Comments on: The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/ Sat, 03 Jan 2015 16:42:55 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: LeeAdler http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2652 Mon, 22 Dec 2014 21:06:09 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2652 The US EIA says lifting costs are around $12/BBL in US and $10 in rest of world.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2014/12/wh at-becomes-of-the-broken-market-who-have -left-and-now-departed/

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By: AlkalineState http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2651 Mon, 22 Dec 2014 17:47:40 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2651 Oil is not special.

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By: BubblesGump http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2638 Sun, 21 Dec 2014 13:24:44 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2638 Time to teach OPEC a lesson. With the booming oil and gas business in non-OPEC nations and more on the horizon, countries like Saudi Arabia are losing their dominant and lofty position and are trying to regain control and their status. Since the mid-east produces nothing else really of value other than oil and gas, they are in no position to flex their muscle. If Iran comes back on line, we’re going to see 1.5 million bbls per day up front. As Iraq stabilizes and Libya stabilizes, and both will, more oil is going to enter the world market. Russia will also get on board down the road. Now then, let the world community and a new market drive prices and squeeze the mid-east. These desert communities need to import so much, food for instance, let’s see how they do when the world cuts them off, or makes imports very expensive. The Saudi’s know perfectly well that the recent boom outside of OPEC requires higher prices to produce the oil profitably. It’s not a matter of efficiency.

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By: norcalguy101 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2632 Sun, 21 Dec 2014 02:45:21 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2632 It’s not just the United States oil shale extraction. Canada’s tar sands in Alberta are also taking market share away from OPEC.

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By: ARJTurgot2 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2630 Sun, 21 Dec 2014 00:10:21 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2630 We’ve been here before, will probably come back again. The Saudis have no intention of letting shale oil weaken their hold on U.S. policy. Those of us in the western shale belt that have seen this before have been waiting for this shoe to drop. Within the next year you are far more likely to read stories of layoffs and distress in N.Dakota than you are similar stories from Kuwait. The Saudis have a far better grasp on how the industry works than Reuters’ editorial writers do. A whole new generation of young American geologists are about to get an education.

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By: mcgriff http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2628 Sat, 20 Dec 2014 13:59:06 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2628 As always, Mr. Kaletsky offers a reasoned, logical and cogent view.
My bet is that of his 2 possible scenarios, the one where the OPEC cartel cannot get their pricing in line due to internal political divergences, naturally leads to his other scenario of oil trading at $55-60 at the upper limit.
Sure, this may well discomfit the investors in small US E&P’s, but the reality is that this will do a tremendous amount of good to the world economy with lower energy costs and attendant improvement in GDP numbers worldwide.
Before the oil patch brethren jump in to debunk this- I am a long time investor in the oil and energy business. I think this shakeout will be short term shocking, but long term healthy for the US energy business. Bottom line- we have the reserves, we have the technology, and the US will likely be fossil fuel independent in not so many years in the future.
Which means that the Saudis, the Venezuelans and the Libyans can go pound sand….:)

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By: Truth_Teller http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2627 Sat, 20 Dec 2014 13:46:59 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2627 This is a half-wit analysis. 4 MMBO per day US shale oil production caused the drop in prices. These oil wells deplete at 75% per year. So when investment drops production drops noticeably in 6 months. Markets also anticipate 6 months, so prices will be going up within 12 months. These environment is an auspicious time to invest in O&G like 2009 – only better.

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By: boontee http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2624 Sat, 20 Dec 2014 02:22:11 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2624 Oil price plunging to $20 soon? Rather unlikely.

The recent sudden near 50% drop has caught many off guard, adding greater economic woes to countries like Russia and Nigeria but unexpected relief to countries which are huge energy consumers. Could this be the result of austerity drive?

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By: Andreid http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2623 Sat, 20 Dec 2014 00:04:36 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2623 Mr Kaletsky, why do you come up with this theory now and not when oil prices were trading at the top of the range like a few months ago?

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By: houtex77 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/2014/12/19/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel/#comment-2620 Fri, 19 Dec 2014 21:04:35 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/anatole-kaletsky/?p=1594#comment-2620 I feel so sorry for those who rushed to buy homes at these outrageous prices during the “recovery”. Their homes are already losing value and will be totally unsellable when the bottom drops out.

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