Reuters blog archive
British GDP data are forecast to show healthy growth of 0.7 percent in the third quarter.
Britain’s economy is growing at a strong annual clip of around three percent, a pace most euro zone countries could only dream of. But the government is worried that the currency area’s new malaise could take the shine off things in the run-up to May’s general election.
Then there is the stunningly low level of wage and income growth, lower even than Britain’s sluggish level of inflation. This is a robust recovery but how many Britons are feeling it?
With elections increasingly in mind, the ruling Conservative party would not have been happy about some of the headlines from Day One of an EU summit in Brussels.
A two-day summit of EU leaders is supposed to focus on climate and energy policy including efforts to enhance energy security following the threat of interruptions to gas supplies from Russia.
That is no small issue. Russia and Ukraine have failed so far to reach an accord on gas supplies for the coming winter but agreed to meet again in Brussels in a week in the hope of ironing out problems over Kiev's ability to pay.
By Olaf Storbeck
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Europe’s economic powerhouse is losing its lustre. Germany is flirting with a recession that may usher in a new era of feeble growth. Many drivers of its stellar growth performance in recent years are disappearing, and misguided policies add extra burdens. So far, Angela Merkel has not woken up to the country’s fading economic miracle.
The big question of the week is whether financial market gyrations continue, worsen or calm. European stocks are being called higher at the open.
Greece has been effectively shut out of the bond market. If it and others on the euro zone’s southern flank come under persistent market pressure, in a way that hasn’t happened for two years, the onus on the European Central Bank to act will grow and grow.
France will submit its 2015 budget to the European Commission today and, after a respectable period of consideration, it is likely to be thrown right back.
Paris has confirmed it will yet again miss the EU’s debt limits, failing to achieve a budget deficit of three percent of GDP until 2017 four years after it should have done.
The European Court of Justice holds a first hearing on the legality of the European Central Bank's Outright Monetary Transactions programme. There won’t be anything definitive today but it serves to rekindle debate about the limits of the ECB’s powers.
In February, the German Constitutional Court asked the European Court to rule on the legality of OMT, the mechanism that drew a line under the euro zone crisis when it was unveiled in 2012. The court may give guidance about how best to make a final ruling which is expected in late spring next year.
The predictable battle lines were drawn at the G20/IMF meetings in Washington - most of the world urged Europe to do more to foster growth while Germany warned against letting up on austerity. The argument will doubtless be reprised today when euro zone finance ministers meet in Luxembourg.
Given a ghastly run of German data last week and sharp cuts to its growth forecasts by the IMF and Germany’s economic institutes, Berlin’s stance looks increasingly odd but Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble continued to make it abundantly clear he will not countenance any more public spending in the one European country that could really afford it.
After a stunning fall in German industrial orders for August – the 5.7 percent monthly drop was the largest since the global financial crisis raged in 2009 – industrial output for the same month has just plunged by 4.0 percent, also the biggest fall in five years.
After Europe’s largest economy shrank in the second quarter there had been hope of a pick-up in the following three months but the thrust of recent data suggests it will be lucky to achieve any expansion at all.
France is unveiling its 2015 budget right now and it’s not making pretty reading, confirming that Paris will not get its budget deficit down to the EU limit of three percent of GDP until 2017, years after it should have done.
The health minister has said the welfare deficit is expected to run nearly one billion euros over budget this year and data on Tuesday showed France's national debt hit a record high in the second quarter, topping two trillion euros for the first time. It will near 100 percent of GDP next year.
from Expert Zone:
(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)
Since April, the stock market has been in a frenzy after a long period of utter gloom. In quick succession, the Sensex jumped month after month to cross 26,000 on July 7. This was not mere euphoria created by the election of the Narendra Modi government, with a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha after a long time.