Are the banks ready to yank TXU's financing in favor of paying a break up fee and walking away?
According to this Wall Street Journal blog entry on July 26, a novel theory is circulating on Wall Street that banks could decide to pull megabuyout financing deals, pay the break up fees, and walk away. Doing that would be cheaper in the long run than being stuck with all that unwanted debt on their balance sheets, so the theory goes.
An interesting theory, no doubt, but one that sources tell DealZone is far-fetched, or in British terms: "bollocks." Banks should be able to survive any "hanging" from bridge loans, according to this Reuters article. In addition, the comments section of the Journal's blog entry is filled with people throwing cold water on the theory.
Nevertheless, the theory has spilled over into KKR and TPG's $32 billion leveraged buyout of Texas utility TXU, prompting a London-based article from AFX News/Thomson Financial headlined: "Lenders mull pulling out of TXU and pay 1 bln usd break-up fee"
From the article:
"Banks led by Citigroup are considering whether they should offer to pay a 1 bln usd break-up fee in order to get the buyout bidders for Dallas-based energy company TXU to break the agreement, according to sources.
The lenders are trying to avoid being stuck with 37.2 bln usd in committed debt to fund the purchase of TXU. The lead arrangers for the debt are understood to be Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley."
Reached by DealZone, TPG, KKR and Citigroup declined to comment.
For what it's worth, TXU shares were flat most of the morning, and down just 19 cents by midday, so the market doesn't seem to be giving the report much credit. Shares of TXU have been trading lower in the last few days, but that's not surprising given the broad credit market concerns. The reputional risk banks face by walking away from their prized private equity clients would seem too high to pull such a move.
Jon Najarian, co-founder of option information Web site optionmonster.com in Chicago, says:
"The lack of transparency in the credit market has pushed option volatility higher across the board, especially deal stocks such as TXU and First Data."
Najarian acknowledged the Citigroup-TXU rumor, but said traders were not giving it much thought anymore.
"TXU October 60 puts were active, trading 8,100 contracts all for 85 cents a contract with the stock at $66.02. The price of those options are unchanged so far and there is no indication that there was any panic to the put purchase earlier today."
If by chance banks do take the plunge and pull financings in exchange for break-up fees, Justin Monteith, market analyst, KDP Investment Advisors says the bright side is that it "would certainly go a long way towards reducing the overhang of anticipated bond and loan supply this year."
(With reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago and Dena Aubin in New York)
(Photo: Reuters file)