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Darfur – when peace talks cause conflict
It’s well-known that peace talks can cause fighting. I remember before every round of doomed negotiations on Darfur since 2003, either the govenment or the rebels would start a military campaign to gain ground ahead of any potential settlement.
But the violence in the past week in the camps that are home for two million Darfuris displaced by conflict is different.
It would be easy to blame the mediators who convinced more than 400 members of civil society groups to join a peace talks in Qatar which the two main rebel groups are not presently attending.
Some Darfuris, after seven years in the camps, decided the rebel leaders were unable to represent the interests of their people and went to make sure their voices were heard.
It was their return to the rebel-dominated Kalma Camp in South Darfur and the camps around Zalingei in West Darfur that caused fighting that claimed at least eight lives, injured dozens and drove thousands to flee the camps they had sought refuge in years ago.
But to blame only the mediators would ignore the problems they inherited — which pretty much amount to a mission impossible.
Rebel commanders have for years been forming factions by the dozen. They were disillusioned with their leaders, most of whom were young and inexperienced before being propelled into the international limelight as Darfur’s conflict went global.
Washington and Sudan’s elections: When interests collide
The talk of the town for Sudanese is the position of Washington’s envoy Scott Gration after he met the National Elections Commission, the body accused of irregularities and bias towards the ruling National Congress Party. “They have given me a lot of information that gives me confidence that the elections will start on time and that they will be as free and fair as possible,” Gration told reporters.
“This has been a difficult challenge but I believe they (the NEC) have stepped up and met the challenge,” he added.
Gration refused to answer a question on his opinion of the accusations of fraud and bias against the NEC, presiding over the polls to begin next week.
These include the NEC imposing restrictions on political party meetings, pre-recording and censoring political party broadcasts, intervening in the U.N. tender process to allow the government printing press to print the presidential and gubernatorial ballots and a later revelation they allowed the same press to print the voter registration books and slips.
The last contract was paid for with international donor money. Washington is the main bilateral donor to the presidential, legislative and gubernatorial polls, offering some $95 million.
The NEC has not published its finances so no one knows how much the elections will cost. But international sources estimate between $300 to $400 million.
Gration arrived after the shock decision by the main south Sudan party to withdraw its presidential candidate last week, citing massive fraud and sparking a wave of withdrawals which threatened the credibility of the polls.
The Americans seem ready to concede here in order to quarantine the Referendum where it is a Racing Certainty the Boys in Juba will go their own way. A Quid pro Quo?
Aly-Khan Satchu
http://www.rich.co.ke
Are you the Darfur Justice and Equality Movement?
There is a classic scene in Monty Python’s film The Life of Brian where the hero sets off in search of a secret band of insurgents. “Are you the Judean People’s Front,” he asks a group of malcontents. “The Judean People’s Front!” they reply in disgust. “We’re the People’s Front of Judea … The only people we hate more than the Romans are the f***ing Judean People’s Front … And the Judean Popular People’s Front. Splitters!”
Darfur’s more Islamic rebels will not appreciate the Judean comparison. But there has been an undeniable Pythonesque quality to recent efforts to negotiate with the splintered insurgent factions in Sudan’s strife-torn west.
Last month, Khartoum signed a ceasefire with Darfur’s rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Days later, JEM threatened to pull out of further peace talks saying it was furious about Khartoum’s decision to sign a similar deal with the new rebel umbrella group the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM).
JEM lashed out at LJM, saying most of its constituent groups were bogus with no military strength, many of them government stooges. (The LJM’s member parties, who deny JEM’s accusations, include the United Resistance Front – URF, the Sudan Liberation Movement Mainstream – SLM-M and the Democratic Justice and Equality Movement – D-JEM, together with even more obscure bodies.)
LJM leaders lashed out at JEM, saying JEM had no right to monopolise the negotiations taking place in Qatar’s luxury hotels and conference centres.
Meanwhile the whole process was dismissed as a farce by the faction of the insurgent Sudan Liberation Army/Movement still loyal to commander Abdel Wahed Mohamed al-Nur (SLA/M – Abdel Wahed), as well as by Abdel Shafie of the rival SLA/M – Abdel Shafie.
There is a serious point to make behind the Monty Python references and the ever thickening stew of rebel acronyms.
A new way forward is needed in Sudan. The western advocacy groups have raised the discussion to a shrill scream that defies any relief politically or socially. Save Darfur…didn’t. The problems of the country lie in Khartoum’s central government, the same group of people that waged war on the south, Nuba, the East and Darfur. The same group of people that broght the terrorist players into their country for safe haven. Have they changed and have guilty conscience now? No! They take tactical steps to maintain power, confuse those who threaten their power, and fool outsider players. Conquer and divide is in fact the strategy of those in power in Khartoum. The South is weak but still the major political player with any chance to influence a political transformation. The constant scream about Darfur doesn’t help Sudan. Their should be a much broader and substantive engagement with all of Sudan’s issues and change is going to be slow but it needs heavy and constant US/Eurporean/China support.
Gration understood the situation. The Khartoum government realized that arming tribes against rebels was a mistake or at least no longer needed. So to say there is still ongoing genocide is not true. Such statements and reflect lack of understanding of the Darfur issue. Susan Rice’s position, although admirable few years ago, is now unhelpful. Peace will certainly be achieved soon because it is the only option for the government, the rebel groups and the international community. The US has no real stick short of military action.
