LONDON (Reuters) – Stuart Tootal is a former British Parachute Regiment colonel who led a battalion in Afghanistan. Now a defense commentator and author of “Danger Close,” an account of his experiences, he spoke to Reuters about the prospects for the NATO campaign.

IS THE CONFLICT WINNABLE?

“When you talk about winnable, the successful end state is going to be something short of a complete victory. It’s not conventional war. Is there an end state of stability, non-export of violence, achievable? Yes. How are we going to get there? With a proper counter-insurgency campaign where all the lines of development are properly resourced. An essential stepping stone is to win over the center of gravity, which is the people, so they don’t support the insurgent, they support something else that brings about betterment in their lives so they don’t feel the need to pick up a gun.

“I don’t think it’s going to be easy to get there. It’s going to take a long time and a lot of resources.

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) – Stuart Tootal is a former British Parachute Regiment colonel who led a battalion in Afghanistan. Now a defence commentator and author of "Danger Close", an account of his experiences, he spoke to Reuters about the prospects for the NATO campaign. IS THE CONFLICT WINNABLE? "When you talk about winnable, the successful end state is going to be something short of a complete victory. It’s not conventional war. Is there an end state of stability, non-export of violence, achievable? Yes. How are we going to get there? With a proper counter-insurgency campaign where all the lines of development are properly resourced. An essential stepping stone is to win over the centre of gravity, which is the people, so they don’t support the insurgent, they support something else that brings about betterment in their lives so they don’t feel the need to pick up a gun. "I don’t think it’s going to be easy to get there. It’s going to take a long time and a lot of resources. IS PULLING OUT AN OPTION? "9/11 is a good starting point. You can’t have ungoverned space which has an ability to breed that sort of terrorist attack, and that’s Afghanistan. "If we were to withdraw before the mission is complete, it would destablize the region, not least in the relationship with Pakistan, and what is happening in north Pakistan is having an effect in Afghanistan. There is containment. "The other thing is the enormous spur we would give to extremist movements across the world, particularly al Qaeda and its cohorts, at a time when many counter-terrorist strategies and initiatives, and I mean all lines of development, education, political, social as well as military actions, are probably having a positive effect in clamping down. WHAT ARE THE LESSONS OF HISTORY IN AFGHANISTAN? "This is not a rerun of the Soviets. The idea that Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires is a very simple way of looking at history and reinterpreting it. NATO are not an inmperial, red-coated army, they are not the Soviets. NATO is an international mission of some 42 nations with a very clear U.N. mandate. The Russians had no such international mandate. It was driven by Cold War politics, a form of superpower imperialism, much in the way that our 19th Century interventions were. "Afghanistan is not Vietnam. Vietnam was about superpower rivalry, about keeping the communists out of the south, it was an application of conventional warfare in a very unconventional environment and it probably didn’t have a great deal of ethical justification behind it."HOW STRONG ARE THE TALIBAN?"I would read that from a counter-insurgency point of view, they are actually getting weaker. Their strength should be measured in how many people support them, not how many fighters they have or how many fighters we kill."The Taliban are not making the advances that some people make out they are. That’s not to say they are not getting materially stronger in some ways but they are also taking a beating from NATO, but you can’t measure success in pure kinetic attritional terms. The focus is on the people.ARE THE AMERICANS APPLYING THE RIGHT STRATEGY AND TACTICS?"I think the Americans have got counter-insurgency. And that is the result of they’ve got some seminal military thinkers in the likes of (U.S. General David) Petraeus. What Petraeus delivered in Iraq when it was all going badly wrong is impressive. He pulled old lessons together with new thinking and really was exceptional. He made a huge difference in Iraq. "In counter-insurgency, there are fundamental principles. there’s no blueprint but there’s a framework that you have to adjust and make fit for the local dynamics of where you operate. With a huge amount of making some initial mistakes, learning from those mistakes, understanding the nature of the conflict. "Counter insurgency is a boots-on-the-ground intensive business. If you go into a Taliban area you have to stay there." WILL MILITARY DEATHS AFFECT PUBLIC SUPPORT? "The body bag syndrome will start to have a very negative effect. We are clear what we are trying to achieve. That may not be articulated publically to the best of the (British) government’s ability. They need to explain the rationale of being in Afghanistan, what we are trying to achieve, how we are going to acheive it a way that makes sense to the people of this country. Because if we lose in Afghanistan, the reason will not be on the dusty plains of Helmand or Kandahar, but in the capitals Washington and London a la Vietnam. (For story on NATO forces in Afghanistan, click [ID:nLDE6000WF] (For story on Col. Tootal, click [ID:nLDE60O1MW])

LONDON (Reuters) – The NATO campaign to bring stability to Afghanistan and deny militants a base there can succeed if Western governments stay the course, a former British paratroop colonel says.

After several difficult years following the initial U.S. intervention in 2001, foreign armies have refined their counter-insurgency tactics. But it is vital that ample resources are provided, not just for the military effort but also for social, economic and political development, Stuart Tootal said.

Bowing to public emotion over British soldiers’ deaths and pulling out troops would leave a dangerous situation in the region and encourage other militant groups, Tootal told Reuters before an international conference on Afghanistan this week.

“Do we have an achievable mission? I think now we do. I don’t think it’s going to be easy to get there. It’s going to take a long time and it’s going take a lot of resources. There’ll be risks and shocks along the way which we have to accept if we believe that Afghanistan is important,” he said.

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) – The NATO campaign to bring stability to Afghanistan and deny militants a base there can succeed if Western goverments stay the course, a former British paratroop colonel says. After several difficult years following the initial U.S. intervention in 2001, foreign armies have refined their counter-insurgency tactics. But it is vital that ample resources are provided, not just for the military effort but also for social, economic and political development, Stuart Tootal said. Bowing to public emotion over British soldiers’ deaths and pulling out troops would leave a dangerous situation in the region and encourage other militant groups, Tootal told Reuters before an international conference on Afghanistan this week. "Do we have an achievable mission? I think now we do. I don’t think it’s going to be easy to get there. It’s going to take a long time and it’s going take a lot of resources. There’ll be risks and shocks along the way which we have to accept if we believe that Afghansitan is important," he said. A senior NATO intelligence official said last month the Taliban had expanded their influence across Afghanistan and were now running a full-fledged insurgency. They had their own "governors" in all but one province and had a government-in-waiting. Foreign troop deaths are also at their highest in the eight-year war. Tootal commanded 3 Para battalion of Britain’s elite Parachute Regiment in Helmand province in 2006 after earlier service in Northern Ireland, the Gulf War and Iraq. Now working in corporate security, he wrote about his Afghan experiences in the book "Danger Close" and is also a noted defence commentator. The most important battle in Afghanistan was for the support of the people, he said. Although the Taliban have appeared to be more agressive and growing stronger this year, there was little sign they were actually winning over the population, he said. "The majority of people don’t want the Taliban back. I would read that from a counter-insurgency point of view, they are actually getting weaker. The Taliban are not making the advances that some people make out they are. That’s not to say they are not getting materially stronger in some ways but they are also taking a beating from NATO." "Regardless of the problems of the Karzai regime, there is a huge international effort to make it better. A society after 30 years of war is going to have difficulties and we can’t expect that there’s going to be some form of cookie-cutter copy of Western liberal democracy in Afghansitan. And if the Afghan people don’t want that we shouldn’t be trying to force it on them," Tootal said. Last week’s Taliban attack on the capital Kabul, although a cause for concern, should not provoke panic, he said. "It was clamped down on quite quickly. It wasn’t as bad as Mumbai and India’s considered to be a far more stable country. So these things happen, but they need to be seen in the context." AFGHAN FORCES ARE CRUCIAL Training and building up the Afghan army and police force were a crucial part of the plan and would take time. "You can’t run people through a few weeks training with all the cultural challenges involved and then expect them to be a first-rate force." The Afghan police had a bad reputation which needed to be sorted out. But the army was making progress, he said. "I think they have demonstrated on numerous occasions evidence of real capabilty. They are a disciplined force, they are multi-ethnic. I think they have sense of legitimacy among the Afghan people." "We’ve got to keep driving them forward, building them up, and allowing them step by step to take greater role in their own security because that is part of getting to the end state." Should NATO withdraw before the mission was complete, instability could spread across the region, especially in Pakistan, which is already battling insurgents. It would also give a huge boost to al Qeda and other militants across the world. "If we are seen to fail in Afghanistan, that would have very negative effect on the successes that have already been achieved elsewhere." "There’s also a moral obligation. We went into Afghanistan, we changed the regime for the right reasons. We then failed to resource it properly, which has led to it becoming far more difficult. Can we just walk away from it? I don’t think we can." A successful end result would be not be complete victory in the sense of a conventional war, he said. It would be a reasonably stable country that was not a safe haven for militants to operate across the globe. "How are we going to get there.? With a proper counter-insurgency campaign where all the lines of development are properly resourced. An essential steping stone is to win over the centre of gravity, which is the people, so they don’t support the insurgent, they support something else that brings about betterment in their lives so they dont feel the need to pick up a gun." For story on NATO forces in Afghanistan, click [ID:nLDE6000WF]

LONDON (Reuters) – Singer Bob Dylan reminisces about Christmas past, turkey dinners and his favorite holiday songs in a rare interview in a magazine for homeless people.

The 68-year-old singer has baffled fans and critics with his new album “Christmas in the Heart” — a collection of carols and traditional yuletide songs delivered in his croaking voice.

All proceeds will go to charities for the homeless and hungry in the United States, Britain and 80 poor countries.

Asked why he picked those organizations, Dylan told the interviewer: “They get food straight to the people. No military organization, no bureaucracy, no governments to deal with.”