Only the brave or the foolish would make predictions about the future amid the biggest market upheaval in three generations. But it is already clear the crisis is profoundly reshaping the commodity trading industry. 
 
Our commodities and energy columnist John Kemp, formerly an economist for RBS Sempra in London, lays out his thoughts on how the industry will be remade over the next few years. Click here to read. 

This photo from Niall Kavanagh is one of a series on a plane crash in Wicklow county, Ireland. Niall sent in his strong images quickly from this news event and they were sent along to our chief photographer. In this case the images weren't used on the Reuters wire but Niall put his pictures in a position to be able to be used by sending them in quickly.

View this week's You Witness slideshow here.

Anyone scratching their heads over executive compensation can be forgiven for being a bit puzzled. These days, it’s hard to keep track of who owes what, which executives are getting a fat bonus, and what might happen if government bailout money reaches bankers’ pockets.

The Wall Street Journal sparked more debate today in a report outlining that the same financial giants getting cash infusions contractually owe executives more than $40 billion in deferred pay, including bonuses.

Now banks are grappling with how to retain and attract top talent without setting off a storm of criticism by angry taxpayers and regulators alike.

Most recently, Rep. Barney Frank issued a dire warning on banks' use of government money, saying: "Any use of the these funds for any purpose other than lending -- for bonuses, for severance pay, for dividends, for acquisitions of other institutions, etc. -- is a violation of the terms of the Act."

Meanwhile, the job situation got a little grimmer today. How grim? Enough that a major Wall Street lobby group had to lay off 25 percent of its staff as the financial crisis spreads.

What’s your take on executive compensation? Share your thoughts below.

In advertising, you don't get much bigger than Procter & Gamble -- or much smaller than a start-up with your name on the door. But it seems Jim Stengel, the former P&G global marketing head, figures he can make something big out of the small company he's launching on Monday, Jim Stengel LLC.

Indeed, in the release announcing the new venture, which wasn't a very well-kept secret, he says the goal of the company is "to accelerate a movement to deeply rethink and transform the roles and meaning of marketing and branding."

Now that's big.

Basically, Stengel's philosophy is that marketing should be purpose-based, meaning advertising should address the fundamental question of how a company helps make a customer's life better.

Or as the Wall Street Journal put it earlier this week: The well-known adman maintains that the idea of "purpose" isn't just the latest cooked-up marketing-speak. He says dozens of companies and brands have used this approach. He points to P&G's Pampers brand, which several years ago decided it had a higher purpose: helping moms develop healthy, happy babies, rather than just keeping babies' bottoms dry.

So how does Stengel get the rest of the advertising world on board? He says he's going to write a book, consult with business leaders, and land some speaking engagements. It's a little different than pitching Pampers, Head & Shoulders, or Tide, but you never know...

(Photo: Reuters)

The following financial services industry appointments were announced on Oct. 31, linked where possible to personal profiles on LinkedIn. To inform us of other job changes, please e-mail moves@thomsonreuters.com.

LINKLATERS
Law firm Linklaters elected Alberto Luzarraga as a partner in its corporate/mergers and acquisitions practice group in New York. Luzarraga joins from Shearman & Sterling.

JUPITER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT HOLDINGS LTD
The holding company for the Jupiter group of companies appointed Matteo Dante Perruccio as nonexecutive director. He was recently appointed as chief executive of Hermes Funds of Hedge Funds.

MULVANEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LTD
The investment management company named Alistair McNaughton as chief legal officer. Prior to joining MCM, Alistair was deputy head of legal at Threadneedle and held senior legal positions at Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Hill Samuel.

SHORE CAPITAL GROUP
The investment banking group appointed an Edinburgh-based team from Landsbanki Securities (UK)/ Teathers Ltd to spearhead the opening of an Edinburgh office for Shore Capital. The new recruits include Richard Sloss and Andrew Keith, who formerly worked together at Deutsche Bank AG. On the research side, David Phillips is joining to cover support services, particularly construction services.

NOMURA HOLDINGS INC
The Japanese bank named new regional line heads in its global investment banking operations. In Europe, Middle East and Africa, Christian Meissner and William Vereker will be appointed as heads of investment banking, and Yoshiyuki Numano will take on the position of co-head of investment banking. In Asia-Pacific, ex-Japan, Glenn Schiffman will be appointed as head of Asia-Pacific investment banking and Toshiyasu Iiyama as co-head of Asia-Pacific investment banking based in Hong Kong.

THB GROUP PLC

British specialist insurance broker said Frank Murphy will succeed the group's current chief executive Vic Thompson, who plans to retire on April 30, 2009. Murphy is CEO of THB's Lloyd's broking operation, Thompson Heath & Bond Ltd.

COLUMBUS, Ohio - California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama needs to bulk up. 

 The former bodybuilder and action movie star, who was campaigning for Republican presidential candidate John McCain, said he would like to invite the lanky senator from Illinois to an annual body building expo. 

 "I want to invite Sen. Obama because ... he needs to do something about those skinny legs," Schwarzenegger told a rally in Ohio, saying Obama had "scrawny little arms" that needed work too. 

 "We're going to make him do some squats." 

 Obama goes to the gym regularly and plays basketball to stay in shape but often endures ribbing for his slim physique. 

 Schwarzenegger, whose wife, Maria Shriver, supports Obama, said the Illinois senator didn't need to work on his body alone. 

"If we only could do something about putting some meat on his ideas," Schwarzenegger said to roaring applause. 

 "Now Sen. McCain on the other hand, he's built like a rock." 

 McCain was finishing a two-day bus tour through Ohio, a key battleground state that he must win to beat Obama in Tuesday's election. Obama is ahead in the polls.

Photo credit: Reuters/Brian Snyder (Schwarzenegger introduces McCain at a campaign stop in Columbus, Ohio, Oct. 31, 2008)

Can you tell it's book-flacking time?

Vanity Fair is running the second excerpt from the forthcoming book that Michael Wolff wrote about News Corp chief Rupert Murdoch (this one centers on his family), and Wolff is making the rounds this week to talk about it. He was on CNBC moments ago, engaging in everyone's favorite media parlor game: Parsing Murdoch's every move like a multi-clause sentence. Friday's appearance follows a panel discussion at a PaidContent.org conference earlier this week where he made similar remarks. Here's what he said on CNBC.

What will Murdoch do after buying The Wall Street Journal? What's his next move?

"I'm not sure that he exactly knows. One of the problems here is that he bought a newspaper and not only did he buy a newspaper, but if he had only waited six months to buy that newspaper he would have saved a billion and a half dollars." (Nothing like hindsight, is there?)

What will he buy? What will he sell?

"I don't think that he'll do either in the short term. I think in the short term they'll try to manage their businesses the best way they know how."

Does Rupert care that his stock is down?

"Does he care? No! Do the people around him care? The people holding stock options? Well, let me put it this way. Having spent a lot of time around that building, I have heard people at the highest echelons of that company complaining deeply about the price of News Corp shares."

Was buying the Journal a mistake?

"I don't think it's a mistake for Rupert. I think it's actually the crowning glory for Rupert. Is it a business mistake? Of course it's a business mistake. It's a newspaper!"

Who will run News Corp after Murdoch dies?

"I think we know who it's going to be. His four adult children are going to be very clearly holding the reins.
James will be the CEO. ... It depends on when Rupert departs this vale of tears. Is james ready to be the CEO? ... Rupert wants all his children as close to him as they can possibly be but there's no question at this point that the heir apparent is James."

Would News Corp buy CBS? Its stock is falling like a rock.

"Somebody is going to buy CBS. Is it going to be News Corp? My bet would probably be Time Warner as the buyer for CBS."

(Photo: Reuters)

(Reporting and Writing by Alex Dobuzinskis)

Comedians Sarah Silverman and Jimmy Kimmel had an entertaining television reunion Thursday, as she appeared on his talk show more than three months after they announced their breakup, and the two went over some old memories. 

It started off like a conversation from any on-again, off-again relationship -- awkward.
    
"What have you been up to? Everything good?" Kimmel said.
    
"Yeah, everything's been great. Really, really great. And you're good?" Silverman said.

Soon though, the comedic duo got rolling, as Kimmel played a video of Silverman, 37, singing a show tune on a local television special when she was a teenager. That didn't go over well with Silverman, who had to be bleeped over several times.  You can watch it here:

Silverman stars on comedy central on the "Sarah Silverman Program". "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" is on ABC. 
    
Silverman and Kimmel, who dated for five years, also had some fun with tabloid coverage of their breakup, holding up an article that suggested Silverman has a taste for pictures of fat men. But they never said if they are back together.
    
The closest they got to confirming a reunion was when Kimmel said, "Anyone who wants to know what's going on with me and Sarah, all you need to know is this." After that, the two got up and did an intricate hand shake and high-five routine. 
    
Later, when his guest, rapper T.I., asked why Kimmel did not use the occasion of Silverman appearing on his show to propose, Kimmel responded by taking T.I.'s hand and asking, "Will you marry me?"

Reuters Washington staff photographer Jason Reed is traveling with Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Barack Obama through election day November 4. He and his colleague Brian Snyder traveling with the McCain campaign are posting daily photographers blog entries sharing their experiences and favorite pictures of the day from their campaign coverage.

Pumpkins, pumpkins everywhere! It's Halloween on the Obama presidential campaign trail.

One of the quirkiest American traditions I know, which, as a child growing up in Australia I didn't really experience and therefore still find a little hard to understand what it's all about, is Halloween. A custom brought over to the United States in some version by Irish immigrants in the 1800's, Halloween had its origins in a Celtic end-of-harvest festival celebrated by pagans, and in its modern form invokes ghoulish-themed activities such as trick-or-treating, ghost tours and the carving of jack-o'-lanterns from giant pumpkins.
 
Every four years the paths of Halloween traditions and the U.S. Presidential election collide and so it played out once again in front of the cameras Thursday, during our travels with Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama in Florida. Following a campaign rally in Sarasota, Florida, we passed by the United Methodist Church's pumpkin patch and stopped by for Obama to buy a couple of pumpkins.

 
Positioned a few vehicles back in the motorcade behind Obama's car, gathered in a bus were the 'embedded' photographers, journalists and cameramen, plus a smattering of local tv news crews and newspaper writers. The bus door flung open and we all spilled out onto the pavement, rushing like a stampeding herd of elephants over garbage cans and roadside curbs, resembling a Japanese game show where the winner is subjected to a series of punishing and humiliating hurdles in order to win the prize. Our prize today was a prime spot in just the right place to cover the five-minute pumpkin circus.

After a short walk around, trying to lift up what must have been the largest and heaviest pumpkin in the patch and feigning a sore back from the experience, Senator Obama narrowed his choice down to two more modest sized offerings and paid cash for them to the Methodist church volunteer. The proceeds of the pumpkin sale went to help the needy.
 
Once back at the airport, enroute to the next frenzied stop on the campaign tour in Virginia, one of the pumpkins took a flight of its own, thrown up the stairs of the campaign plane by Obama Trip Director Marvin Nicholson to Obama's Special Assistant Reggie Love.
 
Hours later and hundreds of miles away, rounding out what became the theme of the day, Senator Obama took to the stage during a late night election rally in Columbia, Missouri, where the stage was decked out with carved jack-o'-lanterns with a distinctly political theme, spelling out Obama's name and encouraging the American people to vote in the November 4 election.

New research shows that both Antarctica and the Arctic are getting less icy -- and the best explanation is mankind's emissions of greenhouse gases.

But will that convert anyone who doubts that global warming is caused by human activities, led by burning fossil fuels?

The scientists, writing in the journal Nature Geoscience, say that a study of temperature records from Antarctica (there aren't many of them) shows a slight rising trend over recent decades that can be best explained by a build-up of greenhouse gases led by carbon dioxide.

Antarctica had until now been the only continent where a human fingerprint of warming had not been detected by scientists -- that meant some sceptics said it might not be global at all.

Ice around the frozen continent has tended to expand in recent years -- some climate experts have theories to explain that that could be a side-effect of warming linked to shifting ocean currents or changes in snow and rainfall.

But more ice obviously doesn't sound a convincing argument for global warming when a runaway melt of the summer sea ice in the Arctic -- to a record low in September 2007 -- is often held up as Exhibit A in the evidence for climate change.

The U.N. Climate Panel said last year that it was at least 90 percent certain that most of the global warming in the past half century was caused by human activities. Ten percent is room for doubt, but it seems to be shrinking.