from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The Fed and the Damage Done

January 28, 2015

The general sense from financial strategists and the commentators around them is to look at earnings reports like what was put out there from Caterpillar, Microsoft and a number of other big-name companies, see their disappointments (in part the result of the dollar’s strength, which seems to have surprised the hell out of a lot of people, judging by the Tuesday selloff) and wonder why the Fed might consider holding the line with its “coming soon!” approach to raising rates before long. Add to that all the recent moves by the various other worldwide central banks to lower rates – the Danes, the euro zone, the Canadians – and the Fed looks even more out on an island with the harder line that it is taking at this point.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The once in a 100,000-years event

January 16, 2015

The surprise move Thursday from the Swiss National Bank has had the effect of confusing a lot of people about a lot of things: the SNB’s intentions, the timing, the ancillary effects and who the losers are.

from MacroScope:

France grieves and questions

By Mike Peacock
January 8, 2015

Makeshift memorial is seen outside the Consulate General of France during a vigil for the victims of an attack on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris, in San Francisc

The youngest of three French nationals hunted over the killing of 12 people at a satirical magazine turned himself in overnight. The police have named the trio, the two still at large are brothers Said and Cherif Kouachi.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The Fed disconnect

January 6, 2015

There's something of a disconnect right now when it comes to the expectations the Fed will raise rates before long - the markets still see it as happening in late-2015, the most recent poll of primary dealers puts it in the mid-2015 area - and the way in which inflation expectations overall have dropped in the last few weeks, given the plunge in oil prices.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Considerable consideration of time

December 17, 2014

Markets like to tie themselves in knots ahead of Fed decisions. Instead of landing on what's expected, at times of volatility investors instead go in the other direction and start to consider all sorts of wild scenarios on what the slide-rule committee might do instead. But the outlook for the Fed's statement should be pretty straightforward: the Fed is likely to go with what the market expects, and remove its phrase talking about keeping rates at rock-bottom levels for a "considerable time," as it has no reason not to.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

These prices are insaaaaane!

December 15, 2014

It’s time to pause and take stock of the effect of the oil slump and dollar rise on markets, rather from just marveling at it. Market-watchers tend to look at one asset and attempt to use it as a guide for what will happen in another.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

The Market’s Silly Season

December 4, 2014

The meaningful part of the year is drawing to a close (near as I can see it, there's tomorrow's jobs report, the Fed meeting in two weeks, and, yep, that's about it), and as we head into the silly season for happenings in our markets, here's a laundry list of oddball things to consider:

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Turning Japanese

November 17, 2014

Just when the market thought it was out, it gets pulled back in. The bond market continues to threaten to break into higher levels, but something always seems to undermine that story.

from Morning Bid with David Gaffen:

Auction Calling!

November 13, 2014

It's no secret that the Treasury market has changed a bit in recent months due to concerns from banks about holding too much in the way of securities and running afoul of various rules international regulators are setting up.

from Global Investing:

Counting Pennies In Venezuela

November 12, 2014

It was a gloomy, rainy night in Boston last week where emerging market analysts and portfolio managers huddled together before an audience of 75+ people to discuss an equally gloomy situation in Venezuela, specifically whether or not the nation, with the biggest proven oil reserves in the world, is on the precipice of defaulting on its debt.