Reuters blog archive

from Global Markets Forum Dashboard:

Better year for commodities?

We quizzed Gavin Wendt, Founding Director & Senior Resource Analyst at MineLife, on the impact of Fed-taper on commodities, base metals, precious metals, nat-gas, Indonesia's ban on mineral exports and China.

Gavin is positive on soft commodities as hard commodities in the medium to longer-term. "The world's population is 7 billion and growing - and demand for energy, hard and soft commodities will only grow," he said.

Click to read the full transcript of our Q&A with Gavin.
Here are some highlights:

"We live in turbulent financial times - volatility is part and parcel of the markets these days, so I don't think we should be too surprised by what is taking place.
The Fed is doing the right thing and there was always going to be nervousness around the Fed taking the 'training wheels' off the economy. I think the situation in the EMs will sort itself out. We're in unchartered territory as far as the EMs are concerned - they form a much larger chunk of the world economy than ever before."

from Jack Shafer:

Dear Obama, spare us the press-freedom lecturing

Wearing his best straight face, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney lectured China on press freedom yesterday. In a redundant official statement, he accused Beijing of restricting "the ability of journalists to do their work" and "imped[ing] their ability to do their jobs."

If the Chinese cared about public opinion, they would have called a news conference of their own and read aloud from former Washington Post Executive Editor Leonard Downie Jr.'s comprehensive October report for the Committee to Protect Journalists, which cataloged the Obama administration's hostility toward the press. Downie found that although President Barack Obama promised a more open government, his administration has prosecuted sources under the Espionage Act, imposed delays on and denials of FOIA requests, and closed its doors on reporters, systematically blunting the press. And recent revelations about mass surveillance by the National Security Agency and the secret subpoena of reporters' phone logs and emails have contributed to a climate of fear in some newsrooms.

from Breakingviews:

Chinese M&A rings in new year with Auld Lang Syne

By Jeffrey Goldfarb
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Old friends are kicking off Chinese New Year with a rousing rendition of Auld Lang Syne. Last year’s $2.5 billion sale of Cooper Tire & Rubber was undermined by its joint venture partner in Rongsheng. The two sides have now agreed a deal that helps them part ways. Given what transpired, Cooper may not be the only outsider singing “should old acquaintance be forgot” in the Year of the Horse.

from Breakingviews:

Lenovo’s M&A spree challenges investors’ faith

By Ethan Bilby and Peter Thal Larsen
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

Lenovo prides itself on being a modern multinational, but its approach to divulging information remains frustratingly old-school. The Chinese group is buying Google’s Motorola phone business just a week after picking up IBM’s low-end server unit. Adding the two loss-making divisions to its portfolio will cost up to $5.2 billion in cash and stock. Though there’s some strategic logic, shareholders have little way of working out whether the deals stack up.

from Breakingviews:

ICBC takes slow-burn approach to global expansion

By John Foley

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist.  The opinions expressed are his own.

ICBC’s purchase of Standard Bank’s UK trading division has moved at a glacial pace, and gives rivals little to fear. That’s the best sign that China’s largest lender knows what it’s doing.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Turkey, the Fed, and we all float down here

The messy sell-off in emerging markets was stemmed overnight after Turkey surprised everyone by raising rates to 12 percent – but it didn’t last. Major averages in Britain and Germany opened at their highs of the day but have since faded, and even though the big rate increases in Turkey, South Africa and India are meant to stem capital flight, so far the market’s shooting first and asking questions later. S&P futures were up about 20 points after the Turkey rate hike – an odd move for such a localized event – and we’re seeing the reaction now, which, to quote Tom the cat about the ‘white mouse no longer being dangerous,’ “DON’T…YOU…BELIEVE…IT.” So we’re lower, and continue to head lower, and for those of you new to the markets, this is what’s called a selloff.

The big question: Will the Federal Reserve defer its tapering campaign in recognition of emerging-markets difficulty? One could say the Fed cannot be expected to act as the underwriter for global risk-taking, but you’d be laughed out of the room, given the performance of assets around the world in the last several years as the Fed went into full-QE mode.

from Breakingviews:

Apple numbers show scale of China challenge

By Ethan Bilby

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist.  The opinions expressed are his own.

Apple may be a dominant player in flogging smartphones in most of the world, but it’s still an also-ran in China. Disappointing global sales increase the pressure on the iPhone maker to gain ground in the People’s Republic. Though its deal with China Mobile should provide a boost, lower-cost rivals will limit its market share gains.

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – Emerging Markets, Apple, Ma Bell, and whatever else one can think of

In the words of Inigo Montoya, let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up.

The market's most immediate issues remain tied specifically to what's going on overseas, particularly in Turkey. There, monetary authorities are meeting on a potential interest rate hike as a way of getting on top of the inflation problem (inflation's at 7.5 percent, and the central bank's lending rate is, uh, 7.75 percent).

from Breakingviews:

China falls prey to its own capital magnetism

By John Foley

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Capital is flooding into China, and central bankers are worried. It’s easy to see why: such problems aren’t supposed to happen in countries with strict capital controls. But China’s monetary magnetism is of the authorities’ own making. In trying to slow reckless lending growth, planners have created a huge arbitrage opportunity.

from MacroScope:

Davos Day Two — Rouhani, Lew and Lagarde

Day one in Davos showed the masters of the universe fretting about Sino-Japanese military tensions, the treacherous investment territory in some emerging markets and the risk of a lurch to the right in Europe at May’s parliamentary elections which could make reform of the bloc even harder.

Today, the focus will be on Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (and his main detractor, Israel’s Netanyahu). Presumably he’s there to woo the world of commerce now sanctions are to be relaxed in return for Tehran suspending enrichment of uranium beyond a certain level. Anything he says about Syria’s peace talks, which have so far been more hostile than conciliatory, will instantly be headline news.