International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi hailed the plan as the “first hopeful news” on Syria in a long time and deferred his own plans to resign after nine months of futile mediation.

He called the proposal “only a first step”. But even its sponsors are dampening expectations that a civil war estimated to have killed 80,000 people can be doused soon, and pitfalls they cite in public are only a few of those lying in wait.

“I’m not promising that it’s going to be successful,” U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday. Obstacles include Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, both of which support President Bashar al-Assad, as well as the al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front on the rebel side, he added.

Obama did not mention chronic disunity in the ranks of the Western-backed opposition or its almost complete lack of control over the now mostly Islamist insurgent forces on the ground.

Once “the furies have been unleashed … it’s very hard to put things back together”, he said.

Syria has descended into a ferocious civil war, whose sectarian dimension was illustrated at the weekend by a video showing a Sunni Muslim rebel commander cutting out and biting into the heart of a slain Alawite soldier.

The United States and Russia share interests in Middle Eastern stability and in curbing Islamist militancy, but remain far apart on how to pacify Syria and shape its political future.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who opposes foreign military intervention or arming the rebels, said: “It is extremely important to avoid any actions that could aggravate the situation.

The conflict is complicated and fuelled by regional conflicts, some with sectarian overtones, such as the struggle between Sunni heavyweight Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran.

“MANY DIFFERENCES”

Moscow, which has shielded Assad diplomatically since mostly secular peaceful protests against him erupted in March 2011, has long echoed the Syrian leader’s line that what later turned into an armed revolt is the work of foreign-backed Islamists.

Russia says Assad’s survival in power is not its goal, but insists his removal must not be a precondition for talks.

A Russian official said at the weekend there was broad agreement that the Syrian crisis was dire, “beyond that there are very many differences: who can take part in this format, who is legitimate and who is not legitimate”.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius questioned whether the Geneva talks aimed at creating a transitional government that would take over Assad’s powers would even happen.

“I’m supporting the ‘Geneva 2′ talks, but it’s extremely difficult,” Fabius told RTL radio on Tuesday.

Tentative cooperation between Washington and Moscow might help – Brahimi’s predecessor Kofi Annan quit last year in frustration at the diplomatic paralysis caused by big power divisions – but even acting in concert they might be impotent to staunch a conflict already spilling over to Syria’s neighbours.

It remains to be seen if they can cajole their deeply sceptical Syrian allies into joining the Geneva negotiations, whose earliest timing has now slipped from May to early June.

The main opposition coalition, backed by Western and some Arab states, meets in Istanbul on May 23 to decide its stance. Previously it has demanded Assad’s exit before any talks, but Washington now seems ready to leave his future to negotiations.

A French official, who asked not to be named, said rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the two main Arab sponsors of Assad’s enemies, was hampering the emergence of a credible new opposition leader with a mandate to negotiate.

“It’s vital that they get someone that could be at the table,” the official said. “They know that continuing disunity among the opposition doesn’t work. It’s not just about Assad, the Free Syrian Army and the Islamists – the Syrian people need to be represented politically by the opposition.”

Jordan said on Tuesday that it would host a meeting next week of the rebels’ allies in the “Friends of Syria”.

“GROSS MISCALCULATIONS”

Assad himself, buoyed by military gains against rebel strongholds in recent weeks, seems determined to cling to power.

Information Minister Amran Zoabi said Assad’s leadership role was a decision “only for the Syrian people and the ballot box”. He said Syria wants specifics on the Geneva talks before deciding whether to attend.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said staying away would be “another one of President Assad’s gross miscalculations”, but added: “I don’t believe that that is the case at this moment. The Russians, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already given him the names of people who will negotiate.”

Western powers want to step up pressure on Assad to hasten his fall, but have no appetite for the huge risks and costs of direct military intervention and have stopped short of arming fractured rebel factions, who now seem on the back foot.

Although France and Britain want the European Union to ease its weapons embargo on Syria to allow some arms supplies to rebels, it is hard to imagine how this would swiftly swing the military balance against Assad, whose forces are bolstered by Russian hardware and help from Iran and Hezbollah.

Nor is it clear that arms sent to those rebels Westerners see as moderates could dent the influence of the Islamist militants now spearheading the struggle – and spreading alarm in neighbouring states Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel.

The devastating conflict in Syria, now well into its third year, may have prompted a new international initiative. But the talks would only be a start, as the French official made plain, saying: “Let’s be clear, even if we do have this conference, it doesn’t mean there will be peace in Syria.”

(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle in Stockholm, Oliver Holmes in Beirut, John Irish in Paris, Matt Spetalnick in Washington, Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi hailed the plan as the “first hopeful news” on Syria in a long time and deferred his own plans to resign after nine months of futile mediation.

He called the proposal “only a first step”. But even its sponsors are dampening expectations that a civil war estimated to have killed 80,000 people can be doused soon, and pitfalls they cite in public are only a few of those lying in wait.

“I’m not promising that it’s going to be successful,” U.S. President Barack Obama said on Monday. Obstacles include Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, both of which support President Bashar al-Assad, as well as the al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front on the rebel side, he added.

Obama did not mention chronic disunity in the ranks of the Western-backed opposition or its almost complete lack of control over the now mostly Islamist insurgent forces on the ground.

Once “the furies have been unleashed … it’s very hard to put things back together”, he said.

Syria has descended into a ferocious civil war, whose sectarian dimension was illustrated at the weekend by a video showing a Sunni Muslim rebel commander cutting out and biting into the heart of a slain Alawite soldier.

The United States and Russia share interests in Middle Eastern stability and in curbing Islamist militancy, but remain far apart on how to pacify Syria and shape its political future.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who opposes foreign military intervention or arming the rebels, said: “It is extremely important to avoid any actions that could aggravate the situation.”

The conflict is complicated and fuelled by regional conflicts, some with sectarian overtones, such as the struggle between Sunni heavyweight Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Iran.

“MANY DIFFERENCES”

Moscow, which has shielded Assad diplomatically since mostly secular peaceful protests against him erupted in March 2011, has long echoed the Syrian leader’s line that what later turned into an armed revolt is the work of foreign-backed Islamists.

Russia says Assad’s survival in power is not its goal, but insists his removal must not be a precondition for talks.

A Russian official said at the weekend there was broad agreement that the Syrian crisis was dire, “beyond that there are very many differences: who can take part in this format, who is legitimate and who is not legitimate”.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius questioned whether the Geneva talks aimed at creating a transitional government that would take over Assad’s powers would even happen.

“I’m supporting the ‘Geneva 2′ talks, but it’s extremely difficult,” Fabius told RTL radio on Tuesday.

Tentative cooperation between Washington and Moscow might help – Brahimi’s predecessor Kofi Annan quit last year in frustration at the diplomatic paralysis caused by big power divisions – but even acting in concert they might be impotent to staunch a conflict already spilling over to Syria’s neighbors.

It remains to be seen if they can cajole their deeply skeptical Syrian allies into joining the Geneva negotiations, whose earliest timing has now slipped from May to early June.

The main opposition coalition, backed by Western and some Arab states, meets in Istanbul on May 23 to decide its stance. Previously it has demanded Assad’s exit before any talks, but Washington now seems ready to leave his future to negotiations.

A French official, who asked not to be named, said rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the two main Arab sponsors of Assad’s enemies, was hampering the emergence of a credible new opposition leader with a mandate to negotiate.

“It’s vital that they get someone that could be at the table,” the official said. “They know that continuing disunity among the opposition doesn’t work. It’s not just about Assad, the Free Syrian Army and the Islamists – the Syrian people need to be represented politically by the opposition.”

Jordan said on Tuesday that it would host a meeting next week of the rebels’ allies in the “Friends of Syria”.

“GROSS MISCALCULATIONS”

Assad himself, buoyed by military gains against rebel strongholds in recent weeks, seems determined to cling to power.

Information Minister Amran Zoabi said Assad’s leadership role was a decision “only for the Syrian people and the ballot box”. He said Syria wants specifics on the Geneva talks before deciding whether to attend.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said staying away would be “another one of President Assad’s gross miscalculations”, but added: “I don’t believe that that is the case at this moment. The Russians, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already given him the names of people who will negotiate.”

Western powers want to step up pressure on Assad to hasten his fall, but have no appetite for the huge risks and costs of direct military intervention and have stopped short of arming fractured rebel factions, who now seem on the back foot.

Although France and Britain want the European Union to ease its weapons embargo on Syria to allow some arms supplies to rebels, it is hard to imagine how this would swiftly swing the military balance against Assad, whose forces are bolstered by Russian hardware and help from Iran and Hezbollah.

Nor is it clear that arms sent to those rebels Westerners see as moderates could dent the influence of the Islamist militants now spearheading the struggle – and spreading alarm in neighboring states Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel.

The devastating conflict in Syria, now well into its third year, may have prompted a new international initiative. But the talks would only be a start, as the French official made plain, saying: “Let’s be clear, even if we do have this conference, it doesn’t mean there will be peace in Syria.”

(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle in Stockholm, Oliver Holmes in Beirut, John Irish in Paris, Matt Spetalnick in Washington, Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

The flame of revolt that first flared in Tunisia, previously one of the Arab world’s quietest corners, consumed autocrats there, in neighboring Egypt and, more violently, in Libya.

Contained in Bahrain, it flickered on in Yemen where in time a veteran leader was pushed aside. In Syria, it is still being fiercely fought over. All Arab countries have felt the heat.

Gritty political transitions are under way in nations where “revolution” has triumphed, ushering in contests over power, identity and religion, continued economic and social malaise, new opportunities for Islamist radicals, lawlessness and a surge in sexual violence against women that has gained publicity.

Among a host of unintended consequences is an outflow of weapons and fighters from Libya after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi that has helped to destabilize neighboring Mali.

Another is rising tension between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims across a region already buffeted by rivalry between Shi’ite Iran and U.S.-aligned Sunni powers led by Saudi Arabia.

In Bahrain, the Saudis helped to crush protests led by the Shi’ite majority, and in Syria, mainly Sunni rebels are battling Iran’s principal Arab ally, President Bashar al-Assad, whose rule is built around his Shi’ite-rooted Alawite minority.

Many Arabs are proud of their new freedom to speak out and to take to the streets against real and perceived wrongs, but it has proved trickier than many expected to create prosperity, fill power vacuums left by entrenched rulers and convert police states into stable democracies governed by the rule of law.

“WORK AND DIGNITY”

Unemployment, poverty and rising prices, which helped to fuel the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt, remain grievances in economies hit by unrest that has deterred tourists and foreign investors.

“Our basic demand was work and dignity, but now under the Islamists we don’t have either,” said Aymen Ben Slimane, an unemployed young man in the Tunisian capital. “We have no confidence in them to achieve the goals of our revolution.”

Last week’s assassination of opposition politician Chokri Belaid plunged Tunisia into its worst crisis since the uprising and raised fears of violence in a country where an Islamist-led government faces strong liberal and secular opposition.

Zouhour Layouni, a 22-year-old student in a headscarf, said Tunisia had won freedom of expression and could accommodate differences between Islamists like her and their opponents.

“The assassination of Belaid is an exception,” she said. “Now we ask secular people to give us time and they will see the results. Our hope is that Tunisia will be united.”

Tunisia’s troubles and those of other Arab nations in early stages of transition should come as no surprise.

“These revolutions require a long-term perspective. It would have been unrealistic to think that in two years these countries would have transformed themselves into perfectly functioning democracies,” said Eric Goldstein of Human Rights Watch.

“It’s important not to underestimate how much 25 years of dictatorship and the politics of fear and intimidation have distorted the political landscape,” he said, adding that Tunisian political parties lacked experience in negotiating their differences peacefully. “They are learning as they go.”

SOARING EXPECTATIONS

Well-organized Islamist groups such as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and Tunisia’s Ennahda party have won elections after revolts they did not start, but after years of preaching that “Islam is the solution” both have collided with the complexity of managing modern economies and governing unruly societies.

“People are angry because they feel the revolution did not change their lives,” Ennahda’s leader Rached Ghannouchi told Reuters this week, acknowledging how hard it is to meet popular expectations raised by the overthrow of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

Relatively moderate Islamist parties face pressure from ultra-orthodox Salafis, whose drive to write stricter codes into new constitutions and laws dismays their liberal opponents.

Some Salafis, but by no means all, are ready to pursue their goals through violence. The attacks on U.S. diplomatic missions in Tunis, Cairo and Benghazi in September, following an anti-Islam video that surfaced in America, illustrated the danger.

A smattering of Arab voices reflecting on the ferment of the last two years provides individual insights, even if they cannot encompass the complexity of changes in the Middle East that will take years, if not decades, to shake down.

In Egypt, liberal activist Abdelrahman Mansour, who helped organize protests on January 25, 2011 that snowballed into an uprising against Hosni Mubarak, said Islamists had failed to bring Mubarak-era officials to account or to establish a real democratic transition after an interim period of military rule.

“Instead, Islamists staged a series of power grabs that marginalized other political forces,” he said, arguing that the military and their Islamist successors had sidelined youth groups and others who had prepared plans for reform of the interior ministry, judiciary and other state institutions.

“Their aim was to contain the revolution and its youth by convincing the average Egyptian citizen that the youth were the ones destroying the revolution, not the ones who ignited it.”

Samir Wisamee, an Islamist activist, said Mubarak’s removal and the holding of free and fair elections were major gains, but also lamented “the lack of accountability within the Interior Ministry and the cycle of violence that plagues the country”.

SYRIA’S AGONY

While hundreds of people have died in unrest in post-Mubarak Egypt, the violence is dwarfed by that in Syria, where the United Nations says nearly 70,000 have now been killed since a revolt against Assad began with peaceful protests in March 2011.

Syrian opposition campaigner Fawaz Tello, now in exile, said he was saddened by the human cost of freedom extracted by Assad’s “savage” ruling system and by international inaction.

But his biggest disappointment was a Syrian opposition that he said lacked leadership, political acumen and administrative skill. “It has not managed to connect effectively with the spirit of the revolution and it is responsible for corrupting the revolt by trying to buy loyalties of the rebels,” he said.

“But I’m proud that a defenseless people who have challenged a totalitarian system that has been strengthening itself for the last half a century are on their way to victory,” Tello said.

After so much carnage, the outcome of Syria’s conflict is far from clear. Nor can anyone be sure what will emerge in other countries where Arabs rose up for freedom and dignity.

Nathan Brown, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the uprisings expressed “disgust in the prevailing political order and a hope that if societies could just get their politics right they would solve their pressing problems”.

Structures that kept self-serving Arab leaders in power had been toppled, “but there was no systematic thought about what should positively replace these systems, and building good ones has been far harder than anticipated”, he said.

“The biggest obstacle to such a process in Egypt and Tunisia – the two most hopeful countries two years ago – has not been the actions or attitudes of any particular actor but the deep polarization among various camps and the inability to bridge differences or even find a common language.”

Tunisia was thrown into political turmoil last week by the assassination of secular opposition politician Chokri Belaid.

After the killing, Jebali proposed forming a cabinet of apolitical technocrats to take Tunisia to elections, but did not consult his own Ennahda party or its secular coalition partners.

Ghannouchi said Ennahda had rejected Jebali’s idea and would make a counter-proposal. “A project for a political government will be presented today to the prime minister to form a team of politicians and technocrats,” he told Reuters in an interview.

“I expect that agreement will be reached and that Jebali will remain the prime minister of a coalition government,” he said, adding that only a party-based cabinet could win support in the National Constituent Assembly and in the street.

Violent protests, in which one policeman was killed, swept Tunisia after Belaid’s assassination, with crowds attacking Ennahda offices in Tunis and elsewhere. Tens of thousands of people turned out for the slain leader’s funeral on Friday.

Ghannouchi said Ennahda might even withdraw from the government if Jebali insisted on forming a technocrat cabinet, although it was not clear how this could work in practice.

He said it was essential that Islamists and secular parties shared power now and in the future. “Any stable rule in Tunisia needs a moderate Islamist-secular coalition,” he said.

He dismissed critics who say Ennahda is trying to erode freedom of expression and women’s rights in the constitution that the National Constituent Assembly is supposed to draw up.

“PEOPLE ARE ANGRY”

The Islamist leader suggested Ennahda might compromise over control of portfolios such as defence, foreign affairs, justice and interior. “We are ready to discuss all ministries, including sovereign ones, in a new coalition government,” he said.

Ghannouchi, who returned from exile to a hero’s welcome in Tunisia days after a popular uprising overthrew strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, said his main disappointment since then was the lack of social and economic progress.

“People are angry because they feel the revolution did not change their lives,” he said.

Earlier in the day, Ettakatol, a leftist party in the ruling coalition threw its weight behind Jebali’s proposal for a neutral cabinet of technocrats and urged Ennahda to support it.

The other non-Islamist coalition partner, the Congress for the Republic led by interim President Moncef Marzouki, on Monday reversed its decision to quit the government while talks go on.

Mustapha Ben Jaafar, Ettakatol’s secretary-general and head of the National Constituent Assembly, called for national unity, saying Tunisia’s transition to democracy was at stake.

“If this Tunisian experiment fails, no Arab experiment will succeed,” he told a news conference.

Tunisia was the cradle of revolts that swept the Arab world two years ago, but until now has experienced little of the violence witnessed in North African neighbours such as Egypt and Libya during their troubled transitions from autocratic rule.

Ghannouchi said “counter-revolutionaries” were still entrenched in the media, bureaucracy and elsewhere, but rejected the idea that Tunisia’s revolution was under threat.

“It goes through stages, just as a plane goes through turbulence, but it completes its journey, insh’allah.”

(Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Alison Williams)

Belaid’s killing on Wednesday – Tunisia’s first such
political assassination in decades – has thrown the government
and the country into turmoil, widening rifts between the
dominant Islamist Ennahda party and its secular-minded foes.

“We have been saying for a week that if the foreign and
justice ministers were not changed, we would withdraw from the
government,” Samir Ben Amor, an official of Marzouki’s Congress
for the Republic Party (CPR), told Reuters.

The CPR has criticised the performance of the two ministers,
one of whom, Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem, is the
son-in-law of Ennahda party leader Rachid Ghannouchi.

Ben Amor said the CPR’s withdrawal was unconnected to Prime
Minister Hamadi Jebali’s decision, announced after Belaid was
killed, to form a non-partisan government of technocrats to run
the country until elections can be held later in the year.

Senior politicians in Ennahda, as well as in its two
non-Islamist coalition partners, had criticised Jebali’s
proposal, saying he had failed to consult them first.

Jebali said on Saturday he would unveil his new cabinet this
week, but would resign if political parties did not support it.

A senior Ennahda official, who asked not to be named, said
the National Constituent Assembly would have the final say, but
added: “We see that it will be possible to form a government of
technocrats that includes political parties.”

Ben Amor said Marzouki’s CPR would formally submit the
resignation of its three ministers to Jebali on Monday.

Political analyst Youssef Ouslati said the party was “trying
to jump out of a sinking ship”, but that its decision had no
great weight because Jebali was now the central player.

He said that if political uncertainty continued, “the street
will be the crucial element”.

DIVISIONS ON STREETS

Belaid’s funeral drew tens of thousands of mourners in Tunis
and other cities on Friday in what turned into mass political
protests against Ennahda and the government it dominates.

About 6,000 Ennahda supporters took to the streets of the
capital on Saturday in a peaceful show of strength.

The CPR’s departure is the first major shake-up in the
government set up in December 2011 after an election for a
National Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution.

The CPR came a distant second in the election, winning 29 of
the assembly’s 217 seats to Ennahda’s 89, but Marzouki was
elected interim president by the assembly in a show of unity and
his party entered a coalition government led by Ennahda.

Marzouki had opposed former President Zine al-Abidine Ben
Ali from exile until a popular uprising swept the long serving
Tunisian leader from power in January 2011.

Since then Islamists and their opponents have tussled over
the role of Islam in politics, society and the constitution,
while economic grievances that helped drive the revolt against
Ben Ali have gone largely unaddressed.

Belaid’s killing, for which no one has claimed
responsibility, shocked the nation of nearly 11 million.

The politician’s widow Basma said on Saturday she was asking
the government to protect her family with official protection.

Some members of Belaid’s family have accused Ennahda of
being behind the shooting, something the party denies.

Ghannouchi, Ennahda’s leader, has threatened legal action
against politicians or journalists pointing the finger at him,
saying they were “exploiting the blood of the deceased for
narrow political ends at the expense of the truth”.

About 6,000 supporters of the ruling Ennahda movement rallied to back their leader Rachid al-Ghannouchi, who was the target of angry slogans raised by mourners at Friday’s mass funeral of Chokri Belaid, a rights lawyer and opposition leader.

“The people want Ennahda again,” the Islamists chanted, waving Tunisian and party flags as they marched towards the Interior Ministry on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in the city centre.

The demonstration was dwarfed by the tens of thousands who had turned out in Tunis and other cities to honor Belaid and to protest against the Islamist-led government the day before, shouting slogans that included “We want a new revolution”.

Belaid’s killing by an unidentified gunman on Wednesday, Tunisia’s first such political assassination in decades, has shaken a nation still seeking stability after the overthrow of veteran strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011.

The family of the slain politician has accused Ennahda of responsibility for his killing. The party denies any hand in it.

“We are here to support legitimacy, but if you prefer the power of the street, look at the streets today, we have this power,” Lotfi Zitoun, an Ennahda leader, said in a speech to the Islamist demonstrators in Tunis.

Tunisia’s political transition has been more peaceful than those in other Arab nations such as Egypt, Libya and Syria, but tensions are running high between Islamists elected to power and liberals who fear the loss of hard-won liberties.

FREEDOMS THREATENED

“We have gained things – the freedom of expression, the freedom to meet, to form organizations, parties, to work in the open,” said Radhi Nasraoui, a veteran human rights campaigner.

“The problem is that these freedoms are still threatened, and there are attempts (by Islamists) to touch the gains of women,” she told Reuters.

After Belaid’s death, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali promised to form a non-partisan, technocratic cabinet to run the country until an election could take place, despite complaints from within his own Ennahda party and its two junior non-Islamist coalition partners that he had failed to consult them.

Jebali told France 24 television on Saturday that he would resign if political parties refused to support his proposal, which he said was intended to “save the country from chaos”.

The state news agency TAP said the prime minister would unveil his new government next week.

Secular groups have accused the Islamist-led government of a lax response to attacks by ultra-orthodox Salafi Islamists on cinemas, theatres, bars and individuals in recent months.

Prolonged political uncertainty and street unrest could damage an economy that relies on tourism. Unemployment and other economic grievances fuelled the revolt against Ben Ali in 2011.

Tunisia’s stock exchange has fallen 3.32 percent since Belaid’s assassination.

France, the former colonial power, ordered its schools in Tunis to stay closed on Friday and Saturday, warning its nationals to stay clear of potential flashpoints in the capital.

Some of the Islamist demonstrators shouted “France, out”, in response to remarks by French Interior Minister Manuel Valls which were rejected by Jebali, the prime minister, on Friday.

“We must support all those who fight to maintain values and remain aware of the dangers of despotism, of Islamism that threatened those values today through obscurantism,” Valls had said on Europe 1 radio on Thursday in comments on Tunisia.

“There is an Islamic fascism which is on the rise in many places.”

Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem described Valls’s remarks as “worrying and unfriendly”.

About 6,000 partisans of the ruling Ennahda movement rallied in support of their leader, Rachid al-Ghannouchi, who was the target of angry slogans raised by mourners at Friday’s mass funeral of Chokri Belaid, a rights lawyer and opposition leader.

“The people want Ennahda again,” the Islamists chanted, waving Tunisian and party flags as they marched towards the Interior Ministry on Habib Bourguiba Avenue in the city centre.

The demonstration was dwarfed by the tens of thousands who had turned out in Tunis and other cities to honor Belaid and to protest against the Islamist-led government the day before, shouting slogans that included “We want a new revolution”.

Belaid’s killing by an unidentified gunman on Wednesday, Tunisia’s first such political assassination in decades, has shaken a nation still seeking stability after the overthrow of veteran strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011.

The family of the slain leader has accused Ennahda of responsibility for his killing. The party denies any hand in it.

Tunisia’s political transition has been more peaceful than those in other Arab nations such as Egypt, Libya and Syria, but tensions are running high between Islamists elected to power and liberals who fear the loss of hard-won freedoms.

After Belaid’s death, Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali promised to form a non-partisan, technocratic cabinet to run the country until an election could take place, despite complaints from within his own Ennahda party and its two junior non-Islamist coalition partners that he had failed to consult them.

Secular groups have accused the Islamist-led government of a lax response to attacks by ultra-orthodox Salafi Islamists on cinemas, theatres, bars and individuals in recent months.

Prolonged political uncertainty and street unrest could damage an economy that relies on tourism. Unemployment and other economic grievances fuelled the revolt against Ben Ali in 2011.

France, the former colonial power, has ordered its schools in Tunis to stay closed on Friday and Saturday, warning its nationals to stay clear of potential flashpoints in the capital.

Some of the Islamist demonstrators shouted “France, out”, in response to remarks by French Interior Minister Manuel Valls which were rejected by Jebali, the prime minister, on Friday.

“We must support all those who fight to maintain values and remain aware of the dangers of despotism, of Islamism that threatened those values today through obscurantism,” Valls had said on Europe 1 radio on Thursday in comments on Tunisia.

“There is an Islamic fascism which is on the rise in many places.”

Tunisian Foreign Minister Rafik Abdessalem described Valls’s remarks as “worrying and unfriendly”.

Crowds surged around an open army truck carrying Belaid’s
coffin, draped in a red and white Tunisian flag, from a cultural
centre in the slain leader’s home district of Jebel al-Jaloud.
Demonstrators with flags and banners packed surrounding streets.

“Belaid, rest in peace, we will continue the struggle,” they
chanted, holding portraits of Belaid, who was shot dead outside
his home on Wednesday by a gunman who escaped on the back of a
motorcycle.

Some shouted slogans against Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of
the ruling Islamist Ennahda party. “Ghannouchi, assassin,
criminal,” they chanted. “Tunisia is free, terrorism out.”

Tunisia, cradle of the Arab uprisings, is riven by tensions
between dominant Islamists and their secular opponents, and by
frustration at the lack of social and economic progress since
President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in January 2011.

In Sidi Bouzid, the southern town where the revolt began,
about 10,000 protesters gathered to mourn Belaid and shout
slogans against Ennahda and the government, witnesses said.

Hundreds of riot police deployed in Habib Bourguiba Avenue,
a flashpoint for protests in the Tunisian capital. Banks,
factories and some shops were closed in response to a strike
called by unions in protest at Belaid’s killing, but buses were
running normally.

Tunis Air suspended all its flights because of the strikes,
a spokesman for the national airline said, adding that flights
operated by other airlines were not affected.

However, airport sources in Cairo said Egypt’s national
airline EgyptAir had cancelled two flights to Tunisia after
staff at Tunis airport joined the general strike.

After Belaid’s assassination, Prime Minister Hamdi Jebali,
an Islamist, said he would dissolve the government and form a
non-partisan cabinet of technocrats to rule until elections
could be held.

But his own Ennahda party and its secular coalition partners
complained they had not been consulted, casting doubt over the
status of the government and compounding political uncertainty.

No one has claimed responsibility for the killing of Belaid,
a lawyer and secular opposition figure.

ENNAHDA OFFICES TARGETED

His family have blamed Ennahda but the party has denied any
hand in the shooting. Crowds have attacked several Ennahda party
offices in Tunis and other cities in the past two days.

While Belaid had only a modest political following, his
criticism of Ennahda policies spoke for many Tunisians who fear
religious radicals are bent on snuffing out freedoms won in the
first of the revolts that rippled through the Arab world.

“Criminals assassinated Chokri, but will not assassinate his
struggle,” his widow Besma Khlifi said on Thursday. “My sadness
ended when I saw thousands flocking to the streets … At that
moment I knew that the country is fine and men and women in my
country are defending democracy, freedom and life.”

All three ruling parties and sections of the opposition
rebuffed Jebali’s plan to create a small, technocrat government
to take over day-to-day matters until elections could be held,
demanding they be consulted before any such move.

“In the likely event that there is no agreement, civil
unrest will increase, reaching a level that cannot be contained
by the police,” said Firas Abi Ali of the London-based Exclusive
Analysis think-tank.

“If unrest continued for more than two weeks, the army would
probably reluctantly step in and back a technocrat government,
as well as fresh elections for a new Constituent Assembly.”

The economic effect of political uncertainty and street
unrest could be serious in a country which has yet to draft a
new constitution and which relies heavily on the tourist trade.

Mohamed Ali Toumi, president of the Tunisian Federation of
Travel Agencies, described the week’s events as a catastrophe
that would have a negative impact on tourism, but he told the
national news agency TAP no cancellations had been reported yet.

France, which had already announced the closure of its
schools in Tunis on Friday and Saturday, urged its nationals to
stay clear of potential flashpoints in the capital.

“Unless unavoidable, it is best to stay away from the city
centre today, and steer clear of demonstrations and major road
crossings or sensitive buildings,” said Helene Conway-Mouret,
minister in charge of French people living abroad.

The Austrian foreign ministry issued a similar warning.

The cost of insuring Tunisian government bonds against
default rose to its highest level in more than four years on
Thursday and ratings agency Fitch said it could further
downgrade Tunisia if political instability continues or worsens.

(Additional reporting by Alexander Dziadosz in Cairo, Brian
Love in Paris and Michael Shields in Vienna; Editing by Andrew
Heavens)

In chilly, showery weather, about 3,000 mourners waited outside the city’s Cultural Centre, where Belaid’s body lay before the funeral. “Belaid, rest in peace, we will continue the struggle,” they chanted, holding portraits of the slain leader.

Some shouted slogans against Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of the ruling Islamist Ennahda party. “Ghannouchi, assassin, criminal,” they chanted. “Tunisia is free, terrorism out.”

Tunisia, cradle of the Arab uprisings, is riven by tensions between dominant Islamists and their secular opponents, and by frustration at the lack of social and economic progress since President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in January 2011.

Hundreds of anti-riot police deployed in Habib Bourguiba Avenue, a flashpoint for anti-government protests in the Tunisian capital. Banks, factories and some shops were closed in response to a strike called by unions in protest at Wednesday’s killing of Belaid, but buses were running normally.

After Belaid’s assassination, Prime Minister Hamdi Jebali, an Islamist, said he would dissolve the government and form a non-partisan cabinet of technocrats to rule until elections could be held.

But his own Ennahda party and its secular coalition partners complained they had not been consulted, casting doubt over the status of the government and compounding political uncertainty.

No one has claimed responsibility for the killing of Belaid, a lawyer and secular opposition figure, shot dead outside his home by a gunman who fled on the back of a motorcycle.

ENNAHDA OFFICES TARGETED

His family have blamed Ennahda but the party has denied any hand in the shooting. Crowds have attacked several Ennahda party offices in Tunis and other cities in the past two days.

While Belaid had only a modest political following, his criticism of Ennahda policies spoke for many Tunisians who fear religious radicals are bent on snuffing out freedoms won in the first of the revolts that rippled through the Arab world.

“Criminals assassinated Chokri, but will not assassinate his struggle,” his widow Besma said on Thursday. “My sadness ended when I saw thousands flocking to the streets…At that moment I knew that the country is fine and men and women in my country are defending democracy, freedom and life.”

All three ruling parties and sections of the opposition rebuffed Jebali’s plan to create a small, technocrat government to take over day-to-day matters until elections could be held, demanding they be consulted before any such move.

“In the likely event that there is no agreement, civil unrest will increase, reaching a level that cannot be contained by the police,” said Firas Abi Ali of the London-based Exclusive Analysis think-tank.

“If unrest continued for more than two weeks, the army would probably reluctantly step in and back a technocrat government, as well as fresh elections for a new Constituent Assembly.”

The economic effect of political uncertainty and street unrest could be serious in a country which has yet to draft a new constitution and which relies heavily on the tourist trade.

Mohamed Ali Toumi, president of the Tunisian Federation of Travel Agencies, described the week’s events as a catastrophe that would have a negative impact on tourism, but he told the national news agency TAP no cancellations had been reported yet.

The cost of insuring Tunisian government bonds against default rose to its highest level in more than four years on Thursday and ratings agency Fitch said it could further downgrade Tunisia if political instability continues or worsens.

(Editing by Jon Boyle)

A flood of Syrian refugees and disrupted trade due to the 22-month-old revolt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad burden a frail economy that has already had to turn to the IMF.

Any emergence of Islamist rule in a post-Assad Syria could embolden Islamists who are the main opposition group in Jordan.

And rising Islamist militancy among Syrian insurgents threatens the security of the Western-backed kingdom next door.

Jordan also frets that protracted sectarian turmoil might shatter Syria’s territorial integrity, with incalculable results for its neighbors in an already volatile Middle East.

“The challenge we have is that the longer this conflict goes on, the more the country will implode,” King Abdullah said last week, describing any fragmentation of Syria as “catastrophic and something we would be reeling from for decades to come”.

The king has taken a mostly cautious line on Syria, calling for Assad to go, but advocating a “political solution” and not arming the Syrian leader’s foes – even at the risk of irritating more gung-ho Gulf Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Since Israel’s creation in 1948, Jordan has absorbed waves of Palestinian refugees, as well as fugitives from the 1975-90 civil war in Lebanon and from Iraq, before and after a U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. Time and again it has benefited from the talents and money the newcomers brought.

Now it hosts more than 330,000 mostly impoverished Syrians, or nearly five percent of its own population of seven million, some housed in camps but most dispersed in its towns and cities.

“We have reached the end of the line; we have exhausted our resources,” the king said this week at a meeting in Kuwait of international donors who pledged more than $1.5 billion to aid Syrians stricken by the civil war destroying their country.

ECONOMIC BURDEN

The refugees impose an additional strain on arid Jordan’s scant water supplies, consume state-subsidized electricity and further stretch health, education and other services.

The kingdom, which agreed a $2-billion standby loan from the International Monetary Fund last year, is struggling to cut its budget deficit by about a third to 5.4 percent of gross domestic product from 7.9 percent in 2012, Finance Ministry sources say.

Officials estimate that accommodating Syrian refugees cost the treasury $200 million in 2012, or about 8 percent of a budget deficit swelled by high social spending and soaring fuel import costs due to disruptions in gas supplies from Egypt.

So far the government has not closed its 370-km (230-mile) border with Syria to hold back the growing refugee influx – Information Minister Samih al-Maaytah told Reuters on Wednesday that 60,000 had arrived in the previous 10 days alone.

With so many refugees living outside the main Zaatari border camp, tensions are rising in host communities in northern Jordan, once an unquestioningly loyal tribal region where grievances about corruption and dwindling state benefits have already generated unrest against the Hashemite monarchy.

The king, despite limited attempts at political reform, also faces a challenge from the Muslim Brotherhood, whose party boycotted this month’s parliamentary election over what it saw as an unfair electoral law favoring tribal, rural regions over the cities with their mostly Palestinian-origin populations.

Jordan has escaped a full-scale uprising since the Arab awakening began two years ago. With Syria burning on its doorstep, it cannot feel it is immune from contagion, although Jordanians may well prefer the stability of an imperfect system to the violence convulsing their turbulent neighbors.

The Muslim Brotherhood, sometimes a willing partner with Jordan’s rulers in the past, has watched as its counterparts gain power through the ballot box in Egypt and elsewhere.

Success for the Brotherhood in Syria could put more pressure on Jordan’s frayed balance between tribesmen from clans based on the East Bank of the river Jordan, who have broadly backed the king in return for state patronage and jobs in the army and other forces, and Palestinians from the West Bank and beyond who have dominated private enterprise and acquiesced politically.

SALAFI RADICALS

Even more worrying for Jordan is the increasing influence of Islamist militants in the mostly Sunni Muslim revolt against Assad and a state system dominated by his minority Alawite sect.

“Al Qaeda is established in Syria, they have been there for about a year,” Abdullah warned at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week. “They are getting certain supplies of weapons, materiel and financing.”

He said Jordan might have to reconsider its military role in Afghanistan, where it joined the U.S.-led campaign that began after al Qaeda’s attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001.

“The new Taliban that we’re going to have to deal with is actually going to be in Syria,” he said, adding it might take two years to “clean up the bad elements” in a post-Assad era.

Ultra-orthodox Salafi Islamists, some of whom favour armed struggle, represent a small but potentially dangerous current closely monitored by Jordan’s vigilant intelligence services.

Mohammed Shalabi, better known as Abu Sayyaf, is a Jordanian Salafi jihadi leader who encourages militants to go and fight in Syria for the Nusra Front, an al Qaeda-approved Islamist group that the United States classifies as a terrorist organization.

He told Reuters this week Jordan was trying to halt the flow of militants to Syria because it feared they would one day return home and pursue their jihad to enforce “true Islam”.

Purist Salafis, who try to emulate the Prophet Mohammad’s early companions, dream of recreating a pan-Islamic caliphate cutting across national frontiers and replacing existing rulers.

“As for Syria and Jordan, these borders don’t bind us. We don’t recognize these Sykes-Picot borders,” Abu Sayyaf said, referring to the lines drawn by colonial powers Britain and France to carve up the Ottoman Empire after World War One.

Jordan has already suffered “blowback” from the conflict in post-Saddam Iraq when suicide bombings by a Jordanian-led al Qaeda affiliate killed nearly 60 people in Amman in 2005.

And, as officials like to point out, Damascus is only a couple of hours’ drive from Amman, whereas vast tracts of desert stretch between the Jordanian capital and Baghdad.

Nevertheless, for all the dangers posed by Syria, Jordan has survived many regional crises in the past, trading on its utility as a buffer between Israel and its Arab neighbors.

“Syria is a worry, but I don’t think it will affect the stability of Jordan,” said Ali Shukri, a retired Jordanian general and an adviser to Abdullah’s late father King Hussein.

“We have always managed to keep the country united and maneuver our way away from a possible overspill into Jordan.”

(Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)