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from Expert Zone:

The stock market’s delayed response to Budget 2013

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram tried to humour the market in his budget by cutting the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) which had been one of its sore points. But the market was not amused. The Sensex continued to slide, indifferent to the budget which was presented with a lot of expectations.

This appears to be rather strange because the budget was well received by the industry, in spite of the increase in surcharge from 5 to 10 percent. It was possibly the realization that the finance minister lived up to his promise of cutting fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent which created an infectious confidence in growth revival.

Chidambaram could have hardly done anything more, considering there were economic and political compulsions he could not ignore. No big bang was possible and no big tax mobilization was undertaken.

The reduction in fiscal deficit was a good reason for the market to have responded positively to the budget. Because it would start a chain of events that could see the industry recover from a stalemate. First, the additional borrowing by the government in 2013/14 would be small and would not crowd out the financial market. Second, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been harping on a reduction in fiscal deficit as a precursor to cut interest rates.

from Expert Zone:

India Markets Weekahead: Beware the Ides of March

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Markets ended budget week below support levels of 5800/5840 and just when the six-month rally seemed over for good, it made a spirited V-shaped recovery to close at 5946 on Friday, with gains of 3.95 percent. The Street is divided with some expecting this to be the beginning of a new rally with the market scaling highs that it missed in February; others see it as a strong pullback which will fizzle out soon.

The government seems to be responding faster to allay investor fears. It was quick to respond to FII worries over proposed changes in tax residency certificates. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has been assuring investors of continued policy measures, including the Direct Taxes Code (DTC) bill being introduced in the current parliament session.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: Political strategy, not economic blueprint

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

With the dust settling after Budget 2013, the picture is getting a bit clearer. Opinions on the budget have ranged from praise to outright criticism. The true position lies somewhere in between -- depending on one’s political inclination, views on the finance minister and one’s financial interests.

Most agree there is considerable misalignment between diagnosis and prescriptions in the budget. The three biggest problems identified by P. Chidambaram are:
- rising fiscal deficit that needs to be controlled
- high current account deficit and
- declining economic growth rate.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: A rather ambitious budget

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(Rajan Ghotgalkar is Managing Director of Principal Pnb Asset Management Company. The views expressed in this column are his own and do not represent those of either Principal Pnb or Reuters)

Rating agencies have left India’s sovereign rating unchanged after the 2013 Budget. A rating downgrade would mean India getting junk status which is certainly not something one would want when the current account deficit is widening.

from Expert Zone:

Risk factors in Budget 2013

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has apparently done the impossible. He has brought down the fiscal deficit in the current year from the budgeted 5.3 percent to 5.2 percent in spite of the fall in revenues. What’s more, the deficit was further slashed to 4.8 percent in the 2013/14 budget. Is that realistic?

Look at the expenditure. In the current year, subsidies on food, petroleum products and fertilizer were up by 676 billion rupees or 36 percent. These are precisely the expenditures the minister had to curtail, though he did make an effort to do that too late in the day. With the jump in non-Plan expenditure, the fiscal deficit could be brought down only by cutting Plan expenditure.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: A run-of-the-mill affair

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

After the sustained hype of a game changer budget, Budget 2013 was a totally run-of-the-mill affair with no announcements of any kind of deregulatory or growth propelling initiatives.

True enough, some of the more promising measures taken in the last 12 months were not related to budgetary statements. Not surprisingly, the Sensex greeted Budget 2013 by falling.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: A high-calorie budget

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

India’s left-leaning government believes in the ‘eat more, burn more’ philosophy in managing its finances. Budget 2013 takes that idea further with an even stronger projected rise in spending.

If the increased spending is aimed at productive use, it may still end up doing some good. But the track record does not inspire confidence. I hope that after talking the talk, the finance minister will not lose his nerve when it’s time to walk the walk.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013 does have some words of wisdom

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Reuters)

The finance minister had a tough job in hand with this being the government’s last budget before elections due in 2014. P. Chidambaram had to focus on fiscal consolidation while walking a tightrope between populism and pragmatism.

In my previous column, I had written about the issues he needs to address. Here’s a look at how Budget 2013 fared on these counts.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: An opportunity missed

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

Industry leaders have hailed Budget 2013 saying that this is the best Finance Minister P. Chidambaram could have done under the circumstances. Opposition leaders have slammed the budget. Each had their own compulsions but I feel the truth lies somewhere in between.

from Expert Zone:

Budget 2013: Visible impetus on growth

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(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author, and not necessarily of Thomson Reuters)

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram presented the annual budget at a time when India’s economy is going through a challenging period. India faces the four-pronged problem of high fiscal deficit, an unacceptably high current account deficit, declining growth and lower savings.

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