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from Breakingviews:

Credit Suisse’s future is mid-table drabness

By Dominic Elliott

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Credit Suisse’s future is more workmanlike than its racy third quarter might suggest. The Swiss group revealed on Oct. 23 that its investment bank had trumped Wall Street: fixed income trading revenue leapt by a half year-on-year, against U.S. peers’ average mid-teens increase. But questions linger over Credit Suisse’s ability to maintain that performance if rates rise.

Credit Suisse’s quarter was a mixed bag. Its traditionally strong securitisation arm and emerging markets drove the third quarter rise in the investment bank’s top line. A 13 percent group return on equity is better than most peers. But wealth management revenue was flat year-on-year, with net margins falling once again to just 25 basis points.

A global shift from offshore to onshore private banking is hurting. A single client pulled 1.1 billion Swiss francs from its Swiss-based business during the quarter. Cross-town rival UBS has gained far more in overall assets since the pair hit crisis lows.

from Breakingviews:

Fragility is bigger worry than volatility for the markets

By Rob Cox

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

It has been impossible to escape the V-word for the past week. Turn on the television, and it is easy to conclude that central bankers, corporate chiefs, investors and politicians think volatility is the biggest problem vexing global markets. The rollercoaster ride recently experienced by financial assets is nettlesome. But it’s merely a symptom of a bigger malady: the fragility of widely accepted assumptions about where the world is headed.

from Hugo Dixon:

Markets right to worry about euro zone

By Hugo Dixon

Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.

The markets are right to worry about the euro zone, the epicentre of last week’s fright. Its three big economies – Germany, France and Italy – are, in their own ways, stuck.

from Breakingviews:

More is less for Credit Suisse’s three co-heads

By Dominic Elliott

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Three looks a crowd at the top of Credit Suisse’s investment bank. The Swiss firm has promoted Jim Amine and Tim O’Hara alongside existing co-chief Gael de Boissard, adding a new twist to the turf wars typical when big sections of lenders are run by co-heads. But the moves could prefigure a more significant succession – that of Chief Executive Brady Dougan.

from Global Investing:

Strong dollar, weak oil and emerging markets growth

Many emerging economies have been banking on weaker currencies to revitalise economic growth.  Oil's 25 percent fall in dollar terms this year should also help. The problem however is the dollar's strength which is leading to a general tightening of monetary conditions worldwide, more so in countries where central banks are intervening to prevent their currencies from falling too much.

Michael Howell, managing director of the CrossBorder Capital consultancy estimates the negative effect of the stronger dollar on global liquidity (in simple terms, the amount of capital available for investment and spending) outweighs the positives from falling oil prices by a ratio of 10 to 1. Not only does it raise funding costs for non-U.S. banks and companies, it also usually forces other central banks to keep monetary policy tight, especially in countries with high inflation or external debt levels. Howell says:

from Breakingviews:

Goldman pulls every lever to make machine run

By Antony Currie

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Goldman Sachs pulled every lever to ensure its machine ran properly over the summer. The bank earned $2.1 billion in the three months to September, blowing past Wall Street expectations. Its dealmakers and traders played their part, as did the firm’s own investments. The real fillip, however, to the bank’s annualized 11.8 percent return on equity came from socking away less for pay.

from Breakingviews:

CICC loses a princeling, gains investment appeal

By John Foley

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

To lose a princeling looks careless, but no worse. That should reassure backers of China International Capital Corp, the Chinese investment bank whose well-connected chief executive has just resigned.

from Breakingviews:

Jamie Dimon returns to challenges old and new

By Antony Currie

The author is a Reuters Breakingview columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Jamie Dimon is back in the saddle after battling cancer – just in time for the JPMorgan boss to face challenges old and new. Overall results in the third quarter released on Tuesday missed estimates thanks to rising costs. The group’s investment bank is punching below its weight. Cybersecurity is a growing worry. Even the timing of the bank’s earnings was off.

from Breakingviews:

Traders need help to make Wall Street shine

By Antony Currie

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. 

Wall Street’s fixed income trading desks welcomed a rare return of volatility. It probably hasn’t been enough, though, to ensure decent profitability for Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley in the quarter just ended. They’d need to generate up to $12 billion of extra revenue among them trading bonds, foreign exchange and commodities to achieve a return on equity of 15 percent.

from Breakingviews:

Jumbo $6 bln bank IPO shows Saudi too big to miss

By Una Galani

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Saudi Arabia’s jumbo bank offering shows the soon-to-open emerging market is too good to miss. The kingdom’s top lender by assets is planning to sell shares worth $6 billion, making it the biggest-ever initial public offering in the Middle East and second only to China’s Alibaba in the world this year. For most outsiders, it’s a reminder of the opportunities that will open up when foreign investors are granted direct access to the country’s $584 billion stock market next year.

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