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from Global Investing:
Japan’s big-money investors still sitting tight
More on the subject of Japanese overseas investment.
As we said here and here, Japanese cash outflows to world markets have so far been limited to a trickle, almost all from retail mom-and-pop investors who like higher yields and are estimated to have 1500 trillion yen ($15.40 trillion) in savings. As for Japan's huge institutional investors -- the $730 billion mutual fund industry and $3.4 trillion life insurance sectors -- they are sitting tight.
If some are to be believed, the hype over outflows is misguided. Morgan Stanley for one reckons Japanese insurers' foreign bond buying may rise by just 2-3 percent in the next two years, amounting to $60-100 billion. Pension funds are even less likely to re-balance their portfolios given large cash flow needs, the bank said.
But a Reuters survey last week revealed several insurance companies are indeed considering boosting unhedged foreign bond holdings. Insurers currently hold almost half their assets in Japanese government bonds and risk being crowded out of the JGB market as the central bank ramps up purchases. A recent survey by Barclays also showed Japanese investors keen on overseas debt.
Barclays analyst Bill Diviney offers the following explanation as to why institutional investors haven't ventured out so far:
from Global Investing:
Show us the (Japanese) money
Where is the Japanese money? Mostly it has been heading back to home shores as we wrote here yesterday.
The assumption was that the Bank of Japan's huge money-printing campaign would push Japanese retail and institutional investors out in search of yield. Emerging markets were expected to capture at least part of a potentially huge outflow from Japan and also benefit from rising allocations from other international funds as a result. But almost a month after the BOJ announced its plans, the cash has not yet arrived.
from Breakingviews:
European banks turn tables on Wall Street
By Dominic Elliott
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Two of Europe’s biggest investment banking firms have defied fears they would fall behind Wall Street peers in the first quarter. Credit Suisse and Barclays succeeded in maintaining revenue in investment banking year-on-year, against an average drop of 7 percent among U.S. peers. Costs fell too. Given their recent history, the decision by both banks to maintain sizeable investment banking operations is controversial. But the numbers provide some justification.
from Global Investing:
Cheaper oil and gold: a game changer for India?
Someone's loss is someone's gain and as Russian and South African markets reel from the recent oil and gold price rout, investors are getting ready to move more cash into commodity importer India.
Stubbornly high inflation and a big current account deficit are India's twin headaches. Lower oil and gold prices will help with both. India’s headline inflation index is likely to head lower, potentially opening room for more interest rate cuts. That in turn could reduce gold demand from Indians who have stepped up purchases of the yellow metal in recent years as a hedge against inflation.
from Breakingviews:
Malone swoop frees Barclays but traps Ziggo
By Dominic Elliott
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
John Malone’s latest swoop in the cable sector is true to form. The cable tycoon’s Liberty Global was sitting on a paper profit of over 40 million euros hours after buying a 12.7 pct stake in Dutch cable company Ziggo from Barclays on March 28. Malone has shrewdly exploited a forced seller, after Barclays was lumbered with the millions of Ziggo shares it failed to sell for the company’s private-equity owners days earlier. What’s more, he has plenty of experience in using blocking stakes as a takeover strategy.
from Global Investing:
Bond investors’ pre-budget optimism in India
Ten-year Indian bond yields have fallen 30 basis points this year alone and many forecast the gains will extend further. It all depends on two things though -- the Feb 28 budget of which great things are expected, and second, the March 19 central bank meeting. The latter potentially could see the RBI, arguably the world's most hawkish central bank, finally turn dovish.
Barclays is advising clients to bid for quotas to buy Indian government and corporate bonds at this Wednesday's foreigners' quota auction (India's securities exchange, SEBI, will auction around $12.3 billion in quotas for foreign investors to buy bonds). Analysts at the bank noted that this would be the last auction before the central bank meeting at which a quarter point rate cut is expected. Moreover the Reserve Bank of India will signal more to come, Barclays says, predicting 75 bps in total starting March.
from Global Investing:
Russian companies next stop for Euroclear
The excitement continues over Russian assets becoming Euroclearable. Euroclear's head confirmed last week to journalists in Moscow that corporate debt would be the next step, potentially becoming eligible for settlement within a month. Russian equities are set to follow from July 1, 2014.
What that means is foreign investors buying Russian domestic rouble bonds will be able to process them through the Belgium-based clearing house, which transfers securities from the seller’s securities account to the securities account of the buyer, while transferring cash from the account of the buyer to the account of the seller.
from Breakingviews:
Drip-drip Libor shame beats an industry settlement
By Dominic Elliott
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Settlements by three firms - Barclays, UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland - have each contained disclosures of the culture of the trading floor, via recorded Bloomberg messages. One RBS trader referred to his readiness to raise and lower his requests for the Libor rate as being akin to a “whores drawers”. Another offered to “come over there and make love to you” in return for helpful rate submissions. Yet another quipped: “[It’s] just amazing how libor fixing can make you that much money.”
from Global Investing:
Clearing a way to Russian bonds
Russian debt finally became Euroclearable today.
What that means is foreign investors buying Russian domestic rouble bonds will be able to process them through Belgian clearing house Euroclear, which transfers securities from the seller's securities account to the securities account of the buyer, while transferring cash from the account of the buyer to the account of the seller. Euroclear's links with correspondent banks in more than 40 countries means buying Russian bonds suddenly becomes easier.And safer too in theory because the title to the security receives asset protection under Belgian law. That should bring a massive torrent of cash into the OFZs, as Russian rouble government bonds are known.
In a wide-ranging note entitled "License to Clear" sent yesterday, Barclays reckons previous predictions of some $20 billion in inflows from overseas to OFZ could be understated -- it now estimates that $25 to $40 billion could flow into Russian OFZs during 2013-2o14. Around $9 billion already came last year ahead of the actual move, Barclays analysts say, but more conservative asset managers will have waited for the Euroclear signal before actually committing cash.
from Global Investing:
Emerging debt vs equity: to rotate or not
Emerging bonds have got off to a flying start in 2013, with debt funds taking in over $2 billion this past week, the second highest weekly inflow ever, according to fund tracker EPFR Global. Issuance is strong - Turkey for instance this week borrowed cash repayable in 10 years for just 3.47 percent, its lowest yield ever in the dollar market.
Yet not everyone is optimistic and most analysts see last year's returns of 16-18 percent EM debt returns as out of reach. The consensus instead seems to be for 5-8 percent as tight spreads and low yields leave little room for further rallies -- average yields on the EMBI Global sovereign debt index is just 4.4 percent. Domestic bonds meanwhile could suffer if inflation turns problematic. (see here for our story on emerging bond sales and returns).
