress a landslide victory in the national polls.

Zille came under fire from her political enemies for her appointment of a predominantly white and almost completely male cabinet in the Western Cape, the province where her DA party took power from the ANC.

She retaliated by attacking President Jacob Zuma, calling him a “self-confessed womaniser with deeply sexist views, who put all his wives at risk by having unprotected sex with an HIV-positive woman”.

That referred to Zuma’s acknowledgement that he had such contact during a trial on rape charges of which he was acquitted. The row has ended any suggestion that after Zuma’s election, there might be a period of better relations between the government and opposition.

ANC Secretary General Gwede Mantashe , said Zille has “elevated herself from being the leader of the official opposition to being the enemy”.

Quite apart from the name-calling, the row also looks as though it could distract attention from the opposition’s own efforts to present itself as an alternative to the ANC.

It is not the first time that South Africa’s opposition has found itself caught in a war of words with the ANC rather than showing what it will do differently.

How will the Zuma team do?

Thousands of South Africans danced, cheered and sang hymns to celebrate President Jacob Zuma’s swearing in. Zuma, they said, as a man of the people, would give them houses and electricity, fight AIDS and crime, and ensure prosperity even as South Africa is on the brink of its first recession in 17 years.

But appointments to key ministries have raised questions over how well the new government will function.

Economic policy is seen intact after largely expected changes at finance-related ministries, but appointments to some other key sectors, including mining, energy and telecommunications left more doubts.

Siphiwe Nyanda, the newly appointed minister of communications, has been a military man, yet outside the African National Congress (ANC) and defence he is something of a mystery. He now takes over communications, a crucial ministry with oversight of Telkom, Africa’s biggest telecoms firm.

Dipuo Peters qualified in social work, but has been chosen to lead the energy ministry and help tackle the country’s power shortages that have led to a five-day shutdown of South Africa’s mining industry and crippled the country’s investor-friendly image.

“It appears this is South Africa’s tradition to appoint a minister who has no technical qualifications whatsoever,” said independent analyst Andrew Kenny.

Barbara Hogan, who has led the health ministry for the past six months, has been moved to oversee the public enterprise department, also in charge of sorting out structural problems at state-owned utility Eskom, which now supplies some 95 percent of the country’s power.