Comments on: Forget the drama: A solution for Crimea http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/ Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:42:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: daniel_d http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-2580 Mon, 15 Dec 2014 09:15:43 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-2580 reading this article now in December 2014 i can see how hasty the author was. It didnt stop with Crimea, Russia has used same tactics to take power on eastern ukraine, a commercial airplane was shot down, russian submarines and jet fighters are wandering around europe. Bad predictions sir. Mr. Putin is behaving just as a feared Hitler would.

]]>
By: pinkerspost.com http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1735 Sat, 03 May 2014 17:06:41 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1735 Brilliant! And this could have been another solution… regrettably, too late! Pinkers Post entry 18 March 2014 (please scroll down): ‘Crimea for sale!’ http://pinkerspost.com/port.php

]]>
By: Pip2014 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1690 Tue, 01 Apr 2014 19:51:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1690 I was there during the takeover and whilst I fully agree that the whole thing was a clever “fait accompli” with a lot of local support, what left a bad taste in the mouth was the extremely menacing nature in which it was done. Unmarked, faceless, silent “foreign” troops everywhere in balaclavas, who were quite obviously Russian; organised gangs of thugs who would arrive by minibus with the sole aim of beating up any dissent including free press, and a UN envoy. It felt very like East Berlin in the 70’s. Good for those who are in the circle. Not good for the rest. I do feel very sorry for the non pro-Russian people of Ukraine-Crimea and who have settled there after generations of Soviet bullying. Tartars to name just some. They go about their business in very poor conditions but are law abiding folk. What is to become of them and the interests that they have tried to work for? Seems they helped oust a highly corrupt puppet president of Putin which we now know led to their downfall. I agree with Anatole that the West should not get involved in this but why not assist Kiev-Ukraine to join the EU as it wishes and help it become a modern prospering state? I was impressed by my brief visit to Kiev. I found it modern, organised, friendly and seemed to conform to European standards. Would this not be a way forward?

]]>
By: tx-peasant http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1689 Mon, 31 Mar 2014 07:41:59 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1689 As a Ukrainian-American with close family in both Russia and Ukraine, I can assure you that by annexing Crimea the Russian dictatorship made itself at least tens of millions of determined, angry and often armed opponents not just in Ukraine and other victim-nations-in-waiting, but in Russia itself. Ukrainians aren’t the only ones angry, lots of Britons and Americans are too. That can’t be good for business in Russia, and not seeing this is willful blindness – or a convenient way to share in some timely Gazprom largess.

]]>
By: savttester http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1688 Mon, 31 Mar 2014 07:08:29 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1688 !

]]>
By: DeweyLOlsen http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1687 Mon, 31 Mar 2014 05:59:43 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1687 A Pattern of World Conquerors from the North

by Avraham Gileadi Ph.D.

The Assyrians and Babylonians who conquered the ancient world both came “from the North” in relation to Israel when God’s people turned to wickedness. Those events established a pattern that would repeat itself prior to Jehovah’s coming to institute the earth’s millennium of peace. This time, however, it would not be the ten-tribed kingdom of Israel or the people of Judah in ancient Judea who would suffer invasion and destruction by a world power but God’s people who turn to wickedness in the modern age. This time, too, it would be an End-Time world power “from the North” that would overrun the world, following the pattern of those former events.

When God’s End-Time people reach the same level of wickedness that ancient Israel did, God will respond as did before: “Hail the Assyrian, the rod of my anger! He is a staff—my wrath in their hand. I will commission him against a godless nation, appoint him over the people [deserving] of my vengeance, to pillage for plunder, to spoliate for spoil, to tread underfoot like mud in the streets. Nevertheless, it shall not seem so to him; this shall not be what he has in mind. His purpose shall be to annihilate and to exterminate nations not a few” (Isaiah 10:5–7). “From the North shall come [pillars of] smoke, and no place he has designated shall evade it” (Isaiah 14:31).

6. 8. 2011
Isaiah’s Antichrist—The King of Assyria/Babylon

by Avraham Gileadi Ph.D.

Isaiah’s version of an End-Time Antichrist is the king of Assyria/Babylon, whom Isaiah portrays as a composite of types. That is, he combines several types or precedents of ancient tyrannical rulers to project a single End-Time one—a consummate archtyrant. Setting a precedent for world conquerors from the North were the kings of Assyria (Isaiah 10:5–14; 37:18, 21–27). To that type, Isaiah adds the king of Babylon, who is also a world conqueror from the North, but who styles himself as a demi-god and exemplifies Babylon’s idolatrous ideology (Isaiah 14:3–21; 47:1–8). In the end, however, because of the loyalty of God’s people, the archtyrant is put down.

Thus, Isaiah predicts: “But when my Lord has fully accomplished his work in Mount Zion and in Jerusalem, he will punish the king of Assyria for his notorious boasting and infamous conceit, because he said, ‘I have done it by my own ability and shrewdness, for I am ingenious. I have done away with the borders of nations, I have ravaged their reserves, I have vastly reduced the inhabitants. I have impounded the wealth of peoples like a nest, and I have gathered up the whole world as one gathers abandoned eggs; not one flapped its wings, or opened its mouth to utter a peep’” (Isaiah 10:12–14); “How the tyrant has met his end and tyranny ceased!” (Isaiah 14:4).

2. 8. 2012

]]>
By: AndersA http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1683 Sun, 30 Mar 2014 12:34:34 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1683 “Since all Western leaders recognize that Crimea will not be recovered — and is not worth fighting for — there will soon be no point in seriously challenging Russia’s annexation,…
Ukraine will desperately want to restore Russian trade…
since Russian hostility would permanently cripple the Ukrainian economy… ”

This is Pro Russian propaganda not worthy of publication, this is exactly what the Russians want to hear.
Russia would be equally desperate to restore trade if sanctions escalated, no western country has accepted Crimea to be a part of Russia.

]]>
By: songmun http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1682 Sun, 30 Mar 2014 07:47:53 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1682 1
Sorry Mr. Kaletsky, but You are deadly wrong about Russian stock market. I don’t know how familiar are you with Technical Analysis of charts, but hope know at least basics of it. I’m looking at Russian RTS index now and see it’s absolutely bearish in longer term. In Monday after Crimean annexation day RTS have broken very important support in 1200-1230 zone, where we have 3 bottoms made in 2011-2013 years. All the move up, which so excites you, is nothing more than countertrend testing of polarity line (broken support becomes resistance for move up, as technicals say). It’s typical psychological reaction of the market after “fait accompli”, nothing more, well known from past.
Poster child of this kind of reaction is Dow Jones Industrial Average’s chart from 1940. You can find there one of the heaviest selloffs when Germans invaded France in May’40 and big jump of the oversold market, when France capitulated.
And the end of the 40’s bear market in US came 2 years later. Russian RTS (and other indices like for example Micex too) are in bearish mode and will be in the nearest future. This jump of Russian market is nothing special and I can say RTS will be much lower than the Crimean panics minimum at 1016 pts in not so distant future. Nothing to exciting.

2.
You probably don’t know or don’t remember what (or rather who should I say) stopped Ruble from falling down. It was Russian Central Bank who intervened in Monday after Crimea annexation day, buying RUB for at least 10 billions of USD from Russian currency reserves. It’s not the Mr. Market himself with his unvisible hand, but very visible fist of Russian State isn’t it? So why excite this?
Russians intervened successfully, as Ruble was totally oversold before Crimea anexion, that’s all the secret.
And once again I can assure You, Mr. Kaletsky one look at USD/RUB pair chart with basic knowledge in technical analysis will tell you, all that move since the moment is nothing more than short-lived countertrend move. The bigger trend is to weaken Ruble and in not so distant future very important 36.5 zone at USD/RUB chart, where Central Bank stopped Ruble move, will be broken.

3
Realpolitik….Why not to go totally in Metternich spirit and tell to Mr Putin : “OK Mr President we absolutely accept Crimean anexation was Russia’s right move. Now give us a few dollar discount on Urals oil barrel price we buy from Russia as our reward” He would give you this, I’m absolutely sure. And You would hear many nice words from him about how he likes doing business with you. Disgusting? Why? And where is the border between disgusting and not in realpolitik?
“So what can we do? “ you could ask me. Now? Nothing, I know it. It’s too late. Western Europe has its hands fettered with Russian gas pipelines. All these BASF’s Bayer’s etc desperately need Russian gas to be competitive. Putin knows it too, and this is why he decided for the Crimea annexation. You could listen to us Central and East Europeans a few years ago, when we told you: “Be carefull trading with Russia! They use oil and gas as a kind of weapon!” But who cares about those stupid eastern nations knowledge? They speak those strange languages, overusing all those “sh” and “ch” sounds. We, Westerners are wise enough! Now Western Europe is too dependent from Russian gas to have other than “realpolitik” options, and this Mr Kaletsky’s text is next evidence of it. But once again, who cares about those East European opinions??

Let’s make new Yalta agreement with Putin about Ukraine’s future…. Selling Ukraine to Putin is cheap, and cost us, the West, nothing. It’s not our problem but those barbarian East nations, isn’t it Mr. Kaletsky?
And the 90’s so called Budapest Agreement, where Ukraine resigned of their atomic armory instead of US, French, British, Russian and Chinese waranties of Ukraine’s Independence is worth nothing, of course?
Believe it or not Mr Kaletsky, Ukrainians have read Metternich too. And hearing more and more “realpolitik” propositions like yours, from the West, they know Budapest Agreement was their big mistake, a few average Ukrainians told me so. Mr Arseny Yacenyuk, Ukraine’s PM said lately Ukraine don’t think about rebuilt of their atomic arsenal. Somehow I can’t believe him, as everybody sees now, having Western warranties is not bad, but having a few atomic bombs is much better.
Now You can send to the trash can all diplomacy efforts to stop atomic armaments. You will not find stupid enough country to believe in honesty of intensions and readiness of compliance of the signed agreements.
That’s the big, unexpected consequence of Western Crimean “realpolitik”, which could cost the World much more than a few dollars more on Russian oil barrel in the future….

4. Russia’s mostly defensive moves? Are you joking? You probably didn’t hear it, Mr Kaletsky, but just few days ago Putin signed initial agreement with Ms Kirchner, Argentina’s President, about having Russian Naval Base in Argentina. If this is not open and direct challenge to US Monroe’s doctrine for the first time since Soviet Empire’s collapse, than I don’t know what it is….

]]>
By: bluepanther http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1672 Sat, 29 Mar 2014 10:19:43 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1672 March 28 – Former Russian finance minister Aleksey Kudrin has said and official Russian news agencies have reported that that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is going to have extremely deleterious effects on the Russian economy, including massive capital flight and any hope of real economic growth this year.

Kudrin said yesterday that Russia will pay for its “independent foreign policy” in Crimea with 150 to 160 billion US dollars in pure capital flight this year and that the country’s economy which had been emerging from a serious recession will stagnate or even decline slightly (interfax.ru/russia/367828).

]]>
By: bluepanther http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/03/28/forget-the-drama-a-solution-for-crimea/#comment-1671 Fri, 28 Mar 2014 19:01:51 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=962#comment-1671 A very sunny view that oddly leaves out a few very important points. The continued record flood of capital flight from Russia despite Kaletsky’s assertion “the ruble and the Moscow stock exchange have been among the world’s strongest markets.” The key words here are “have been.” Current conditions do not warrant confidence, especially as Putin’s stated goal has been to repatriate Russian capital from abroad. Dream on.
Secondly, there will be years of economic malaise, graft, and corruption, and unanticipated costs for both Crimea and Russia in the switchover. Think of it as an even bigger sinkhole than the Sochi Olympics.
Thirdly, the issue of “political contagion” from Ukraine on Russia continues and has not been resolved by the Crimea move. Just as East Germany was always existentially threatened by the mere existence of West Germany, so Putin’s Russia is threatened by the mere fact of raucous politics next door in Ukraine. This does not bode well for future stability.

]]>