Reuters blog archive

from Expert Zone:

India market weekahead – Partial profit-booking may be prudent before election results

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The so-called "rally of hope" stuttered during the week as Indian markets turned volatile. The Nifty closed at 6695, down 1.30 percent. The fear of the El Nino effect and the IMD forecast of below-normal rainfall seems to have made investors cautious.

With election results two weeks away, investors need to take a stand in the next few days. Although there can be a number of outcomes, only two would be termed positive for the markets - a landslide victory or a comfortable majority to form a stable government. The other scenarios such as a fractured mandate, a third front coalition or a weak UPA or NDA coalition would deflate the sentiment built up till date as the markets have already discounted a favourable outcome.

A broker monitors a screen displaying live stock quotes on the floor of a trading firm in MumbaiIn case of a coalition getting a majority, we could see the markets getting into a short-term state of euphoria as the new government would be seen as a messiah. On the other hand, expectations would be the biggest hazard for the new government as any slip would not be overlooked.

Among the challenges for the new government, the failure of monsoon rains could be the biggest one - which could deflect its attention and resources, besides having a negative effect on growth prospects. After the initial days of bonhomie, serious investors would start getting down to brass tacks. Every action and communication would be scrutinized to check whether the delivery is as per promises made during the election.

from The Great Debate:

Why the Obamacare fight never ends

“I know every American isn't going to agree with this law,” President Barack Obama said about the Affordable Care Act at his April 17 news briefing, “but I think we can agree that it's well past time to move on.”

The Republican response? Same as General Anthony McAuliffe's reply when the German army demanded that U.S. forces surrender at the Battle of the Bulge during World War Two: “Nuts!”

from The Great Debate:

2014: Another election about Obamacare

Here we go again.

2014 will be the third election in a row in which Obamacare is the central issue. The Affordable Care Act, which President Barack Obama signed into law in March 2010, contributed to a fierce voter backlash against Democrats in November 2010. After the Supreme Court upheld the law in June 2012, the issue seemed to be settled by Obama's re-election that November.

But no.

The botched Obamacare rollout this year has again thrust the issue to the top of the political agenda. Republicans are counting on opposition to Obamacare to propel them to a majority in the Senate next year. A conservative group is already running an ad attacking Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) for supporting Obamacare: “Next November, if you like your senator, you can keep her. If you don't, you know what to do.”

from Expert Zone:

Time to ride the rally in the run-up to 2014 elections

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Election fever in the world’s biggest democracy is gripping India in the run-up to general elections due in 2014. In the coming months, politics will be in focus especially among investors.

Assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were a prelude to next year's election. The four states make up 72 seats in the Lok Sabha. Historical data suggests the electorate votes on the same lines for the Lok Sabha in case state polls are held within 12 months of the general elections.

from India Insight:

Interview: Modi’s bubble will burst before 2014 elections – Kapil Sibal

By John Chalmers and Devidutta Tripathy

(This article is website-exclusive and cannot be reproduced without permission)

Telecommunications and Law Minister Kapil Sibal, a senior Congress party leader, spoke to Reuters in an interview at his office in New Delhi. Here are edited excerpts:

What do you think of the impressive rise of Narendra Modi?
I don't know about both the qualitative expression ‘impressive’ and the word ‘rise’. Because normally, the law of nature is that he who rises falls. And the quicker he rises, the quicker he falls. So, I don't know how the laws of nature are going to work as far as Narendra Modi is concerned. I do believe that a lot of this, a lot of this, is hype and it’s based on a private army being employed by Narendra Modi to disturb the cyberspace in his favour. And we'll see if he moves forward at all or not. Because at some time or the other, as you know all bubbles burst, that's again the law of nature. This bubble too will burst.