Comments on: Are markets making another blunder? Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:42:55 +0000 hourly 1 By: Mon, 24 Jun 2013 17:06:42 +0000 From a Dec 2012:

“When you talk about 2013 as another 1989 I guess you are still bearish economically? Do you disagree with the technocrats Ben Bernanke & Mario Draghi, the politicians Wolfgang Schäuble & Angela Merkel & François Hollande, the journalists Anatole Kaletsky & Roger Bootle & Jeremy Wagner and many others who call themselves cautiously optimistic and say we have passed the worst?” (28 Dec 2012, D.T., New York, Trader Financial Markets)

Yes of course I am still ultra bearish. The whole point of this web site and this article is that we are in the midst of a massive paradigm change, not just economically but also ethically and intellectually and spiritually. Think about the line above: “paradigm change is very sticky because even when a new insight is right, even dazzlingly right in hindsight, vested interests and other forms of inertia resist its adoption”. Where are we today? I think we are just about at the stage where is getting to be dazzlingly obvious to a lot of people including the author of that line, namely Niall Ferguson, that we are currently stuck on the wrong side of history during a paradigm change event. But how many steps have we taken toward the new era? So far, none. What does that mean? It means the disease is still raging, the ship is still sinking, the economic pain doesn’t stop until we wake up and change our lives. Why are all these people you mention cautiously optimistic etc? For the same reason that Steve Ballmer is cautiously optimistic of Windows 8 sales. Because their reality is being twisted upside down by their ego, on the trading floor we would say they are “talking their own book”.

It should be obvious to you, a trader in financial markets, that all these optimistic people have effectively lost the plot. You see you don’t even have to believe in paradigm change to be bearish. For example, back in 2008 I remember Niall Ferguson giving a radio interview arguing with the other panellists saying the long term outlook is appalling, we have WW2 style debt loads in the public sector, 1930s private sector debts, 1920s inequality, unaffordable heath and pension systems, declining education, gridlocked political systems, rapidly worsening environmental conditions and much smarter international competitors such as China. Ask yourself which of these factors lessened in the last five years of crisis? None right, they are all worse. EU politicians claim they have turned the corner on reforms but it’s all just talk. Look at Spain, in 2012 they have run an 8% deficit and unemployment is at 25% and the country is splitting apart. The USA is no better, the political system is totally dysfunctional and debt is piling up and the fundamental situation is far worse than it was five years ago. Therefore even a one eyed man who cannot see past the surface, in other words a man who cannot see the paradigm change taking place, can still see with his other eye that on the current path the next five years are going to be vastly worse than the last five years because we are still stuck in a well with no light around us!

By: Benny27 Mon, 24 Jun 2013 14:59:32 +0000 Yes, Markets Never Blunder… keep repeating that while looking back over the dot-com bust …. where do you goofs come from?

By: LeeAdler Sat, 22 Jun 2013 15:10:43 +0000 Idea that markets can “blunder” is shibboleth. Markets are liquidity meters. They can’t make mistakes. They reflect what is. Pundits make blunders. Misinterpreting the facts is their stock in trade.

Markets tell us what the price is. They don’t think. They don’t discount the future. Prices reflect the ebb and flow of systemic liquidity.

Chart- yzy.png

By: nzl-kz7 Fri, 21 Jun 2013 18:37:37 +0000 All the way through your post you state “investor”.

Huge problem for you, the vast majority of they money in this disconnected bubble is “speculators” with margin trading accounts, not term investors.

American companies and investors are sitting on the largest percentage of CASH on record.

Hence the news driven twitchy market as most of the money is hft and speculators, they don’t care which way it moves as long as it does and they are on the correct side off it or hedged safe.

I would love to be able to get the true market picture IE with all the hedged/covered positions removed.

This is very hard to do since many of the anti hedging regulations in various countries resulted in nothing except traders with multiple accounts.

By: unionwv Fri, 21 Jun 2013 15:01:13 +0000 Kaletsky: Just another “genius” who thinks he’s smarter than “the markets”.