One year ago, I asked whether then President-elect Barack Obama's plans for Afghanistan still made sense after the Mumbai attacks torpedoed hopes of a regional settlement involving Pakistan and India. The argument, much touted during Obama's election campaign, was that a peace deal with India would convince Pakistan to turn decisively on Islamist militants, thereby bolstering the United States flagging campaign in Afghanistan.

As I wrote at the time, it had always been an ambitious plan to convince India and Pakistan to put behind them 60 years of bitter struggle over Kashmir as part of a regional solution to many complex problems in Afghanistan.  Had the Mumbai attacks pushed it out of reach? And if so, what was the fall-back plan?

One year on, there is as yet still no sign of a fall-back plan for Afghanistan and the tense relationship between India and Pakistan remains the elusive piece of the jigsaw.

After some attempts at peace-making which culminated in a meeting between the leaders of India and Pakistan in Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt in July, and despite Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's own determination to try to repair relations, the two countries have descended into mutual recrimination.

India accuses Pakistan of failing to take enough action against the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group it blames for Mumbai and which analysts believe is still in a position to launch fresh attacks, and refuses to reopen formal peace talks broken off after the three-day assault. Pakistan has put seven men on trial over the attacks but has refused to arrest the group's founder Hafiz Saeed nor, analysts say, to dismantle the infrastructure of an organisation whose original role was to fight India in Kashmir. It says it wants to resume talks with India.

As a result of the deadlock, both countries remain bitter rivals for influence in Afghanistan; while Pakistan, fighting its own battle against Islamist militants who have turned against the state, is seen as reluctant to move more troops from its eastern border with India to press home a military campaign against the Pakistani Taliban in its tribal areas. India in turn remains vulnerable to another Mumbai-style attack which could trigger Indian retaliation against Pakistan, running a risk of escalation between the two nuclear-armed countries.

"Now India and Pakistan are both playing for broke. Pakistan says it will support a U.S. regional strategy that does not include India, while India is talking about a regional alliance with Iran and Russia that excludes Pakistan. Both positions -- throwbacks to the 1990s, when neighboring states fuelled opposing sides in Afghanistan's civil war -- are non-starters as far as helping the U.S.-NATO alliance bring peace to Afghanistan," writes Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid in the Washington Post.

"To avoid a regional debacle and the Taliban gaining even more ground, Obama needs to fulfil the commitment he made to Afghanistan in March: to send more troops -- so that U.S.-NATO forces and the Afghan government can regain the military initiative -- as well as civilian experts, and more funds for development. He must bring both India and Pakistan on board and help reduce their differences; a regional strategy is necessary for any U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to have a chance. The United States needs to persuade India to be more flexible toward Pakistan while convincing Pakistanis to match such flexibility in a step-by-step process that reduces terrorist groups operating from its soil so that the two archenemies can rebuild a modicum of trust. "

Obama and the U.S. administration are being very careful to avoid being seen as trying to mediate between India and Pakistan -- India is sensitive about outside interference, particularly over Kashmir, which it sees as a bilateral dispute.

But in reality, the United States has been involved in easing tensions in every recent crisis between the two countries -- from the 1999 Kargil war when India and Pakistan fought a brief but intense conflict along the Line of Control dividing the disputed former kingdom of Jammu and Kashmir, to a military standoff in 2001/2002 when close to a million men were mobilised along the border after an attack on the Indian parliament. Following the attack on Mumbai, it was to the United States that India turned to to put pressure on Pakistan to crack down on the Lashkar-e-Taiba. 

Will Obama be able to find a way forward to ease tensions between India and Pakistan, in turn creating a firmer regional foundation to stabilise Afghanistan? Or more precisely, is there a method to his initiatives over the last few months involving not just India and Pakistan, but also China, that in the fullness of time will be seen to be part of an overall strategy to drive a regional bargain that will underpin his plans for Afghanistan?

As discussed in this analysis, the United States faced a difficult balancing act in its relations with India, Pakistan and China.  The financial crisis had made it more economically dependent on China, while its need for support in Afghanistan made it more militarily dependent on Pakistan.

India, which was defeated in a border war with China in 1962, has always been suspicious of Beijing's role as one of Pakistan's closest allies. And since Obama's election it also became wary of what it feared was a U.S. tilt towards China which might undermine burgeoning U.S.-India ties which flourished under his predecessor George W. Bush.

The United States has tried to navigate its way through these competing rivalries by promising aid and support to Pakistan, while also inviting Indian prime minister Singh to make the first state visit of his presidency. During a visit by Obama to China, the two countries promised to work together to promote peace in South Asia. Analysts variously interpreted the pledge as unwarranted interference between India and Pakistan, a detail in a lengthy statement about U.S.-Chinese relations, and a sign that China might encourage Pakistan to crack down on Islamist militants in ways that would also reassure India. (As yet, the jury is still out on which interpretation is correct.)

When Obama unveils his latest plans for Afghanistan next week, we might get some clues as to whether he has used the long delay in announcing his strategy to build regional support for a grand bargain on Afghanistan.  Failing that, we might get an answer to the question I asked a year ago. What is the fall-back plan?

(Photos: The Taj hotel during the Mumbai attacks, the Dal lake in Kashmir; artillery at Drass on the Line of Control; the Obamas ahead of the state dinner for Prime Minister Singh)

Rafael Nadal has electrified men's tennis since bursting on to the scene in 2005 but there are worrying signs that the Spaniard's career may already have peaked.

With six grand slam titles to his name already Nadal has already staked his claim as one of the greats of the game but the aura he used to bring to the court has vanished.

In his first round-robin match at the ATP World Tour Finals in London on Monday he was bullied by Sweden's Robin Soderling, spending virtually the whole match on the run.

It was a similar story on Wednesday against Nikolay Davydenko, with the Spaniard losing his second match in straight sets to leave himself with no chance of making progress.

The match against Soderling was instructive. His shots lacked depth and menace, and were food and drink to his opponent, who had time to set up hisbig forehand and pin Nadal in the corners of the court.

The serve is a worry too -- he is managing very few easy points there -- and then there is the matter of his knees. Only Nadal knows how much the tendonitis that prevented him from defending his Wimbledon title is still bothering him.

So much of Nadal's mystique was built around his physical attributes, his speed and his court coverage. Getting the ball past his racket looked a near impossibility at times as Nadal often seemed twice as big as he actually is.

That intimidatory factor is not there now, however. His movements seems a little less explosive and players with the tools to attack the Spaniard are able to dominate rallies that used to be bread and butter for Nadal.

Better players than Soderling and even Davydenko used to walk on court against Nadal already beaten between the ears. For a while even Roger Federer, the greatest player to wield a racket, seemed to have run out of ideas against him.

Right now, however, Nadal looks vulnerable and he is without a title since May. In Beijing in October he was thrashed in the semi-finals by Marin Cilic and recently in Paris world number three Novak Djokovic proved far too strong.

For the sake of tennis, it has to be hoped that Nadal can recover his spark in time for the defence of his Australian title in January. The men's game would be a poorer product without the swashbuckling Spaniard challenging for grand slam titles.

PHOTO: Rafael Nadal of Spain reacts during his ATP World Tour Finals tennis match against Nikolay Davydenko of Russia in London November 25, 2009. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett

Donny Osmond waltzed off with the mirror ball trophy on Tuesday's finale of "Dancing with the Stars," and while the veteran entertainer is certainly worthy, was he really the best dancer? The judges said it when they told Mya she'd been consistently the best dancer week after week on the highly-rated ballroom contest. Donny, no doubt, was the best showman and performer. And from our couch, Kelly Osbourne was loved by fans. "Kelly" "Kelly" "Kelly" came the audience chants on Tuesday's finale. But it wasn't to be.

We're not taking anything away from Donny, but we note that he's been singing and dancing since he was a kid with the Osmond Brothers. He's had hit records, hit TV shows, hit Broadway shows and hit Las Vegas shows. How hard could "Dancing" have been?

Well, a lot harder than, we admit, we thought. Turns out Donny was dancing on a broken toe! (Read about that here).

We also feel somewhat sorry for sister Marie. It seems she was always second fiddle to her older brother, even when they shared the stage on their old "Donny and Marie" show in the 1970s. She also competed on "Dancing with the Stars" in a previous season, and she finished third. Last night, after Donny held his trophy over his head, hugged his partner Kym Johnson and brought his wife on the ballroom floor, Donny rushed into the audience and dragged Marie out there, too. Donny was No. 1 again. Did he have to rub Marie's face in it?

Maybe we're being a little too hard on the teen heartthrob and "Puppy Love" singer. After all, we do like the fact that he transcended childhood stardom and became a real professional as an adult. Danny Bonaduce, (The Partridge Family) he is definitely not. And Michael Jackson?

Still, he entered the show with a leg up on all the competition, which only makes us wonder, did he deserve it over the others?

(Photo Credit: Adam Larkey; American Broadcasting Companies, Inc.)

At least 15,000 buffalo and "countless" goats and birds were sacrificed in a temple in southern Nepal on Wednesday in a ritual billed as the single biggest animal slaughter on earth.

Hindus in Nepal routinely offer animals for sacrifice to appease deities, especially power goddesses, for good luck and prosperity. But the festival held every five years at the Gadhimai temple in southern Nepal was condemned this year by animal rights activists, including French actress Brigitte Bardot, who called for an end to the centuries-old ritual of slaughtering animals.

"We had more than 15,000 buffalo sacrificed Tuesday. But the number of goats and birds, including roosters and pigeons, sacrificed Wednesday is countless," Shiva Chandra Prasad Kushawaha, chief of the festival's organizing committee said.

Read the whole story here.

(Photo: Mass sacrifice of buffaloes at Bara District, 24 Nov 2009/Shruti Shrestha)

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Why You Should Support The Lynch Amendment: Don't let banks own more than 20% of derivatives exchanges! -- Rortybomb

A very sad day for the financial blogosphere: the invaluable John Jansen is giving up his blog to move to the sell side -- Across the Curve

Hedge fund prospectus says its "Directors will not receive, open, or deal directly with mail addressed to the Fund" -- Risk Without Reward

Don't forget! $50 feeds 8 tomorrow -- Robin Hood

The real connection between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sarah Palin -- Sorensen

Debunking the paradox of choice -- FT

Pareene unloads on Lou Dobbs. Totally deserved -- Gawker

The behavioral economics of Thanksgiving -- Bloggingheads

Claims of Thanksgiving Excess Fueled by Feast of Fuzzy Data -- WSJ

Greatest Fox News pie chart ever -- Fox

John Carney is right: a very large number of Americans is always going to be financially illiterate, and there's nothing we can do about it. Indeed, if we try too hard to do something about improving financial literacy, there's a good chance we'll only end up creating a new cohort of overconfident financial illiterates who think they understand things when they don't.

This is why we need a Consumer Financial Protection Agency: to make sure that people buying financial products don't end up buying something that's going to end up exploding in their face. As Elizabeth Warren so frequently says, we do it for toasters, we should be able to do it for mortgages and toasters and annuities. There's a decent case to be made that we can and should give a decent financial education to people starting up small businesses. But there's not much empirical evidence that it works for people more generally.

(Via Konczal)

We are still undoing the damaging from CBall's 1-5 week and a 2-4 fumble by the Lineman in Week 10 but 5-1 last week has the team back on track.

This is gut check time for a number of teams who could see their post-season hopes hinge on the  outcome of this week's results.

One of those teams is our Pick of the Week.

Record: 36-30. Last week 5-1

Pick of the Week: 6-5

PICK OF THE WEEK: Green Bay Packers (6-4) at Detroit Lions (2-8) (Line Packers minus 10 1/2) This game usually fits right in with the Thanksgiving holiday with the Lions serving up a turkey the last five years. The Lions have been so bad, in fact, that there have been cries to have this contest moved. The last five Thanksgivings the Lions have been hammered by 37, 11, 17, 20, and 32 points.

The Lions come into the game riding the momentum of a wildly entertaining 38-37 win over the Cleveland Browns in the Bad Bowl but paid a hefty price.

Detroit rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw five touchdowns in the win over the Browns, is doubtful with a sore shoulder and wide receiver Calvin Johnson is battling knee and hand injuries.

The Packers are also struggling with injuries after defensive stalwarts linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris went down with season ending injuries during Sunday's 30-24 win over San Francisco.

The Lions defence has its own problems allowing a league high 30 points a game and their pass defence is also the NFL's worst.

That will have Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' mouth watering, as he picks over a Lions secondary like Thanksgiving Day leftovers.

The Packers attack has been on a roll, Rodgers finding a way to get the job done despite being sacked a league high 43 times.

The short week will not benefit either team as the Packers throw together a makeshift defence and the Lions hand QB duties to backup Daunte Culpepper.

But the Packers are in the thick of a tight wildcard race and will not let this one slip away like they did in Tampa Bay .

Lions get stuffed, Packers count their blessings they are in Detroit this week instead of Dallas.

Take the Packers give up the 10 1/2.

Sunday's picks to follow on Friday.

PHOTO: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers celebrates with fans in the north end zone after scoring a touchdown on a one-yard run against the Dallas Cowboys in the forth quarter of the Packers 17-7 win over the Cowboys in a NFL football game at Lambeau Field Green Bay, Wisconsin November 15, 2009. REUTERS/Allen Fredrickson

This chart (via Paul) I think is too meek: of course the current emerging-markets boom is debt-financed. And boy does it look bubblicious, what with the Bovespa having doubled in the past 12 months and rapidly approaching its all-time high. I'm a believer in the long-term future of Brazil, and even count a Brazilian ETF among my few investments. But at this point any investment in emerging markets looks very much like a speculative momentum play: don't invest anything you can't afford to lose.

(Photo: Protest against clergy sex abuse at the Catholic cathedral in Sydney, 18 July 2008/Tim Wimborne)

The following is a guest contribution. Reuters is not responsible for the content and the views expressed are the authors’ alone. Elizabeth E. Evans is an American freelance journalist living in Glenmoore, Pennsylvania who writes about religion.

By Elizabeth E. Evans

Two large scale American studies of clergy gone off the rails raise a host of troubling and baffling questions, not solely about clergy sexual misconduct, but about how and why parishioners either tolerate or ignore signals that something is wrong. One sad but perhaps inescapable conclusion from them is that it may be time to start taking a more skeptical look at those who exercise power in our congregations.

This fall, Baylor University's School of Social Work released the results of a national study of clergy sexual misconduct with adults. Roughly three percent of adult women who attend religious services at least once a month have been the target of inappropriate sexual behavior by pastors, researchers found . That's a startling number. But even more eye-popping were the number of congregants -- eight percent -- who knew about clergy sexual misconduct in their faith community.

(Photo: Diana Garland/Baylor)

The respect Americans institutions give to the separation of church and state makes misconduct seem like a private matter, Baylor Social Work School Dean Diana Garland told me in a telephone interview. But the power faith communities give to their clergy makes it a public one.

Clergy sexual misconduct doesn't solely damage its primary victims, she commented.  It also hurts spouses, children - and congregants. In such a situation, "congregations split" she said. "Some congregants come to the defense of leaders, assuming that the woman caused leaders to fall."

The reason parishioners may ignore signals that a clergyperson is misbehaving cut to the heart of that relationship. "We ignore the warning signs...because we haven't had a cognitive category to deal with it," said Garland. "It's not just an affair; it's an abuse of power."

Other factors? Parishioners tend to participate in a congregational culture of "niceness." Communication used to be very public, but it is now a lot easier to correspond or talk in private, creating situations that can build intimacy until sexual boundaries are crossed.  Clergy don't always have oversight from judicatory or congregational leaders.  And clergy often function in multiple roles as spiritual leader, counselor and friend.

(Photo: Protesters against Catholic clergy sex abuse scandal in Boston, 13 May 2002/Jim Bourg)

"Most pastors are not equipped to do counseling," she said. "The role of a leader who exhorts and challenges people is very different from that of a psychotherapist who meets in a contractual way to resolve a life crisis."

Lastly, and perhaps most tragically, congregants expect that their faith community is truly a sanctuary, a safe place in which they can let down their guard. That trust has been violated again and again. "Maybe we need to recognize the humanity of our religious leaders, taking it, as well as their calling, seriously," said Garland.

Garland would like to see denominations adopt model ethical codes that lay leaders in congregations could adopt for their own use.  Giving parishioners language to identify misbehavior as "misconduct" rather than a consensual affair would be a step forward. Bible studies focused on the concept of power use and abuse in church and society might be helpful, the Baylor report suggests.  Researchers also suggest a way out of the church-state dilemma by proposing model legislation (which currently only exists in two states) defining sexual contact with congregants as illegal, not just immoral.

Perhaps it's time to put aside the assumption that our religious leaders can function as role models because they are, by definition, closer to God. It is possible that, under these circumstances, the best remedy may be a very secular on, increased oversight by higher-ups and vigilance on the part of congregants.

(Photo: Cardinal Bernard Law after resigning as Boston's Catholic archbishop amid charges of  hushing up sexual abuse of children by his priests, 16 Dec 2002/Brian Snyder)

American Catholic bishops recently got an update on an ongoing study of decades of sexual abuse of children in the Roman Catholic Church. The John Jay College of Criminal Justice study has come up with some provocative findings.   Politicsdaily.com columnist David Gibson quoted researcher Margaret Smith: "We have not found that the problem [the sexual abuse of minors] is particular to the church," Smith told the bishops. "We have found it to be similar to the problem in society."

Researchers also suggested that eventually efforts to impose boundaries and deal with abusive clergy paid off, which is a sign of hope in a rather bleak landscape. Bishops became more enlightened on the subject and adopted a much tougher policy. Seminarians were screened more effectively.  And parishioners and society in general became more aware of the terrible effect of sexual abuse on children.

The John Jay research also suggests that most of the offenders were not clinical pedophiles, but also exhibited a variety of other unhealthy behaviors.

Is it possible that there is something in the culture of congregations that allows such abuse to begin and to continue?  Garland and her team have provided a way to begin asking that and other questions.

(Photo: Defrocked Catholic priest Paul Shanley in Boston court, 15 Feb 2005/Charles Krupa)

In the meantime, maybe parishioners need to take off their stained-glass lenses when they step into a place of worship, holding their leaders accountable to the same standards applied in secular organizations.

There will be times, hopefully rare, when they don't like what they see and have to figure out what they are going to do about it. But their place of worship will be a much healthier and safer place, if laypeople stop operating with blind faith that Father (or Mother, Rabbi or Imam) always knows best.

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Normally double-digit sales declines don't cheer investors.

But shares of jewelry chain Tiffany & Co rose 4 percent on Wednesday even though it reported that sales at its U.S. stores open for at least a year ("same-store-sales" in industry parlance) fell 10 percent in the third quarter. 

True, much of the hemorrhaging seems to have subsided since last year's gruesome holiday fourth quarter when U.S. same-store sales fell 33 percent, and November is off to a promising start.

Seems that wealthy Asians and Europeans -- in Asia outside Japan, overall sales rose 18 percent while European sales were up 10.5 percent in the quarter -- are picking up the slack from rich Americans who seem to be curbing their shopping until the Dow Jones Index is more to their liking... like say 14,000. And analysts were encouraged that the jeweler is aggressively expanding overseas.

Tiffany is so bullish on China in particular that it is planning to triple the number of its stores on the mainland within 5 years. Outside China, the chain is also expanding. It is opening a second store at London's Heathrow Airport next month and has opened new stores in Amsterdam, a Melbourne suburb, Toronto and Hong Kong this year.

While the affluent U.S. baubles buyer will eventually return, Tiffany is playing it smart by leveraging its strong brand and international footprint to get through the storm, analysts told Reuters.

(PHOTO: Reuters)