Andy's Feed
Sep 17, 2013

India in depth: Losing growth marathon to China

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The
opinions expressed are his own)

By Andy Mukherjee

SINGAPORE, Sept 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) – Wars, internal
strife and malaria keep nations poor until most of them
eventually graduate to middle-income status. What starts then is
the race to get rich, an arduous marathon that only few
countries have managed to finish. While demographic forces
determine the intensity of the initial growth spurt, the winners
tend to be those that build stamina along the way by paying
attention to institutions, infrastructure and fiscal policies.

Sep 11, 2013
via Breakingviews

Japan’s bond market calm hides fiscal disquiet

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The calm in the Japanese government bond market is hiding growing fiscal disquiet. After briefly shooting up to 1 percent in May, yields on 10-year JGBs are back down to 0.74 percent, even as inflation expectations have firmed up. This Zen-like state of affairs is all the more striking considering that interest rates are increasing across the Western world as investors anticipate an end to the cheap money of the post-financial crisis era.

Sep 9, 2013
via Breakingviews

Japan index: Wages and consumption stymie recovery

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Firmer prices, stronger bank lending and higher manufacturing output helped the Breakingviews Abenomics Index reverse half the previous month’s decline in July. But unless wages and spending rise, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will struggle to win his war against deflation.

Sep 5, 2013
via Breakingviews

Not all Asian countries need to fear the Fed

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Falling Asian currencies have triggered a sell-off in bonds and equities. Some investors now fear a repeat of a 1997-style crisis. Yet while a new Breakingviews’ interactive risk map shows no economy in the Asia-Pacific region is entirely sober, it is India that has become most addicted to cheap money.

Sep 3, 2013
via Breakingviews

The lessons for China from Japan’s lost decade

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Is China condemned to suffer a Japanese “lost decade”? Its economy today has three big similarities with Japan in the late 1980s: High and rising debt, diminishing export competitiveness and an ageing society. China can avoid slipping into Japan’s deflationary hole, but only if it learns from Tokyo’s failure to cleanse its banking system.

Sep 2, 2013
via Breakingviews

Emerging market currency rescue is a pipe dream

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Can emerging markets fight back against currency speculators? An idea floated by India to mount a joint defence has a certain charm. After a rout in the rupee the past three months, New Delhi wants other developing countries to help in a coordinated intervention in offshore foreign exchange markets, Reuters reported on Aug. 31. In reality, it sounds unworkable.

Aug 29, 2013
via Breakingviews

Currency market’s rude wakeup call stirs Indonesia

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

It took a rude wakeup call from the currency market to stir Indonesia’s central bank. At an emergency meeting on Aug. 29, the monetary authority raised its benchmark and overnight deposit rates. It’s a decision Bank Indonesia should have made at its last official gathering less than two weeks ago. An obsession with economic growth stayed its hand.

Aug 22, 2013

Breakingviews – Fed liquidity curbs will act as Asia’s detox plan

By Andy Mukherjee

SINGAPORE (Reuters Breakingviews) – The Federal Reserve is forcing Asia to kick its addiction to hot money. The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates had made the region’s dwindling trade surpluses look an increasingly dangerous habit. Though markets may be turbulent, pricier local money or cheaper currencies will improve the trade balance for most Asian countries.

For the past decade, Asia’s trade surpluses have kept the region’s financial systems lubricated with dollars without piling up foreign debt. But those surpluses have narrowed, increasing the reliance on fickle overseas capital. As recently as the third quarter of 2012, Asia outside Japan was still running a cumulative trade surplus of almost 1.5 percent of combined GDP. By the first quarter of this year, that had turned into a small deficit.

Aug 22, 2013
via Breakingviews

Fed liquidity curbs will act as Asia’s detox plan

Photo

By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Federal Reserve is forcing Asia to kick its addiction to hot money. The prospect of higher U.S. interest rates had made the region’s dwindling trade surpluses look an increasingly dangerous habit. Though markets may be turbulent, pricier local money or cheaper currencies will improve the trade balance for most Asian countries.

Aug 21, 2013
via Breakingviews

India in depth: Let rupee sink to save the economy

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By Andy Mukherjee

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

India’s failing defence of the rupee is doing more harm than good. It’s time New Delhi left the plunging currency to market forces and shifted its focus to boosting exports and investment.

    • About Andy

      "Andy Mukherjee covers Asian economies from Singapore. He joined from The Straits Times where he was a senior writer. Andy spent eight years at Bloomberg News, the last five as an Asia columnist. In 2004, and again in 2006, he was awarded the second prize for outstanding commentary writing by the New York-based South Asian Journalists' Association. He left Bloomberg to join a start-up business television station in Mumbai where he was the executive editor until 2010. Andy has an undergraduate degree in journalism from University of Delhi."
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