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from Global Investing:

In Chile, what’s good for stocks will be good for bonds

 

Felipe Larrain, Chile's finance minister is facing a new job come March when incoming center-left government of President-elect Michelle Bachelet takes over. An academic by profession, he intends to either make his way back into the cloistered lecture halls of a university, not necessarily in Chile, or work for some kind of international organization that is outside of the corporate or financial world.

Chile's economy, one of the best run in Latin America, with the highest investment grade credit rating in the region, is however experiencing a soggy point in its economic cycle. Inflation has picked up. There is continued weak economic output and domestic demand is cooling down. The central bank is holding its benchmark interest rate at 4.5 percent and suggests more stimulus is to come in the months ahead. The currency has depreciated but that's not a concern, Larrain said. He was more concerned when the peso was trading in the 430 per U.S. dollar range versus today's 3-1/2 year low of 545, an area he describes as providing equilibrium.

But before departing from his ministerial duties, Larrain outlined some of the achievements of his four years in office. The latest is the passage of the ‘Ley Unica de Fondos’, or ‘Investment Funds Act’. In Chile's fixed income market, foreign participation is a minuscule 1 percent versus 35-40 percent in equities. "What the laws have done to equities, this will do for fixed income," Larrain said in an interview with Reuters.

Listen in to this Reuters podcast to hear more about the law, which Larrain said has been described by independent financial analysts as the "most important regulatory change in Chilean financial markets since 2000/2001."

from MacroScope:

For workers, the long run has arrived in Latin America

The outlook for emerging market economies over the next decade looks more challenging as long-term interest rates start to bottom out in the United States. Here is another complicating factor: ageing populations.

That problem is not as serious as in Japan or Europe, of course. Still, investors probably need to cut down their expectations for economic growth in Latin America over the next years, according to a report by BNP Paribas.

from Photographers' Blog:

The lithium triangle

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LITHIUM MINING

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile hold the planet’s largest reserves of lithium, a key component in batteries used to power a range of technologies from cell phones to laptops to electric cars.

Industrial production from the so-called “lithium triangle” is already high. Chile is the world’s leading source of the metal, turning out around 40 percent of global supply, and Argentina is another significant producer. Output from the Andes may soon rise after Bolivia - the country that holds an estimated 50 percent of the world’s lithium reserves - opened its first lithium pilot plant in January.

from Global Investing:

Emerging Policy-Data vindicates doves but not all are cutting

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Rate decisions last week in emerging markets well anticipated this week's crop of economic data.

Russia for instance not only kept rates on hold last Friday (after raising them at its previous meeting) but struck a less hawkish tone than expected. Voila, data this week showed growth in the third quarter was 2.9 percent compared to 4 percent in April-June.

from MacroScope:

When interest rates rise, credit growth should… accelerate?

Latin America has defied one of the most elementary rules of macroeconomics in the past decade, Citigroup economists Joaquin Cottani and Camilo Gonzalez found in a report.

Lower interest rates reduce the cost of money and therefore should encourage businesses and consumers to borrow, as we've repeatedly heard from analysts and government officials for decades. Puzzlingly enough, credit growth accelerated after central banks in countries like Brazil and Peru raised rates, and slowed when borrowing costs fell. Why is that?

from Global Investing:

Emerging Policy-the big easing continues

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The big easing continues. A major surprise today from the Bank of Thailand, which cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent.  After repeated indications  from Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul that policy would stay unchanged for now, few had expected the bank to deliver its first rate cut since January.  But given the decision was not unanimous, it appears that Prasarn was overruled.  As in South Korea last week,  the need to boost domestic demand dictated the BoT's decision. The Thai central bank  noted:

The majority of MPC members deemed that monetary policy easing was warranted to shore up domestic demand in the period ahead and ward off the potential negative impact from the global economy which remained weak and fragile.

from Global Investing:

Fed re-ignites currency war (or currency skirmish)

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The currency war is back.

Since last week when the Fed started its third round of money-printing (QE3), policymakers in emerging markets have been busily talking down their own currencies or acting to curb their rise. These efforts may gather pace now that Japan has also increased its asset-buying programme, with expectations that the extra liquidity unleashed by developed central banks will eventually find its way into the developing world.

The alarm over rising currencies was reflected in an unusual verbal intervention this week by the Czech central bank, with governor Miroslav Singer hinting at  more policy loosening ahead, possibly with the help of unconventional policy tools. Prague is not generally known for currency interventions -- analysts at Societe Generale point out its last direct interventions were conducted as far back as 2001-2002.  Even verbal intervention is quite rate -- it last resorted to this on a concerted basis in 2009, SoGen notes. Singer's words had a strong impact -- the Czech crown fell almost 1 percent against the euro.

from Global Investing:

No policy easing this week in Turkey and Chile

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More and more emerging central banks have been embarking on the policy easing path in recent weeks. But Chile and Turkey which hold rate-setting meetings this Thursday are not expected to emulate them. Both are expected to hold interest rates steady for now.

In Chile, the interest rate futures market is pricing in that the central bank will keep interest rates steady at 5 percent for the seventh month in a row. Most local analysts surveyed by Reuters share that view. Chile's economy, like most of its emerging peers is slowing, hit by a potential slowdown in its copper exports to Asia but it is still expected at a solid 4.6 percent in the third quarter. Inflation is running at 2.5 percent, close to the lower end of the central bank's  percent target band.

from Breakingviews:

World’s new air giant taking off at turbulent time

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By Raul Gallegos
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Get ready for the world’s largest airline to take off this week. But don’t look north or east - the globe’s most valuable carrier is set to be South American. Chile’s LAN Airlines is on track to finally consummate its marriage to Brazilian rival TAM this Friday, almost two years after announcing the tie-up. But the promise of greater regional integration has fueled big expectations that economic headwinds will make difficult to meet.

from Photographers' Blog:

Trapped with a way out

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By Mariana Bazo

It would be impossible to think of rescuing miners and not to associate such thoughts to the rescue of the Chilean miners in San Jose, Copiapo, 2010. That really was a glorious rescue after a lengthy sixty-nine day underground wait.

This time in Peru, nine miners were trapped in an illegal copper and gold mine in the desert of Ica, south of Lima.

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