Archive

Reuters blog archive

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Tough for Nifty to climb above 7,800

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Indian markets were unaffected by the week's international developments, with some help from encouraging domestic macro data and a pep talk by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in post-budget discussions.

The Nifty recovered from the previous week's losses, closing 2.67 percent up at 7664. Positive IIP data was followed by benign inflation at 5.43 percent, a four-month low. Monsoon rains, which had been playing truant, recovered substantially with the deficit shrinking to 15 percent below average last week and covering the entire country.

The geo-political tension in west Asia as well as the shooting down of a civilian aircraft in the war-torn region of Ukraine did not affect Indian markets though the U.S. and European markets reacted adversely.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi earned a feather in his cap when he negotiated for an Indian to be the first president of the $100 billion BRICS Bank. It is expected that this would supplement government spending in the Indian infrastructure sector in the next two-three years.

from Expert Zone:

Budget strikes the right chord on reviving investment

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley (C) poses as he leaves his office to present the federal budget for the 2014/15 fiscal year, in New Delhi July 10, 2014. REUTERS/StringerPatient, consistent baseline play rather than aggressive serve and volley -- that about sums up the Narendra Modi-led government’s maiden budget.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: ‎Book out of high-beta stocks

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley (C) poses as he leaves his office to present the federal budget for the 2014/15 fiscal year, in New Delhi July 10, 2014. REUTERS/StringerThe Narendra Modi government presented its maiden budget on Thursday. Although the budget was welcomed by industry leaders, the market meltdown seems to be telling a different story, with the Nifty posting its biggest weekly loss in 15 months.

Should it have been a path-breaking budget or is it prudent to build the economy brick-by-brick by walking the middle path? The much hyped "bitter pill" turned out to be a "bland" one.

from Expert Zone:

‎India Markets Weekahead: Correction could follow budget week

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Last week's robust pre-budget rally belied expectations, with the Nifty closing up more than 3 percent at a record high of 7,751‎. Automobile sales, manufacturing PMI as well as services PMI showed an uptick. The Iraq turmoil seems to have taken a back seat with oil prices receding from a nine-month peak. A rally in world markets, with life highs for the DJIA and S&P 500, also aided sentiment.

India's fiscal deficit in the first two months has already touched 45.6 percent of the full-year target. Though this would have been a negative indicator, the markets welcomed Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s remarks about focusing on fiscal consolidation against "mindless populism".

from Expert Zone:

Markets Weekahead: After new Modi govt, correction to continue for a few weeks

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

After a dream run for markets, we witnessed a correction last week with the Nifty declining about 1.86 percent to close at 7,229. The smaller stocks also paused -- the NSE mid-cap index lost about 4.5 percent.

Incidentally, India entered the top 10 markets in terms of market capitalization and we should soon cross the market capitalization of US $ 1.5 trillion once the upswing resumes.

from Expert Zone:

Markets Weekahead: A decisive mandate for equities

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

Not even exit polls could have predicted the landslide election victory that ‎has put the BJP's Narendra Modi in the driver's seat for India.

The Nifty, after the initial euphoria of a 6 percent upswing, ended Friday at 7203, merely 80 points higher than the previous day. It was a typical “sell on news” phenomenon.

from Expert Zone:

Markets Weekahead: ‎Time to book profits and not be greedy

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The highlight of the past week was a stupendous 3 percent rally on Friday with the Nifty ending at a record high of 6858. Investors were in a sombre mood earlier in the week, when the market was threatening to break a crucial support level around 6650.

The sudden turn on Friday and the ferocity of the move took most participants by surprise. It was a combination of fresh buying as well as short covering which resulted in a near 200 point rally. It seemed everyone wanted to join the bandwagon due to the fear of missing a bigger rally.

from Expert Zone:

India market weekahead – Partial profit-booking may be prudent before election results

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The so-called "rally of hope" stuttered during the week as Indian markets turned volatile. The Nifty closed at 6695, down 1.30 percent. The fear of the El Nino effect and the IMD forecast of below-normal rainfall seems to have made investors cautious.

With election results two weeks away, investors need to take a stand in the next few days. Although there can be a number of outcomes, only two would be termed positive for the markets - a landslide victory or a comfortable majority to form a stable government. The other scenarios such as a fractured mandate, a third front coalition or a weak UPA or NDA coalition would deflate the sentiment built up till date as the markets have already discounted a favourable outcome.

from India Insight:

Markets this week: Infosys, Sesa Sterlite top Sensex losers

The BSE Sensex closed in the red twice this week, eventually ending with losses of 0.5 percent. The week began with the benchmark index touching an all-time high of 22,023.98 points in trade on Monday, aided by strong foreign buying.

Shares retreated from record highs as investors booked profits and by Friday, some caution was setting in about the pace of recent gains.

from Expert Zone:

Is the current euphoria in equity markets justified?

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

The third-quarter results season corroborates my view that 2014 will be a year of fragile recovery for the Indian economy. Fragile, I reiterate.

The market, however, has run up to an all-time high, with the Nifty breaching the psychological barrier of 6,500. Is the euphoria justified?

  •