Comments on: A German exit from the euro could be relatively easy http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/ Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:42:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: Praetor1 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-269 Sun, 29 Jul 2012 13:00:31 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-269 Generally, a good analysis and summary of the Euro situation. Some posted response have not acknowledged some important fundamentals that Anatole highlighted, with knee-jerk emotional response, and nonsensical reaction emphasizing Germany’s “moral obligation” regarding the European Project?! Sentiment balanced by reality will ultimately prevail. Good, prudent and compliant lending practice require that the lender accepts co-liability when determining risk, and this takes into account a borrowers ability to repay a debt. My point is…we all know that Greece cannot service their liability and therefore legally – no country, bank or fund can expose their investors (e.g. German born and unborn citizens) – without committing a fraudulent domestic act. Smaller EU countries should never have received the extent of money they indeed have todate. Interestingly, the union was always driven more so – “by sentiment” – i.e. cold war related political object – than practicalities, and no wonder the result. Perhaps, considering that the weaker nations are possibly “victims” of this historical grandiose EU objective, this adds credence whereby poorer EU debtor nations might be entitled to exonorate themselves – morally that is 😉 of debt liability, based on the fact that they were seduced / solicited to procure these unsound loans. Therefore, no right-minded German politician can assume guarantor status for another’s debt where there is little chance of recovery and my view is that Germany’s role a the bailout agent will backfire when Greece, Spain and others invoke images of past transgressions. Germany must avoid being seen as a “dictatorial” nation once again. Best Germany cuts it’s losses and acknowledges that the EU dream of a single currency has already collapsed.

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By: Euroredux http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-244 Thu, 26 Jul 2012 17:23:05 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-244 Don’t base assumptions on prejudice, evaluate data:
– germans cook their books like anyone else;
– disguise unemployment figures (as already shown by reuters journalists);
– have 4 lander in bailout;
– have the biggest bank bailout;
– old the biggest public debt (absolute value).

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By: Euroredux http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-243 Thu, 26 Jul 2012 16:59:54 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-243 France and Italy would benefit because:
– They will provide equipment and agricultural goods to the rest of eurozone;
– They exports will increase, with a lower euro, occupying the markets of former german products;
– The banks would improve they profit with an increasing economic growth (german bank would suffer an hair cut equivalent to D.Mark exchange rate, since they old a lot of eurozone debt);
– Oil will follow devaluation of euro, which it is better to USA also, like the declining of german exports to USA;
– Public debt would be payable for these countries and manageable for the rest.

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By: Euroredux http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-241 Thu, 26 Jul 2012 16:50:55 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-241 If Germany leaves the Euro:
– D.Mark exchange rate would increase to upper 30% against Euro;
– Imports would be cheaper for germans and they will notice a life style improvement and inflation near zero;
– However they exports will be much expensive and they car, chemical and heavy machinery industry will lose rapidly they markets in the former eurozone and emergent countries;
– Germany economy will colapse in less than a year (as already stated by their CEOs to Frau Merkel);
– Unemployment will rise to 20%;
– Some states (lander) will try to be integrated in eurozone again;
– Demonstrations will surface in major cities.
– The 4 “lander” already bankrupt will stop paying salaries and pensions;

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By: Kaletsky http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-240 Thu, 26 Jul 2012 15:27:34 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-240 The euro-zone without Germany, far from being “economic road-kill”, would be more solvent than the US, Britain or Japan. This is demonstrated by the fiscal and current account numbers I quoted in the article. You can, of course, ignore the numbers and put faith instead in racial stereotypes that pit corrupt Greeks. lazy Italians and stupid Spaniards against hard-working clever Germans. This seems to be the approach to economics favoured by many politicians in Germany, Finland and the Netherlands. It is precisely this mode of analysis that could encourage Mediterranean countries to tell the Germans they can get lost and instead seek an alliance with Russia.

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By: mbengle http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-239 Thu, 26 Jul 2012 03:11:17 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-239 Only one small problem with this theory – Germany leaves the Euro and what’s left? One big pile of economic road kill.

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By: harb123 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-223 Sun, 22 Jul 2012 17:40:27 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-223 franz josef early eu to be resurrected w/o bonehead wilson implementation of nationalities. Klein germany under bismarck before crazy wilhelm II is resurrected. Now if some of bismarcks realpolitik comes back, maybe it will all work (no german colinies this time). Will sitzburgen and transylvania and bukovina etc not be a problem this time around?? lots of luck.

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By: emu http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-212 Wed, 18 Jul 2012 16:48:10 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-212 Forget it.
Here’s what would happen:
– Germany leaves the euro.
– 10s later it would dawn on France
* that their plan to tie down Germany with a bunch of weaker countries has failed
* that now /they/ are the ones that are supposed to pay the bills for the rest.
– France leaves the Euro.
– Italy figures that it just can’t fill the role played by Germany and France and leaves too.
At that point, a “common” currency” makes no longe sense and it gets abandoned.

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By: tedeee http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-209 Mon, 16 Jul 2012 15:01:39 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-209 Germany cannot support the weak countries much longer, The Netherlands, Austria, Finland are getting along alright for now but are not able to kick in to support the mismanagers. The Germans need the weak nations for export rasons and they have tried to rason with Grease and others but they chose to riot and burn. Too late now to say this, THEY SHOULD HAVE DOEN WHAT ENGLAND DID, stay with the POUND>

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By: Boatguy http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2012/06/27/a-german-exit-from-the-euro-could-be-relatively-easy/#comment-208 Mon, 16 Jul 2012 01:26:50 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=11#comment-208 So, the answer is to threaten the leading voice of reason? Germany is the only major player admitting that Keynes was mistaken… that spending for prosperity is akin to having sex for virginity. They are the only voice saying that the emperors are wearing no clothes. Yes, the standard answer is that Germany is the paymaster. But, there is a reason for that. Germany is the paymaster. Over and over again, the other members of the eurozone have tried to talk Germany into placing itself into the same sinking vessel in which they all reside. But, Merkel refuses, to her credit (and the credit of Germany… pun intended). If the time comes that Germany reverses it’s position, I can personally guarantee three things: 1. The markets will absolutely rejoice for a day or two. 2. They will quickly return to chaos, as the inevitable decline begins. 3. Merkel will have destroyed the eurozone. But, on the bright side, they’ll all be in the same boat, patting each other on the back and saying that no one could’ve foreseen the magnitude of the problem, and that they did all they possibly could.

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