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from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

View from the ranch

This morning, the Macro Cowboy rode into the forum, complete with Stetson and stylish boots, to give us his take on the global economy. And the view from his cozy ranch isn’t too shabby at all. “There is enough momentum in the economy for the rally to resume,” the Cowboy said, adding that “the low interest-rate setting looks here to stay and components of demand, most particularly investment, still have a way to catch up.”

The Cowboy is upbeat about the U.S. economy and said the country’s balance sheets have improved and the policy setting – both monetary and fiscal – remain supportive. “I’m looking for business investment to kick in at some point - it is long overdue. A bit more impetus from wages/labour compensation would be handy as well,” he said.

On the well-worn rate-hike debate in the U.S., he predicted no rate hikes coming in the foreseeable future.  “Where there has been a twist in the language, it is to do with the risk factors around it...not on the baseline view,” he added.

Another hot topic right now is emerging markets. After a tough few weeks earlier this year, the EMs are now slowly coming back to life, but they’re not on a one-way track to another bull market it seems. “I see a more volatile period ahead. It's all rather easy when the quantitative easing taps are flowing” the Cowboy said, adding that “you only need to look at communications from the likes of the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Indonesia to see the prominence of its role. But underlying imbalances are still very much there and once at advanced rates do start rising and focus shifts from the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering to the possibility of the Bank of Japan following suit another taper tantrum looks very much in store.” Indeed, the Bank of England warned earlier that not all investment funds are as liquid as they might appear at first glance and those exposed to emerging markets or high-yield debt were particularly at risk of being unable to return investors’ cash speedily in the event of another period of turmoil.  With the current lack of volatility across most markets at the moment, one can only hope that this is not a calm before a storm.

from Breakingviews:

London real estate at an inflection point

By George Hay

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Most real estate valuers in London think property prices in the UK capital are about to fall. That prediction has been easy to make and easier to get wrong in the last five years. This time, the evidence that global investors’ favourite housing market has peaked is looking credible.

from Mark Jones:

If at first you don’t succeed in Iraq, Surge, Surge again http://t.co/OuriWg4P0K

If at first you don’t succeed in Iraq, Surge, Surge again http://t.co/OuriWg4P0K

from Ian Bremmer:

World Cup chants reveal true state of U.S.-German relations

 Germany's national soccer players acknowledge their fans after their win over the U.S. at the end of their 2014 World Cup Group G soccer match at the Pernambuco arena in Recife

As Germany basks in its World Cup victory, it’s easy to forget that one of the most telling geopolitical moments of the tournament came during the Germany-U.S. game. As American fans chanted “U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!” the Germans countered with, “N-S-A! N-S-A! N-S-A!”

In the weeks since, relations have crumbled. After it learned that a German intelligence officer allegedly spied for the United States, Germany expelled the CIA station chief in Berlin -- a rare move by a close American ally.

from Mark Jones:

Turns out that @breakingviews won the (predictions) #worldcup: http://t.co/FR4GuF7jz0

Turns out that @breakingviews won the (predictions) #worldcup: http://t.co/FR4GuF7jz0

from Breakingviews:

Asia’s solid exterior hides internal weakness

By Andy Mukherjee 

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Asian economies are becoming more resilient externally, but sputtering economic growth is weakening them from within.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Momentum gathers for stronger US dollar , GBP and crude oil

Richard Sexton, Senior Technical Analyst, IFR joined us again for our weekly LiveChat where he shared with us his special brand of technical analysis and insight from his days as a proprietary trader.

AUD, JPY, NZD, metals and EUR all look set to weaken, creating broad based support for the US dollar. GBP, CAD and crude oil are expected to buck the trend.

from MacroScope:

Sanctions tighten

Britain's PM Cameron, Portugal's PM Passos Coelho, Germany's Chancellor Merkel and Finland's PM Stubb attend an EU leaders summit in Brussels

EU leaders failed to get anywhere on sharing out the top jobs in Brussels last night but did manage another round of sanctions against Russia.

This time they will target Russian companies that help destabilize Ukraine and will ask the EU's bank, the European Investment Bank, to suspend new lending for Russia and seek a halt to new lending to Russia by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

from Mark Jones:

Sanctions tighten http://t.co/IdfCBtSeIQ

Sanctions tighten http://t.co/IdfCBtSeIQ

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