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from Photographers Blog:
My memories of a dictator
Buenos Aires, Argentina
By Marcos Brindicci
Former Argentine dictator Jorge Rafael Videla died on May 17 at the age of 87 inside his cell in a prison near Buenos Aires, where he was serving a life sentence for crimes against humanity. He was the first President and most emblematic figure of the military junta that ruled Argentina from 1976 to 1983, during the so-called "Dirty War" years. Human rights organizations claim that around 30,000 people disappeared during those years, and Videla never repented about the kidnappings and murders ordered by the state.
His death of old age got me thinking about one of my first memories of him, and also, one of my last ones.
When I was about five years old my mother took me to Iguazu Falls for a winter vacation and we ended up staying at the same hotel where Videla, as president, was staying. I was running all around the hotel and, at one point, I was stopped by members of his guard and led back downstairs. My mother later told me what was going on and that Videla was the guy I had seen on TV. It is a candid memory of someone I learned to loathe for what he had done and what he represented, as most Argentines do.
That former army commander was sentenced to life in prison in 1985 for human rights abuses under his rule, but was pardoned in 1990 by then-President Carlos Menem. Some years later, when I became a photojournalist and more Dirty War cases were opened in Argentina, I got a few chances to take pictures of him, usually through the window of a car as he arrived at a courthouse or from a distance as he was led out of it.
from Felix Salmon:
When the cost of sovereign default plunges
CMA is out with its quarterly Global Sovereign Debt Credit Risk Report, which includes this league table:
CPD stands for cumulative probability of default, which means that according to the market, Argentina has an 84.5% chance of defaulting at some point in the next five years. Calculating these probabilities is more art than science: Thomson Reuters puts the 5-year default probability at 71%, but both TR and S&P agree that the one-year default probability is about 50%.
from Global Investing:
A Plan B for Argentina
What's Argentina's Plan B?
President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has said she will sell the presidential palace in Buenos Aires, if need be, to keep paying creditors who agreed to restructure the country's debts. But it may not come to that. Warning: this is a complicated saga with very interesting twists.
A pair of hedge fund litigants demanding $1.3 billion in payments and a New York court are making it hard for Kirchner to keep paying international bondholders. But she might contemplate asking those existing creditors to swap into Argentine law bonds, to which the writ of the New York court will not extend.
from Felix Salmon:
Argentina’s desperate exchange proposal
Argentina has done as the Second Circuit Court of Appeals ordered, and has now formally put forward its proposal for paying off Elliott Associates and the other bondholders suing it in New York court.
You could be excused for not entirely understanding what Argentina is proposing, in this 22-page filing: it's not particularly easy to understand. But the upshot is simple, and pretty much as everybody expected: Argentina is offering to give Elliott pretty much exactly the same deal as it gave all the other holders of its defaulted bonds. In practice, that means that Elliott would swap into new Discount bonds with a present market value of roughly $120 million; if settling the case in that way helped Argentina's bonds to rally back to where they were trading in October, then the market value would rise to about $176 million.
from Photographers Blog:
Our hometown Pope
Buenos Aires, Argentina
By Enrique Marcarian
Used to covering news with headlines like hyper-inflation, devaluation, coup d'etat, protest, bond default, election, poverty, earthquake, and even papal visit, I never imagined what it would be like to cover the papal conclave in the new Pope's country of origin. What made it even more baffling was the fact that the winner was someone we never dreamed it would be.
The day the conclave began was one when all the elements around me seemed to confirm that there was no chance of an Argentine Pope. I went to the Metropolitan Cathedral to take pictures of the optimistic worshippers, and found just one nun praying in a nearly empty church.
from Photographers Blog:
Falkland Islanders take on an Argentine Pope
By Marcos Brindicci
Port Stanley, Falkland Islands
Czech journalist Jeri Hasek appeared in the hotel lobby saying to some of us Argentines, "You have a Pope! An Argentine Pope!"
The truth is, here in the Falkland Islands some swearing was heard after the news. I have to admit that, no matter what your opinion on the church and religious matters are, it is kind of exciting to learn that someone from your country gets to be Pope. But as an Argentine, I know this will boost our ego, and that can't be good.
from Photographers Blog:
YES
Port Stanley, Falkland Islands
By Marcos Brindicci
YES.
That's the word in the Falkland Islands these days.
Islanders held a referendum to stay under British rule and almost unanimously (98.8 percent) voted YES, with 92 percent of voter attendance. YES was also the first picture I took upon arriving in Port Stanley, the word formed with vehicles up on a hillside.
I first came to the Islands exactly one year ago, but the feeling now is different. It feels like the word YES is also in the spirit of its residents, as they seem much more positive towards foreigners and Argentines in general; I get the sense that they separate Argentine people from the Argentine government's position.
from Ian Bremmer:
The top 10 grudges in the G-20
The G-20 is no happy family. Comprised of 19 countries and the European Union, once the urgency of the financial crisis waned, so too did the level of collaboration among members. Unlike the cozier G-7 -- filled with likeminded nations -- the G-20 is a better representation of the true global balance of power … and the tensions therein. So where are the deepest fault lines in the G-20?
Below is a ranking* of the 10 worst bilateral relationships in the G20. Russia is in four of the worst, while China is in three (although Russia and China’s relationship is fine). Several countries are also in two of the worst relationships: the United States (with the two belligerents mentioned above), Japan, the UK and the EU.
from Felix Salmon:
Elliott vs Argentina: The Second Circuit’s dangerous game
On Friday, the Second Circuit court of appeals issued an order, aimed at Argentina. The order is worth quoting in full, because it helps to explain the reasoning by which the Second Circuit is going to end up pushing Argentina into default:
At oral argument on Wednesday, February 27, 2013, counsel for the Republic of Argentina appeared to propose that, in lieu of the ratable payment formula ordered by the district court in its injunction and accompanying opinion of November 21, 2012, Argentina was prepared to abide by a different formula for repaying debt owed on both the original and exchange bonds at issue in this litigation. Because neither the parameters of Argentina’s proposal nor its commitment to abide by it is clear from the record, it is hereby ordered that, on or before March 29, 2013, Argentina submit in writing to the court the precise terms of any alternative payment formula and schedule to which it is prepared to commit.
from Felix Salmon:
Why Argentina will default in 2013
Some countries default on their performing debt because they no longer have the ability to pay it. Other countries default on their performing debt because they no longer have the willingness to pay it. Argentina has been in both situations: something of a serial defaulter, it defaulted on or restructured its obligations in 1828, 1890, 1982, 1989, 2001, and 2005.
And it's going to default once again in 2013.
This time, however, is a little bit different. Argentina has both the willingness and the ability to pay its performing debt. It's adamant, however, that it's not going to pay $1.4 billion to Elliott Associates, a hedge fund which has been prosecuting a highly-aggressive litigation strategy against the country, based on the fact that it holds defaulted debt and refused to exchange that debt for performing bonds. Depending on where you sit, Argentina's refusal to pay off Elliott is either noble or foolish. But after two and a half hours of highly contentious oral testimony in federal appeals court today, it's pretty clear that the US courts aren't going to allow Argentina to stay current on its performing debt -- not unless the country also writes a ten-figure check to Elliott. Which means that we're headed straight for default, with almost no realistic chance of avoiding it.
