Comments on: The case against a Chinese financial crisis http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/ Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:42:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: breezinthru http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1607 Thu, 27 Feb 2014 15:00:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1607 I mostly agree, but China still depends on its “world’s largest trade surplus”. That surplus needn’t evaporate completely to cause problems.

A sustained decrease in trade over time would cause businesses to fail and I think that there exists a tipping point beyond which instability and risk rises exponentially.

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By: UauS http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1606 Thu, 27 Feb 2014 04:08:49 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1606 “While Chinese leadership remain genuinely committed to all three major economic objectives… they now acknowledge that progress may not be possible simultaneously on all three fronts.”

What the Chinese leadership has never acknowledged is that there are actually two Chinese economies: an official one that is based on technology that Western corporations have shipped to China in exchange for cheap labor, and a shadow one that is based on production of bazillions of copycat/fake goods, many of which are sold nowadays on eBay. Most likely, something similar goes for the Chinese financial system as well.
This is an inherent and unavoidable trait of any totalitarian centralized system, which today’s China fully represents.

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By: cuago http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1605 Wed, 26 Feb 2014 03:57:42 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1605 in China there are few people like him
http://sieuthicua.info

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By: Wantunbiasednew http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1602 Tue, 25 Feb 2014 20:45:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1602 Briliant, deep analysis of Chinese economic situation. I would not comment about US 2008 crisis remarks.
In the next 15 years China will be focused on growth and building first class infrastructure for 1.4 billion nation. They need housing for another 400 million urban residents, it is 25 billion sqm (260 billion sqft) of real estate. To put it in simple perspective they build one United States of America in housing every 15 years. They build one USA of infrastructure (transport, manufacturing, energy) every 10 years. Current instabilities related to 250 million migrant workers are far more important than “rebalancing” or financial system reform. Only after China will finish its colossal investment programme and urbanization reaches about 70%-75% any financial reforms (f.e. of closed capital account) are possible.

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By: dyonisius http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1601 Tue, 25 Feb 2014 10:50:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1601 A. Kaletsky remains one of the subtlest and pertinent commentators in British press. I always trust his judgments.

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By: ECon-artist http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1599 Tue, 25 Feb 2014 00:53:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1599 Yawn. The only answer that is “certainly yes” is the fact that the Chinese economy will crater. Whether it happens this year or next or in five years; it is just a question of timing. It is inevitable. The more interesting commentary would be whether the economy can bounce back quickly enough without any long term negative consequences. That is all.

Counter to what the author writes in his own book, I guess this would be one of those situations where the Chinese system is a static set of institutions and not an evolutionary system that does not reinvent nor reinvigorate itself through crisis. I would love to always have it both ways too…

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By: BidnisMan http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1598 Mon, 24 Feb 2014 20:02:10 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1598 China and America are like the alcoholic and bottle store owner. The work together but the relationship is hardly a healthy one. China sits on reserves because it exports to the US and imports nothing back. Just like the bottle store owner, China cannot continue to sell their labor indefinitely to the US – something must give – just like the alcoholic who comes clean or dies.

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By: BidnisMan http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/02/24/the-case-against-a-chinese-financial-crisis/#comment-1597 Mon, 24 Feb 2014 19:55:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=870#comment-1597 “After all, the U.S. government allowed the failure of a medium-sized investment bank to degenerate into the greatest financial meltdown in modern history.”

Oh please. Lehman was only the final card on a very big house of cards. If they bailed it out it would have made no difference whatsoever to the 6 trillion hole.

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