Anatole Kaletsky

Should Brazilians cheer if they lose the World Cup?

By Anatole Kaletsky
June 13, 2014

Brazil's President Rousseff attends a meeting of the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change in Brasilia

As the World Cup kicks off in Sao Paolo this week, the home team is the runaway favorite, with a 45 percent chance of winning the tournament, according to Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight and 48.5 percent probability according to the statistical boffins at Goldman Sachs. But apart from the bookmakers — who stand to lose a fortune if Brazil wins, since they are offering odds of around 3 to 1, instead of the 1 to 1 suggested by Silver’s and Goldman’s calculations — another, more surprising, group is secretly rooting against the favorite: Brazil’s own financial and business community, along with much of the country’s middle class.

Now may not be the time to buy bonds

By Anatole Kaletsky
June 6, 2014

anatole -- top

Why are interest rates so low? And how long will they stay that way?

Now that the European Central Bank has passed another historic milestone by imposing negative interest rates on a major part of the world economy, there is one explanation of the unprecedented collapse of interest that everyone can agree on. Central banks can set money market interest rates as low or as high as they please just by giving commercial banks whatever amount of excess credit is needed to keep these rates at the chosen level.

Despite election results, reason still rules Europe

By Anatole Kaletsky
May 30, 2014

anatole -- french student

When can a vote of 25 percent be described as a “stunning victory” or even a “political earthquake”?

China-Russia is a match made in heaven, and that’s scary

By Anatole Kaletsky
May 22, 2014

putin-li

Check-mate.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Russia’s historic $400 billion gas-supply agreement with China, he must have felt the satisfaction of a chess grandmaster revealing the inexorable outcome of a complicated endgame.

Euro zone’s big problems require big fixes

By Anatole Kaletsky
May 16, 2014

ECB President Draghi addresses a news conference in BrusselsAt last, the European Central Bank seems ready to inject some adrenalin into the moribund euro zone economy. After last week’s news conference, when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi strongly hinted that action would take place after the June 5 council meeting, there have been a host of interviews and leaks specifically describing the new ideas the bank has in mind.

No reason for these stock market jitters

By Anatole Kaletsky
May 8, 2014

anatole -- unhappy trader

“Sell in May and go away.”

This stock market adage has served investors well four years in a row. Every year since 2010, stock markets around the world have suffered significant corrections between a high reached in May and a low in the summer or early autumn: by 15 percent in 2010, 19 percent in 2011, 9 percent in 2012 and 5 percent in 2013, as gauged by the Standard & Poor’s 500.

Why the Russian sanctions don’t work

By Anatole Kaletsky
May 1, 2014

putin!!

Why did the U.S. and European sanctions against Russia earlier this week trigger a rebound in the ruble and the Moscow stock market?

Abe’s disturbing lack of focus

By Anatole Kaletsky
April 24, 2014

President Barack Obama’s trip to Asia this week has focused mostly on Japan’s territorial disputes with China. On this issue, Obama seems to be repeating the same mistakes he made in Ukraine.

Time to stop following defunct economic policies

By Anatole Kaletsky
April 19, 2014

Can economists contribute anything useful to our understanding of politics, business and finance in the real world?

Behind Wall Street’s anxiety

By Anatole Kaletsky
April 10, 2014

The recent economic news has been about as investor-friendly as anyone could imagine.