Reuters blog archive
Euro zone inflation is the big figure of the day. The consensus forecast is it for hold at a paltry 0.5 percent. Germany’s rate came in as predicted at 0.8 percent on Wednesday but Spain’s was well short at -0.3 percent. So there is clearly a risk that inflation for the currency bloc as a whole falls even further.
The Bundesbank has taken the unusual step of saying wage deals in Germany are too low and more hefty rises should be forthcoming, a sign of its concern about deflation. But the bar to printing money remains high and the European Central Bank certainly won’t act when it meets next week. It is still waiting to see what impact its June interest rate cuts and offer of more long-term cheap money to banks might have.
German retail sales, just out, have risen 1.3 percent on the month in June after a fall in May.
One problem for the ECB will be how to remain in ultra-stimulative mode once U.S. interest rates start to rise. The Federal Reserve is on course to end its QE programme in October and repeated its message yesterday that is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
No tightening is expected before mid-2015 but as the realization grows that it is coming, it could start to have an impact. Strong U.S. GDP data yesterday and the Fed’s upgrading of its assessment of the U.S. economy pointed in that direction. There is little chance of euro zone long-term interest rates decoupling from U.S. ones if they start rising.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi makes a lengthy appearance in the European Parliament in Strasbourg. He will doubtless reassert that the ECB would start printing money if necessary but, as we reported last week, policymakers are fervently hoping they won’t have to and that a raft of measures announced in June will do enough to lift the economy and inflation.
Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann fired another broadside over the weekend, saying rates were too low for Germany and policy should remain expansive for no longer than absolutely necessary.
After the European Central Bank opened its toolbox and deployed pretty much everything it had left, bar printing money, the question is if and when QE becomes a live possibility.
ECB chief Mario Draghi pointedly said at his monthly news conference that all policy options had not been exhausted.
German resistance to such a move will remain, however, and Draghi’s deputy, Vitor Constancio, has already intimated that it will take until late this year to judge whether the latest gambits have made a difference before moving onto the next stage.
from Anatole Kaletsky:
At last, the European Central Bank seems ready to inject some adrenalin into the moribund euro zone economy. After last week’s news conference, when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi strongly hinted that action would take place after the June 5 council meeting, there have been a host of interviews and leaks specifically describing the new ideas the bank has in mind.
The biggest measure, now almost a foregone conclusion, will be a cut in the interest rate the ECB pays on bank deposits from zero to negative 0.1 or 0.2 percent. Bank officials have also hinted at several additional stimulus measures: extension of loans to commercial banks at low fixed rates for three years or even five years; ECB purchases of bank loans to small and medium enterprises, packaged into asset-backed securities; and concessional lending to European banks on condition they pass on these funds to small and medium businesses.
from Anatole Kaletsky:
Can economists contribute anything useful to our understanding of politics, business and finance in the real world?
I raise this question having spent last weekend in Toronto at the annual conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, a foundation created in 2009 in response to the failure of modern economics in the global financial crisis (whose board I currently chair). Unfortunately, the question raised above is as troubling today as it was in November 2008, when Britain’s Queen Elizabeth famously stunned the head of the London School of Economics by asking faux naively, “But why did nobody foresee this [economic collapse]?”
Worrying escalation in Crimea. Interfax reports Russian servicemen have take over a military airport in the Russian-speaking region of Ukraine and armed men are also patrolling the airport at Crimea’s regional centre of Simferopol.
Kiev has condemned the moves as an “armed invasion”.
There has been no bloodshed and there are more constructive noises from Moscow to weigh in the balance.
The decision by one of Silvio Berlusconi's key allies to break from his party and back Prime Minister Enrico Letta's fragile coalition appears to have shored up the Italian government with a final vote on expelling the media magnate from public life looming large.
Berlusconi said on Saturday his rump centre-right party had split from the coalition but did not have the numbers to bring it down.
Angelino Alfano, interior minister and deputy premier, said all five of the centre-right ministers under his umbrella would stay in the government but there is still plenty of disagreement within the coalition about the 2014 budget and doubts about Letta’s ability to push through meaningful economic reforms.
By Chris Hughes
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
At last, central bankers are speaking plainly on property bubbles. The Bundesbank said on Oct. 21 that apartment prices in some German cities could be 20 pct overvalued. Policymakers usually avoid such strident views on asset prices, especially housing, saying that values are not their problem per se; what counts is whether markets are fuelled by excessive borrowing. It would be better if central banks just said exactly what they thought.
UK finance minister George Osborne is speaking at a Reuters event today, Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean addresses a conference and we get September’s public finance figures. For Osborne, there are so many question to ask but Britain’s frothy housing market is certainly near the top of the list.
The government is extending its “help to buy” scheme at a time when house prices, in London at least, seem to be going through the roof (no pun intended). Property website Rightmove said on Monday that asking prices for homes in the capital jumped 10.2 percent in the last month alone.
German newspaper Handelsblatt has got hold of a confidential Bundesbank report to Germany’s constitutional court, which sharply criticized the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan. This could be very big or it could be nothing.
Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann has made no secret of his opposition to the as yet unused programme and since the mere threat of massive ECB intervention has driven euro zone bond yields lower for months there is no urgency to put it into action. But the OMT, as it is known, is by far the single biggest reason that markets have become calmer about the euro zone, so anything that threatens it could be of huge importance.