Reuters blog archive
from Anatole Kaletsky:
Until this week almost nobody outside Scotland took very seriously the possibility that Europe’s most stable and durable nation, the only big country on earth not to have suffered invasion, revolution or civil war at any time in the past 268 years, might soon be wiped off the map. It now seems quite conceivable, however, that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will cease to exist after the referendum on Scottish independence to be held on September 18.
The prospects for Scotland and Britain changed abruptly on Tuesday when YouGov, one of Britain’s most authoritative polling organizations, published a survey showing the unionist lead narrowing to just 53-47, compared with the margins of 10 to 20 percentage points that were typical of previous polls. So sudden and large was the shift in the numbers that Peter Kellner, the President of YouGov, could hardly believe his own numbers. As he said on his weekly blog:
“Alex Salmond [the Scottish Nationalist leader] seemed to be heading for a heavy defeat…But now a close finish looks likely, and a ‘yes’ victory is a real possibility. When I first saw our data, I wanted to make sure the movement was real. All polls, however carefully conducted, are subject to sampling error. Can we be sure this rise in support for independence is real? I am now certain it is.”
By tracking how individual voters had changed their minds on the referendum, Kellner concluded that the independence campaign were gaining four voters for every one they were losing, while the unionists were losing two supporters for every one gained. Analyzing the data by party affiliations yielded the same conclusion: the shift in opinion was for real.
from The Great Debate:
As Americans examine the astounding dysfunction of their government, gerrymandering is usually cited as the prime culprit. This narrative offers a compelling villain: venal politicians who draw district boundaries for partisan advantage or to protect their own incumbency.
On the surface, it makes sense that manipulating district lines could be responsible for the increase in non-competitive, non-diverse congressional seats and the rise of ideologues who take radical positions without fear of voter retribution. But this ignores evidence that gerrymandering is only partly responsible for the current partisanship -- and that eliminating it will not address the calamity we are witnessing.
from The Great Debate:
How often these days do we see a political figure liked by both Republicans and Democrats? Not so often that we should fail to notice.
France's ruling conservatives are pressing ahead with a public debate on Islam and secularism on Tuesday despite criticism that it is an excuse to pander to far-right voters ahead of a general election next year. President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP party said in December that it would host a public forum to address fears about Islam's role in French society, following controversy over Muslim street prayers, halal-only restaurants and full-face Islamic veils.
from Tales from the Trail:
The Tea Party is coming to Washington to turn up the heat on the Congress -- just as a new poll finds that public support for it has waned.
Members of the conservative Tea Party movement plan to hold a rally on Thursday outside the U.S. Capitol, urging Republicans to stand firm in their showdown with Democrats over proposed spending cuts.
Four hundred rabbis published a letter on Thursday calling on Fox News to sanction host Glenn Beck for repeated use of Nazi and Holocaust imagery and for airing attacks on World War Two survivor George Soros.
In an open letter to Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of News Corp, which owns Fox, the rabbis also demand an apology from Fox News chief Roger Ailes for characterizing Beck's Jewish critics as nothing more than "left-wing rabbis."
Prejudice against Muslims has "passed the dinner-table test" and become socially acceptable in Britain, says the Conservative Party's chairwoman Baroness Sayeeda Warsi.
Warsi, a Pakistan-born minister without portfolio in Prime Minister David Cameron's cabinet, will say in a speech at the University of Leicester on Thursday evening that dividing Muslims into "moderate" and "extremist" fuels intolerance, according to prepared remarks published in the Daily Telegraph.
The conservative Christian, Washington-based Family Research Council (FRC) has just released its first "Annual Index of Family Belonging and Rejection." You can click here to see its full details.
The "Index of Belonging" is 45 percent and that of "Rejection" is 55 percent. The report's author, Patrick Fagan, who heads FRC's Marriage and Religion Research Institute, says the following:
Indices are all the rage these days. In his recently published and thought-provoking "Why the West Rules -- For Now," historian Ian Morris has created an "index on social development" which, among other things, attempts to measure the West and East's "energy capture."
There are of course plenty of other examples (and future historians will no doubt see it as a sign of our times -- as Morris notes, ages get the "thought they need"). The latest addition to this swelling modern family of indices will come on Wednesday when the conservative, Washington-based Family Research Council (FRC) releases its first annual "Index of Family Belonging and Rejection." The index is a product of its Marriage and Religion Research Institute.
One little-reported aspect of the political wrangling around attempts to repeal the "don't ask, don't tell" policy that bans gays from serving openly in the U.S. military was how the religious right tied it to another hot-button cultural issue: abortion.
This would certainly have caught the attention of socially conservative Republicans who were instrumental in defeating a measure aimed at its repeal in the U.S. Senate on Thursday night.