Asked whether growth in emerging economies would be enough to compensate for slowing in the U.S., he said: "No."

Fabbri pointed out that emerging economies accounted for only about 25 percent of global growth and would not be sufficient to take up the slack in the sagging U.S. economy.

"Contrary to some people's thinking at the start of the recession who thought there would be a decoupling of the U.S. from other economies like China that has not been the case," the economist said.

So while infrastructure spending in countries like China might lift metals demand, its growth pace will be limited without the support of robust industrial and economic output in developed countries.

Furthermore, while China, India and Brazil may continue to grow during the current global recession, he noted that not all emerging markets are alike, citing faltering economies in Eastern Europe and parts of South America as examples.

 Global miner Rio Tinto said it had an excellent relationship with Chinalco, despite a decision to scrap a proposed $19.5 billion tie up with the Chinese firm on Friday.
    The failed link up between China's Chinalco and Rio Tinto in Australia was thought by many observers to be at least partly due to shareholders' fears that Chinalco was trying to increase its leverage in iron ore deals with Rio.
    Now that the tables have turned, and Rio announced a proposed iron ore joint venture with BHP Billiton in Western Australia the Aussies could get the upper hand in determining prices in negotiations with Chinese steel makers, analysts said.
    If the deal goes through, Damien Ma, political risk analyst for Eurasia Group said BHP and Rio would supply roughly 3/4 of China's iron ore. "That's enormous."
    The deal comes amid very contentious iron ore negotitions with the price down sharply in the last six months.
    The Australians' proximity to China, and therefore greatly lower freight costs, and the significant operating cost reductions from the planned joint venture would certainly give Brazil's VALE, the world's largest iron ore producer, "some competitive issues," as one analyst put it.
    If Rio and BHP  are able to meaningfully reduce their operating costs at a time when they are already competitively advantaged by the proximity to China and the rest of Asia, analysts said it could force VALE to lower their iron ore prices to remain competitive.

Source: Alcoa

Both Alcoa, as the world's largest aluminum producer, and China, producing more than 13 million tonnes in 2008, have idled substantial percentages of their output.

Russia, however, with about 4.2 million annual tonnes of capacity, has not curtailed any production, said Kleinfeld.

He said he thought political factors centered around maintaining employment levels have kept Russian smelters running.

"Many of the smelters are in regions where there is nothing else, in very remote areas, and are an anchor for the area. When Springtime comes and there are new opportunities to shift (workers) into, farming or construction, it will probably be  easier to cut production there," he said.

As for Alcoa's own operations there, he said Russia had been affected by the economic slump more than they or Alcoa had thought last November.

"But what we're seeing now, is that Russia is starting to stabilize and seems to be starting to come out of it," he said.

Technical analysts at RBC Capital Markets referred to current metal action as "jobbers markets and not trends," warning bulls "to beware of getting married to their positions in these choppy and uncertain times." Others chartists said they were looking for confirmation of the price rally from demand indicators and would not recommend buying metals until the had clearly turned bullish.

The only analyst I spoke with willing to set specific upside targets was Barclays Capital technical strategist MacNeil Curry. He thinks London Metal Exchange copper can reach $4,300 to $4,500 a tonne, with possible scope above $5,000 a tonne. Specifically, Curry said he sees initial targets at $4,366 to $4,547 a tonne. He called short-term support at a trendline and recent low of $3,725 and $3,671. A move below that area would signal a bigger decline than previously forecast.

While LME aluminum has come off a two-month peak, it was trading in a new higher range above $1,400 a tonne. Curry said, "the path of least resistance is still clearly higher given the bullish divergences and weekly momentum indicators and given the strength in other commodity metals."

A definitive break above that level would add to evidence that aluminum had completed an eight-month downtrend, the Barclays analyst said.

Curry sees zinc, currently trading at $1,280 a tonne, getting dragged higher. But it would need to break above January 7 high at $1,365 to really take off. A breakout puts in sight the 200-day moving average at $1,445 a tonne.

"I think it's going higher with copper, but it may take awhile," he said.

Investors had their eyes keenly trained on New York copper's $1.50 per lb. level before it broke down last week. On the COMEX exchange, copper teetered above the psychological $1.50 threshold before diving through on Thursday, triggering stop-loss sell orders on the way down. Then on Friday,  shockingly dismal U.S. jobs data shoved copper down to $1.3560 a lb, its lowest point since February 2005.
Copper had at that point lost two-thirds of its value off its record high set in July.
Investors saw March copper as oversold and sent it back above $1.50 on Monday. But some technical analysts caution against celebrating the upswing too soon. They viewed Monday's advance as a bear market rally and a short-selling opportunity.  "It may be an opportunity to sell short, because the trend is down. It's certainly overdone, but it had fallen to a significant downside target," said technical analyst Hans Kashyap, president of Analytics Research Corp in California.
Some participants took advantage of the gains and grabbed short-term profits on Tuesday.
Looking at a monthly chart and using basic technical analysis, Kashyap projected copper's downside objective in the $1.40 to $1.35 a lb area, precisely where it stopped on Friday.
To find that target, he took a measurement off the 2006 high at $3.99 a lb down to 2007's low at $2.3980. He explained that for the last two years copper had made several attempts at the $4.0 level, actually flitting above it several times. But the $4.0 resistance level failed repeatedly to definitively give way, despite numerous forecasts earlier this year for $5 or $6 copper.
Though the $1.35 downside target has held since Friday, Kashyap said he would need to see a protracted period above that band to think a bottom had been established.
To think copper had turned a corner, Kashyap said he would need to see it hold above the $1.40 to $1.35 area for several weeks. Though a brief break beneath $1.35 would not be significant.
"To have any confidence in the upside, I would need to see at least a couple of weeks basing and holding that area and then pushing through the next step at the $1.77 area."
If $1.35 support breaks, and if the current economic downturn persists that may well happen, Kashyap's next projected downside target lies at $1.0660.
"We could get down to that swing low. But that would be a worst case scenario."