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from Global Investing:
Emerging European bonds: The music plays on
There seems to be no end to the rip-roaring bond rally across emerging Europe. Yields on Turkish lira bonds fell to fresh record lows today after an interest rate cut and stand now more than a whole percentage point below where they started the year.
True, bonds from all classes of emerging market have benefited from the flood of money flowing from central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan, with over$20 billion flowing into EM debt funds since the start of 2013, according to EPFR Global. Flows for the first three months of 2013 equated to 12 percent of the funds' assets under management.
But the effect has been most marked in emerging European local currency bonds -- unsurprising, given economic growth here is weakest of all emerging markets and central banks have been the most pro-active in slashing interest rates. Emerging European yields have fallen around 50 basis points since the start of the year, compared to a 20 bps average yield fall on the broader JPMorgan index of emerging local bonds, Thomson Reuters data shows.
The IMF today advised Poland to continue cutting rates "without delay" to boost the economy. That should give another leg-up to zloty bonds, where short-dated yields are already at record lows.
from Global Investing:
Will gold’s glitter dim in India?
Indians have reacted to the latest gold prices falls by --- buying more gold. And why not? Aside from Indians' well known passion for the yellow metal (yours truly not excluded) gold has by and large served well as an investment: annual returns over the past five years have been around 17 percent, Morgan Stanley notes.
Now, gold's near 20 percent plunge this year has wiped some $300 billion off Indians' gold holdings, Morgan Stanley estimates in a note (households are believed to own about 15,000 metric tonnes of gold). So is the gold rush in India over?
from Global Investing:
India’s deficit — not just about oil and gold
India's finance minister P Chidambaram can be forgiven for feeling cheerful. After all, prices for oil and gold, the two biggest constituents of his country's import bill, have tumbled sharply this week. If sustained, these developments might significantly ease India's current account deficit headache -- possibly to the tune of $20 billion a year.
Chidambaram said yesterday he expects the deficit to halve in a year or two from last year's 5 percent level. Markets are celebrating too -- the Indian rupee, stocks and bonds have all rallied this week.
from Global Investing:
Russian companies next stop for Euroclear
The excitement continues over Russian assets becoming Euroclearable. Euroclear's head confirmed last week to journalists in Moscow that corporate debt would be the next step, potentially becoming eligible for settlement within a month. Russian equities are set to follow from July 1, 2014.
What that means is foreign investors buying Russian domestic rouble bonds will be able to process them through the Belgium-based clearing house, which transfers securities from the seller’s securities account to the securities account of the buyer, while transferring cash from the account of the buyer to the account of the seller.
from Global Investing:
U.S. Treasury headwinds for emerging debt
Emerging bond issuance and inflows have had a strong start to the year but can it last?
Data from JPMorgan shows that emerging market sovereigns sold hard currency bonds worth $9.6 billion last month while companies raised $51.2 billion (that compares with Jan 2012 issuance levels of $17.5 billion for sovereigns and $23.9 billion for corporates). Similarly, inflows into EM debt were well over $10 billion last month, very probably topping the previous monthly record, according to JPM.
from Global Investing:
Indian markets and the promise of reform
What a difference a few months have made for Indian markets.
The rupee is 8 percent up from last summer's record lows. Foreigners have ploughed $17 billion into Indian stocks and bonds since Sept 2012 and foreign ownership of Indian shares is at a record high 22.7 percent, Morgan Stanley reckons. And all it has taken to change the mood has been the announcement of a few reforms (allowing foreign direct investment into retail, some fuel and rail price hikes and raising FDI limits in some sectors). A controversial double taxation law has been pushed back. The government has sold some stakes in state-run companies (it offloaded 10 percent of Oil India last week, netting $585 million). If the measures continue, the central bank may cut interest rates further.
Above all, there have been promises-a-plenty on fiscal consolidation.
The promises are not new. Only this time, investors appear to believe Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.
from Global Investing:
Rupiah decline – don’t worry
Indonesia has just given the go-ahead for another leg down in the rupiah. It has cut its forecasts for the exchange rate to 9,700 per dollar compared to the 9,200 level at which the central bank used to step in. The currency has duly weakened and nervous foreigners have rushed to hedge exposure -- 3-month NDFs price the rupiah at almost 10,000 to the dollar. The rupiah last week hit a three-year low, its weakness coming on top of a dismal 2012 which saw it fall 6 percent as the current account deficit worsened. Traders in Jakarta are reporting dollar hoarding by exporters.
All that is spooking foreigners who own more than 30 percent of the domestic bond market. The currency weakness hit them hard last year as Indonesian bonds returned just 6 percent, a third of the sector's 16 percent average (see graphic).
from Global Investing:
Asia’s ballooning debt
Could Asia be headed for a debt crisis?
The very thought may seem ludicrous given the region's mighty current account surpluses and brimming central bank coffers. But a note from RBS analysts Drew Brick and Rob Ryan raises some interesting concerns.
Historically speaking, most EM crises have been borne on the back of excessive capital inflows, Brick and Ryan write. And in many Asian countries, the consequence of these flows has been over-easy monetary policy that has left citizens and companies addicted to cheap money. Personal and corporate indebtedness levels have spiralled even higher in the past five years as governments across the continent responded to the 2008 credit crunch by unleashing billions of dollars in stimulus.
from Breakingviews:
Ping An flop could leave HSBC red-faced but richer
By Peter Thal Larsen
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
A failed Ping An sale could leave HSBC red-faced, but richer. If regulators veto the UK bank’s $9.4 billion plan to offload its near-16 percent stake in the Chinese insurer, HSBC’s reputation will take a knock. But it could still end up financially better off.
from Breakingviews:
Other banks may take most of the UBS Libor pain
By George Hay
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own
UBS is next up in the Libor stocks, and the Swiss bank’s investors will be nervous. When Barclays became the first bank to admit fiddling the London interbank offered rate back in June, the ensuing reputational firestorm forced out both its chairman and chief executive. But even though UBS’s fine is expected to be more than double Barclays’ $450 million hit, the fallout could still be worse for other banks.
