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from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Aberdeen asset manager focuses on value amid market turmoil

Volatility has cooled for the moment, even as the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted its quantitative easing program on Wednesday, but Europe, China and Brazil are still concerns for financial markets, according to a veteran investment manager.

On Wednesday, the World Bank urged China to cut its growth forecast next year. Brazil’s stock market is still recovering from a sharp post-election sell off on Monday, and Europe’s financial sector needs some fine tuning.

Martin Connaghan. Senior Investment Manager, Aberdeen Asset Management

Martin Connaghan. Senior Investment Manager, Aberdeen Asset Management

Aberdeen Asset Management will stay its investment course and continue to pick stocks in core sectors amid the turmoil, Martin Connaghan, senior investment manager on the global equity team of Aberdeen told the Global Markets Forum on Wednesday.

“The economic environment has obviously been taking a turn for the worse,” Connaghan said. “That being said we are seeing some opportunity with regards to some industrial type stocks where recurring revenues as a result of service contracts give some degree of comfort.”

from Breakingviews:

Deutsche Bank’s fixed income wager yet to pay off

By George Hay

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Deutsche Bank’s strategy is still on probation. The German group decided earlier this year not to follow Barclays, its largest European rival, in cutting back its investment bank. The bet will only pay off if the recent slowdown in bond trading is merely cyclical, not part of a structural decline. The evidence from the third quarter results is inconclusive.

from Breakingviews:

UBS’ legal pain is beginning to look manageable

By Dominic Elliott

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

UBS investors can almost see past the bank’s legal woes. The Zurich-based financial group is still paying for past sins, with a 12 month extension of a U.S. non-prosecution deal and a hefty 1.8 billion Swiss francs ($1.9 billion) addition to litigation provisions in the third quarter. But underlying businesses are now prospering.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Sinking mortgage rates disguise investor fear – economist

A dip in 30-year mortgage rates to their lowest level in more than a year and stronger U.S. housing data on Friday appeared to be the green shoots of the next phase of U.S. economic recovery, that being the housing market.

U.S. housing starts were up a whopping 6.3 percent in September. Together, the mortgage and housing data seemed to suggest a housing recovery. That, in turn, fits neatly into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s initial timeline for ending its asset buying program this month, even as the number of sales of previously owned homes disappointed on Monday.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

China economic reforms may result in $14.4 trillion GDP, growth at 6 percent – Asia Society report

Sweeping economic reform initiated by China President Xi Jinping in November 2013 marked a turning point for the world's second biggest economy. If implemented fully, China's potential GDP growth can be sustained at 6 percent through 2020. One risk: Falling short of that growth rate could result in growth at half that projection, or worse, leading to a new economic crisis, according to a new study.

Dan Rosen, founding partner, Rhodium Group

Dan Rosen, founding partner, Rhodium Group

Dan Rosen, author of a report for the Asia Society Policy Institute, argues that China's growth model is no longer working. The drivers that contributed to China's post-1978 growth are weakening, with existing investments showing diminished returns and overall total-factor productivity, or TFP, falling. TFP is an economic term that broadly measures efficiency using input factors such as labor and capital. "Demographic dividends propelled China through the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, but the labor force is now at its largest and is poised to shrink," he writes.

from Breakingviews:

FX business now shares equities’ harsh economics

By Dominic Elliott

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Currency trading is taking over from equities as the challenged business in investment banking. Resurgent volatility in foreign exchange markets during September and October is unlikely to offer more than a temporary respite for the business.

from Breakingviews:

More is less for Credit Suisse’s three co-heads

By Dominic Elliott

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Three looks a crowd at the top of Credit Suisse’s investment bank. The Swiss firm has promoted Jim Amine and Tim O’Hara alongside existing co-chief Gael de Boissard, adding a new twist to the turf wars typical when big sections of lenders are run by co-heads. But the moves could prefigure a more significant succession – that of Chief Executive Brady Dougan.

from Breakingviews:

Hong Kong weathers Occupy’s financial disruption

By Robyn Mak

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Hong Kong’s economy is coping with pro-democracy protests, now heading into their third week. Some retailers and other businesses have suffered and traffic is bad, but the city’s financial system is undisturbed. A prolonged standoff between protesters and the government matters less to investors than the slowdown in consumption and spending in mainland China. Warnings that the movement would threaten Hong Kong’s financial health look misplaced.

from Edward Hadas:

Call that money-printing?

By Edward Hadas

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Finance doesn’t get the disrespect it deserves. Nothing about money and credit is sacred – certainly not quantity of currency outstanding. The political and monetary authorities should feel free to add and subtract money as needed to help the economy function better.

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

GMF @HedgeWorld West, World Bank/IMF and Financial & Risk Summit Toronto 2014

(Updates with guest photos and new links).

Join our special coverage Oct. 6-10 in the Global Markets Forum as we hit the road, from the West Coast to Washington to the Great White North.

GMF will be live next week from the HedgeWorld West conference in Half Moon Bay, California, where we’ll be blogging insight from speakers including Peter Thiel, former San Francisco 49ers great Steve Young and other panelists' viewpoints on the most important investment themes, allocation strategies, reputation risk management ideas and more.

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