Anatole Kaletsky

Is Japan set to lead after 20 years of torpor?

By Anatole Kaletsky
December 19, 2012

As 2012 draws to a conclusion, it’s likely that the fiscal cliff will be averted, U.S. politics and monetary policy are irrevocably set, European politics are suspended until September’s German election and the Chinese leadership transition is over. In short, the political and monetary uncertainties that have obsessed financial markets and paralyzed business have all been dispelled. As a result, 2013 promises to be a year for businesses and investors to focus again on economic fundamentals and corporate performance instead of delaying decisions while they waited with bated breath for the next euro summit, or election, or meeting of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. In one part of the world, however, events are moving the other way.

Europe needs Mario Monti more than ever

By Anatole Kaletsky
December 13, 2012

Remember the euro crisis? For most of 2012, politicians, investors and business leaders were almost unanimous in their belief that the possible breakup of the euro would be a massive risk to the world economy. But today the euro is 5 percent higher against the dollar than it was six months ago, European stock markets have outperformed Wall Street by 11 percent in the same period, and Italian government bonds have been among the best investments of 2012.

Counterintuitive economics can help politicians

By Anatole Kaletsky
December 6, 2012

Absurd wishful thinking. This is how most finance ministers describe criticism of their tough budget policies designed to control government debt and reduce borrowing. Britain, even more than Germany, has been in the vanguard of this austerity movement, as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne demonstrated again in this week’s budget statement:

Britain’s two cheers for Carney

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 29, 2012

When Mark Carney, the respected head of Canada’s central bank, was appointed on Monday to the even more august position of governor of the Bank of England, Britain’s reaction was a characteristic blend of self-deprecation and smugness.

Economic optimism now official

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 23, 2012

Economic optimism is now official. The year ahead could be “a very good one for the American economy,” Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, declared on Tuesday. If he turns out to be right, these words could probably be applied to the world economy as a whole.

Confessions of a deficit denier

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 15, 2012

Here is a confession: I am a deficit denier.

To say this in respectable society is to be reviled as a self-serving rogue, worse than someone who denies climate change. Yet whenever I see a budget crisis — the U.S. falling off a fiscal cliff; austerity protests paralyzing Europe; Britain’s governing coalition tearing itself apart over missed budget targets -– I cannot resist the same conclusion: These countries’ leaders should take a deep breath, relax and stop worrying about deficits.

An optimistic vision of Obama’s second term

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 7, 2012

President Barack Obama’s re-election is good news for the world economy and financial markets. Of course a victory by Mitt Romney, unlikely though it was, might have been even better news, which is perhaps why stock markets fell sharply after the election. If Romney had won, his promised tax cuts and willingness to ignore budget deficits would have delivered a big stimulus to the U.S. economy and triggered a potential boom. But even without this fiscal boost, recent U.S. economic indicators, especially on housing, employment and bank lending, have pointed clearly in the right direction – and now there is every reason to expect these positive trends to accelerate.

Would Romney be better for Europe?

By Anatole Kaletsky
November 1, 2012

Looking at the opinion polls, there is no contest for which of the presidential candidates would be better for Europe. In a survey published this week by U.K.-based YouGov, 90 percent of European voters said they would support Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. But does this lopsided support correspond to the true interests of Europeans?

Is a revolution in economic thinking under way?

By Anatole Kaletsky
October 25, 2012

Four years after the start of the Great Recession, the global economy has not recovered, voters are losing patience and governments around the world are falling like ninepins. This is a situation conducive to revolutionary thinking, if not yet in politics, then maybe in economics.

To escape the Great Recession, embrace contradiction

By Anatole Kaletsky
October 18, 2012

Where will jobs and growth come from? As we enter the fifth year of the Great Recession, people all over the world are asking this question, but their political leaders are not providing any convincing answers, as has been made obvious in the U.S. presidential debate and the European Union summit this week.