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May 31st, 2009

Sharapova shows she is more than a pretty face

Posted by: Julien Pretot

I have never been a big fan of Maria Sharapova's tennis. I prefer fellow Russian Dinara Safina, who I like to nickname 'Marata' (her brother being Marat Safin).

Many men will prefer Sharapova for reasons other than tennis but Safina can be more enjoyable to watch on court, especially when it's clay.

But I have to say I have become fond of Sharapova since Roland Garros started last weekend.

Her commercial approach and the new Tiffany earrings she wears just for the tournament are not to everyone's liking but there is so much more to Sharapova and it's not on www.mariasharapova.com.

She may live in the U.S. but she still has some hard-working Russian blood running through her veins and that's exactly what she has been showing in Paris for a week.

Sharapova, wearing a pretty blue dress, has battled past Anastasiya Yakimova of Belarus, compatriot Nadia Petrova, Kazakh Yaroslava Shvedova and China's Li Na.

Whatever happens in the quarter-finals, her tournament will be a success. Back from a nine-month injury layoff, she discovered what it was like to start a grand slam as world number 102.

Instead of sipping Pina Coladas by the pool listening to Amy Winehouse, she has battled back having undergone shoulder surgery.

She has been digging deep and many will hope she gets her hands on another grand slam. It probably won't be the French Open. She does not have the game for that and Marata is in the way.

But why not SW19?

PHOTO: Maria Sharapova of Russia blows a kiss after winning her match against Li Na of China at the French Open tennis tournament at Roland Garros in Paris May 31, 2009. REUTERS/Charles Platiau

May 31st, 2009

Countdown for U.S. corn; How many will be switched to soy?

Posted by: Christine Stebbins

It's crunch time for corn.

Grain traders are anxiously waiting USDA's weekly crop progress report late Monday as it will tell the story of how U.S. corn was planted this season.

As of May 24, American farmers still had 15 million corn acres of a projected 85 million yet to plant as heavy spring rains in the eastern Corn Belt delayed planting by at least 10 days to two weeks in many areas. Midwest acres seeded after mid-May usually lose more than a bushel a day on yield.

"Analysts are wondering how many of the remaining 15 million acres will be planted to soybeans rather than corn," Mike Woolverton, Kansas State University grain economist, said in his weekly newsletter. 

"The consensus guess is one million acres if it immediately stops raining in the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-south; up to two million acres if it stays wet," he said. 

Midwest farmers are also bumping up against planting deadlines in their crop insurance plans. In Illinois -- the No. 2 corn producer following Iowa and among the eastern Corn Belt states struggling the most -- farmers have until June 5 to decide whether or not they are going to plant corn or cash-in on their insurance. 

Soybeans are also lagging. 

There were some 13 million acres of U.S. soybeans that should be in the ground that were not as of May 24, analysts said. The biggest concern was the amount of unseeded acres in the southern Midwest -- an area that typically produces the first beans of season to relieve old-crop tightness. The good news is that soybeans are a quicker maturing crop so farmers still have some breathing room. Insurance plant dates range from June 15 to June 20 in the Midwest.

But the wettest region of U.S. crop belt is surely the Northern Plains, an area plagued by spring flooding and cool temperatures. North Dakota is particularly wet, which is also the top producer of the high-protein wheat that millers and exporters will pay high premiums for.

"The underlying threat to production from loss of acreage is real. The market is roughly penciling in a half million to three-quarter million acres of spring wheat in the U.S. as lost," said Tim Emslie, analyst for Country Hedging in Minneapolis. 

The bottom line is that these late planting dates will mean tighter supplies of U.S. crops in the coming year, a worry as the United States is the largest food exporter.

Traders expect corn seeding at 93 percent, versus the 5-year average of 98 percent by June 1, and soybeans at 65-75 percent, compared to typical pace of roughly 80 percent. Monday will also be the government's first word on the condition ratings of the just-seeded 2009 corn crop.

May 31st, 2009

Whither new car sales?

Posted by: Felix Salmon

The NYT has an interesting chart showing light-vehicle sales, on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, every month since 1976. The chart would seem to imply that a large uptick in vehicle sales is in the offing. But there's one other chart I would like to see total cars per household (or per person) in the US. Was there a significant increase in cars per household as America suburbanized and moved into bigger homes with bigger garages? And if we've reached a far-too-high number of cars per household, how long will new-car sales have to remain near current levels before we get back down to a "new normal"?

I think that when auto financing becomes broadly available once again, the number of new-car sales is bound to rise. But those new cars might well be smaller and less profitable than the SUVs of the past decade. I suspect that much of the boom in SUV sales was a function of everybody else buying SUVs: it's much more pleasant to drive a small car in Europe, surrounded by other small cars, than it is to drive a small car in the US, surrounded by SUVs which you can't see around and which tower menacingly over you.

What happens to car sales when the getting-bigger trend comes to an end -- as it must -- and starts to reverse course? For one thing, the desire to upgrade to a bigger car starts to dissipate. And if you're not going to upgrade to a bigger car, why buy a new car at all?

May 31st, 2009

Nadal loses at French Open, Ancelotti leaves AC Milan

Posted by: Mark Meadows

It has been quite a day in the world of sport, especially for tired sports journalists.

Rafael Nadal lost to Robin Soderling in the fourth round at the French Open. Yes you read that right. The four-time champion's 31-match winning streak at Roland Garros is over.

Less of a surprise was Carlo Ancelotti saying he was leaving as AC Milan soccer coach, although he refused to confirm he is heading for Chelsea.

To cap a frenetic day, Russia's Denis Menchov won the Giro d'Italia despite falling over only seconds from the line.

I forgot why I love sport so much....

May 31st, 2009

Where should mutual funds invest their repo collateral?

Posted by: Felix Salmon

Jason Zweig is the lastest person to decide that the financial sector should take less risk. After looking at mutual fund practices when it comes to securities lending, he concludes:

Your fund should lend out your securities, but the proceeds should go to you. And fund managers should reinvest the collateral only in absolutely safe securities. The current system, where they keep half the gains and stick you with all the risks, has got to go.

He's right that funds should lend out securities, he's right that the proceeds should go to investors, and he's right that the current system is broken. He's absolutely wrong, however, about the "absolutely safe securities".

Investing in absolutely safe securities is something of an oxymoron: if they're absolutely safe, it's not really investing. Investing is meant to be the means by which capital gets allocated to where it can be most used efficiently. Securities lending is an important part of that process, since without it shorting stocks would be almost impossible, and as a result there would be less liquidity and the price discovery process would be damaged.

Mutual funds are also an important part of the capital-allocation process, since they're actually paid to assess and take risks with investable capital. Consequently, it's ridiculous that a mutual fund -- pretty much the definition of an active risk-taker -- should be shunning all conceivable risk when it comes to investing repo collateral.

The only "absolutely safe securities" are short-dated Treasury bills, and the last thing we need is an institutionalized flight to quality whereby every repo transaction involves an uptick in demand for short-term government debt. After all, we're meant to be getting credit flowing again -- and short-dated credit securities are far less risky than the equities in which most mutual funds are paid to invest. So let's have mutual fund companies taking small and sensible risks with their repo collateral: it'll be much better for all of us.

May 31st, 2009

Football’s heart still beating strong at FA Cup final time

Posted by: Mitch Phillips

Football nostalgia is not what it used to be but there were times on Saturday when the Champions League, 120,000 pounds-a-week contracts and "the business of the game" were forgotten in a return to the days when the FA Cup was the only thing that mattered.

As I walked down Wembley Way towards the stadium, the massed Everton fans out to squeeze every last drop from the day brought back memories of countless other sunny Saturdays in May, when everything stopped for the Cup final.

For generations of fans, players and managers, getting to the final was often the pinnacle of their season if not their lives.

For those not lucky enough or too young to attend there was the consolation of hours of build-up and the rarity of a live TV match, followed by hours of re-enacting it all outside with friends.

The stadium has changed since then but that walk from Wembley central underground station, now shadowed by the arch, rather than the twin towers, remains one that every fan should experience at least once.

It was a well-trodden one for Everton fans in the 1980s as they reached four FA Cup finals and also a League Cup decider but things have been lean since then, with their 1995 victory over Manchester United a rare taste of the big time.

The fans were back at the stadium for the semi-final against United last month, but it is not the same thing at all.

Effort and imagination had gone into the design of Everton's special final T-shirts and banners and there was a terrific atmosphere in and around the ground.

Just as in the semi, Everton's singing and supporting put to shame the followers of the "Big Four", for whom a mere FA Cup final, or especially a semi-final, has become small beer.

Chelsea manager Guus Hiddink said he was brought up loving Cup final day - and he was talking about the FA, not Dutch, competition - and there was no disguising his delight at delivering the trophy to Chelsea after a barren spell since the departure of Jose Mourinho.

Chelsea's fans eventually warmed to the occasion to play their part in an uplifting day and their players, particularly the extraordinary Frank Lampard, gave everything they had in scorching conditions.

At the end, Chelsea's jubilation and Everton's desolation merely reminded us of how important the FA Cup is and underlined the anger and frustration felt by so many when it is treated as something of an inconvenience by so many Premier League managers during the season.

PHOTO: Badges are seen on the shirt of an Everton fan prior to their English FA Cup final against Chelsea at Wembley Stadium in London, May 30, 2009. REUTERS/Darren Staples

May 31st, 2009

Security and settlements

Posted by: Jeffrey Heller

This cartoon, in Israel's best-selling newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, depicting U.S. President Barack Obama and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas throwing darts at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu illustrates what many Israelis see as the outcome of talks Obama held with Netanyahu on May 18 and with Abbas on May 28. Obama was critical of Israel's settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank and supportive of security steps Abbas has taken under a U.S.-funded training programme in the area.

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May 31st, 2009

Hey handsome, what’s your hat size?

Posted by: Robert Basler

Blog Guy, I have a deep-seated fear of zombies. Like I was at a party and I met a nice chick but she had a dazed look and she started asking personal brain-related questions and I got scared.

Brain-related questions?

You know, she was like, "Dude, that's some cranium you got there! How much do you suppose your brain would weigh if it was freshly harvested?" Stuff like that.

Ah. That just sounds like party flirting to me. The real tip-off with zombies is their clothes. They dress in stuff that the living wouldn't put on. What was she wearing?

Her outfit was kind of a turn-on. It was shiny and see-through, like she had draped a set of cheap venetian blinds over her head and finished it off with Christmas tinsel. She gave me her address and invited me to drop by. You think I should go?

Shiny and see-through? Sure, I don't see any harm in one visit.

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A model presents a creation by designer Iris van Herpen of the Netherlands during Kazakhstan Fashion Week in Almaty May 16, 2009. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov

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May 31st, 2009

Where should Perez splash Real cash?

Posted by: Mark Elkington

Florentino Perez is on course for an unopposed return to the Real Madrid presidency on Monday, and is promising to set in motion a major spending spree to build a “spectacular sporting project.”

Speculation on who might be arriving has reached fever pitch in the Madrid-based media, and the architect of the ‘Galacticos’ policy has done everything he can to stoke their enthusiasm, short of naming names.

“We are going to have great players to continue increasing the club’s income in as short a time as possible,” he told sports daily Marca.

“We will go a bit further into debt because I think we have to make up for lost time by doing in one year what should have been done in two or three.”

He told radio station Cadena Ser he expected to make five or six signings.

With a war chest of up to 300 million euros being spoken about in the Spanish media, they have moved quickly to fill in the gaps.

With Arsene Wenger, Carlo Ancelotti and Jose Mourinho slipping off the radar, Villarreal’s Manuel Pellegrini has now emerged as a surprise front runner for the coaching role.

As for players, all the usual names are present. Manchester United’s Cristiano Ronaldo, AC Milan’s Kaka and Bayern Munich’s Franck Ribery top the shopping list, along with Liverpool’s Xabi Alonso, and Valencia trio David Villa, David Silva and Juan Mata.

But where do Real really need strengthening if they are win back the initiative from treble-winners Barcelona, and bring the spectacle back to the Bernabeu?

Iker Casillas will continue between the posts, but Fabio Cannavaro’s departure for Juventus leaves them short of a partner for Pepe in the centre of defence. The injury-prone Christoph Metzelder cannot be relied upon.

Left back has also been a problem position with first-choice Gabriel Heinze struggling.

The area where they have suffered most this year is in midfield, where they have lacked the quality and pace to open up defences in the big games.

Arjen Robben spends too much time on the treatment table, the ageing Guti flickers only intermittently, while Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart, Marcelo and Royston Drenthe have failed to step up when needed.

In attack, Ruud van Nistelrooy missed most of the campaign with a knee injury and will be 33 by the start of next season. Raul will be 32. Gonzalo Higuain and Klaas Jan Huntelaar are not yet finished articles.

Where would you splash the cash?

PHOTO: Perez speaks during the presentation of his presidential candidature for Real Madrid, May 28, REUTERS/Susana Vera

May 31st, 2009

Harvard datapoint of the day

Posted by: Felix Salmon

Richard Bradley reports:

Harvard has already halted the hiring of junior faculty and announced an early retirement program for tenured professors, and for the first time ever is considering laying off tenured professors.

And why might Harvard be laying off tenured professors? Because it's down to its last $25 billion, of course.

Bradley adds a bit to what we know about Harvard's financial mismanagement:

According to the university's 2008 financial report, in the next 10 years it must pay various private investors some $11 billion in capital commitments. Where will that money come from if, as seems likely, endowment growth over those years is minimal or nonexistent, and alumni's own strained budgets limit their generosity?

These are the famous capital calls from Harvard's private-equity investments, which previous HMC managers assumed could be met out of earlier private-equity payouts. Or something. But now -- and for the foreseeable future -- Harvard is facing a massive liquidity crunch:

HMC "took the university right to the edge of the abyss," one alumnus, a financier who is privy to details of the university's balance sheet, told me. I asked what he meant. "Meaning, you're out of cash.

"That," he added, "is the definition of insolvency."

Er no, actually it's the definition of illiquidity, but never mind. The point is that Harvard has run out of liquid assets, and that's going to have huge effects on its institutional psyche -- and possibly even on the job security of tenured professors. My guess is though that no one with tenure will be laid off involuntarily.

And maybe Harvard's alumni might start giving a lot more now than they have in the past. After all, until recently, any giving from alumni was dwarfed by the investment gains of the endowment, and so the incentive to add another drop to the bucket was greatly reduced. Now, by contrast, cash from alumni is desperately needed to meet the university's annual liquidity requirements. It might even feel better, giving money when you know it's going to actually be spent, rather than giving money simply to augment some gargantuan endowment.