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from India Insight:

Markets this week: Infosys, Sesa Sterlite top Sensex losers

The BSE Sensex closed in the red twice this week, eventually ending with losses of 0.5 percent. The week began with the benchmark index touching an all-time high of 22,023.98 points in trade on Monday, aided by strong foreign buying.

Shares retreated from record highs as investors booked profits and by Friday, some caution was setting in about the pace of recent gains.

Key economic data released this week showed prices cooling as wholesale and consumer inflation eased and industrial output rose slightly, raising hopes that the Reserve Bank of India would leave its key interest rate unchanged at its policy meet in April.

In the currency market, the rupee fell 0.2 percent for the week, snapping a two-week winning streak.

from Expert Zone:

Is the current euphoria in equity markets justified?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The third-quarter results season corroborates my view that 2014 will be a year of fragile recovery for the Indian economy. Fragile, I reiterate.

The market, however, has run up to an all-time high, with the Nifty breaching the psychological barrier of 6,500. Is the euphoria justified?

from Expert Zone:

How election years affect the stock market

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The ongoing stock market rally has been primarily supported by foreign investors. The rupee also rose to a near three-month high against the dollar on Friday.

It is rather unusual for the Indian market to jump in pre-election months, particularly after 1996 when coalitions became the new political strategy to make up for shortfalls in parliamentary majority. In most election years, the market had actually fallen just before the elections - in 2004, by more than 10 percent.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: It’s time again for an election year ‘rally of hope’

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Despite a volatile Friday, it was a good week for the markets and saw the Nifty close about 90 points higher at 6,261, with sentiment supported by better-than-expected quarterly results and benign inflation data.

The few earnings that disappointed investors seemed to affect specific stocks without having a bearing on either the sector or the markets.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Driven by hope in an election-led rally

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The New Year was ushered in with a steep and sudden correction in the broader indexes, with the Nifty closing 1.63 percent lower at 6,211. However, the mid-cap and small-cap indexes outperformed.

Though the holiday mood was evident, it was a politically charged week. The newly installed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) government in Delhi won a confidence motion with the support of the Congress. They subsequently announced power subsidies after granting water sops last week. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh addressed a rare press conference, the third in 10 years, announcing his intent of handing over the baton to a new prime minister.

from Expert Zone:

Will 2014 be any better for investors?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

High inflation, low GDP growth and a sharp depreciation in the rupee led to subdued returns of 6.8 percent for the Nifty in 2013.

The core sectors — steel, cement, industrials, energy, infrastructure and capital goods — continued their poor performance and hence valuations shrunk, while consumer staples, IT, pharma and private sector financials bucked the trend. But the polarisation towards a few sectors underscores growing risk aversion.

from India Insight:

Sensex performers in 2013: TCS surges 73 percent, Sun Pharma gains 54 percent

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By Aditya Karla and Sankalp Phartiyal

The BSE Sensex ended 2013 with gains of 9 percent after hitting life highs during the year. The benchmark index touched an all-time high of 21,483.74 on Dec. 9 after falling to a 2013 low of 17,448.71 in August.

Foreign inflows boosted sentiment on the street even as concerns about a slowing economy and high inflation weighed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought a net $20.1 billion worth of Indian shares in the year. FIIs had bought $24.5 billion worth of stocks in 2012.

from Expert Zone:

Unclear messages from the electoral tea leaves

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The past 12 months have been characterized by the narrowest market in two decades although sectoral performance varied significantly. While the markets are likely to be range-bound, valuations are expected to rise in 2014, especially in the first half.

Based on a one-year forward PE range of between 12.5 and 15 times and our top-down FY15 earnings growth forecast for the Nifty of between 10 percent and 15 percent, we expect the index to trade between 5,500 and 6,900 in 2014, with a target of 6,900 -- an implied increase of around 10 percent relative to current levels.

from India Insight:

Markets this week: Sensex gains 1 percent, Tata Power surges over 10 percent

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By Ankush Arora and Aditya Kalra

The BSE Sensex ended with gains of 1 percent in the week ending Dec. 6, as investor sentiment was boosted after exit polls indicated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seen by many as being more business-friendly, will win four of the five state elections conducted recently.

State elections are seen as a semi-final before the national polls next year. Elections are the key theme for the first half of 2014 and the recent rally in the stock market implies that a BJP government is no longer viewed as a low-probability scenario, UBS said this week. The investment bank has set a 2014 target for Nifty at 6,900.

from Expert Zone:

India Market Weekahead – Volatility to continue in the run-up to general elections

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Investors pressed the panic button on Friday with the Nifty diving 4 percent, its biggest single-day fall in two years, to end at 5508.

Measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the eve of the Independence Day holiday to prop up the rupee were among the triggers for the fall. The rupee didn’t do all that well either, falling to an all-time low of 62.03 to the dollar early on Friday.

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