from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Glacially Speaking

October 5, 2015

The week’s data is not strong enough to offset last week’s disappointment at the weak jobs report, so markets are more likely to focus on the several Fed speakers on the docket.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Under Pressure

September 25, 2015

This is a weird market we’re in. Equities spent a good part of the day under pressure, rebounded late on what was attributed to a wonky note that took an inside baseball view of the recent selloff, fell, and then rose, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen first said explicitly that the Fed plans on raising rates, and then suffered a mild health issue that gave everyone a bit of a scare before doctors said she was okay to continue with her schedule.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Now What?

September 18, 2015

The Fed has a lot of supporters among those who believe it wasn’t time to raise rates. Most primary dealers moved their expectations on a rate increase prior to the Fed meeting, the fed funds market was clearly signaling a very low chance of a rate increase, and plenty of commentators, domestic and international, expressed concern about the Fed moving rates at a time when it just wasn’t prudent to do so.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Fed Outlook: Bet on Chaos, and All Else a Toss-Up

September 17, 2015

With great power comes great responsibility, as a wise comic-book character once said. And so the Federal Reserve's decision this afternoon bears the weight of re-establishing credibility in its ability to shift policy in more than one direction, communicate to markets its thinking, and yet - if it raises rates - to soothe investors concerned that several more rate increases are in the offing. (The Fed has repeatedly said this isn't the case, but who knows how markets interpret things sometimes.)

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The Frowning of a Lifetime

September 16, 2015

With corrective action that has been seen in the last several months (and yes, this correction should accurately be dated to May), it’s good to try to start somewhere when it comes to optimism. Jason Goepfert of points out that total pink sheet activity as a percentage of the Nasdaq volume has dropped to levels not seen since the aftermath of the dot-com blowup.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Kick the Can

July 14, 2015

If history repeats itself, first as tragedy, next as farce, the third time is probably “Greece.” The austerity measures to be implemented and the staggering bailout sum together mark another exhibit in the long history of evidence supporting the line about insanity being the thing someone does over and over while expecting a different result. In its most ruthless terms, though, the markets liked it on Monday, the stock market was higher, the Treasury market sold off, and we’re in a kick-the-can scenario that David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors a few weeks ago said would be viewed well because markets like can-kicking. It’s possible it gives investment managers the hope that they’ve found the fountain of youth or something.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

It’s All Greek to Us

June 29, 2015

Today looks set to be one of those days when the fictional (The Princess Bride) character Inigo Montoya’s directive: “Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up” would prove valuable.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Do You Believe in Magic?

June 22, 2015

The main action for investors is a focus on that same problem – Greece. But hope springs anew on fresh reports of a cash-for-reforms deal in the hours jut before the latest LAST meeting to be held Monday evening Europaland-time.

from Breakingviews:

Trading illiquidity theories lack solid ground

June 18, 2015

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Change is in the air

June 8, 2015

We go into the week with the U.S. Treasury market having suffered its worst weekly run in three months; the benchmark 10-year Treasury saw its biggest jump in yield in nearly two years, basically dating back to the “taper tantrum” of 2013.