from MacroScope:

Whatever it takes or whatever it can get away with?

By Mike Peacock
January 14, 2015

ECB President Draghi addresses during ECB news conference in Frankfurt

Markets are beginning to ponder just how definitive the European Central Bank may be next week in launching quantitative easing. One reason is today’s ruling at the European Court of Justice.

from MacroScope:

Major central banks set to go their own way, with some risk

January 9, 2015

Real interest rates of world's major central banks

Real interest rates of world's major central banks

The world's major central banks have long followed the same general flight path, guided by the economic winds of growth, inflation and financial markets. It has worked pretty well for policymakers in the United States, Europe, Japan, and the United Kingdom: moving together to tighten or loosen monetary policy makes things more predictable for citizens, businesses and investors. It also serves as buffer to any volatile currency movements, at least among developed economies. But six years after the worst recession in decades, this could be the year central bankers split off and - with some risk - go their own way.

from MacroScope:

Sub-zero inflation

By Mike Peacock
January 7, 2015

A sign announcing a discount is pictured at an Electroniki retail chain shop in Athens

Following a dramatic fall in the price of oil, now down at $50 per barrel from above $115 in the middle of last year, euro zone inflation figures for December are likely to turn negative for the first time since 2009.

from MacroScope:

No inflation, not much growth

By Mike Peacock
January 6, 2015

A metal sculpture depicting a stock exchange chart is seen in the reception hall of the Athens Stock Exchange in Athens

Euro zone service sector PMI readings for December are unlikely to alter European Central Bank thinking about taking the ultimate policy leap and commencing a quantitative easing government bond-buying programme, possibly at its Jan. 22 meeting.

from Unstructured Finance:

Jeffrey Gundlach, on his year as new ‘King of Bonds’

By Jennifer Ablan
December 15, 2014

Gundlach, star bond investor and head of DoubleLine Capital LP,  is photographed during an interview in New YorkWhen Bill Gross shocked the investment world on Sept. 26 by storming out of Pimco, the most prominent bond investor in the world didn’t stop leaving people stunned.
It was later revealed by Reuters that Gross had paid an unlikely visit to his fiercest rival: Jeffrey Gundlach.
For two decades, the two had no relationship or interaction at all, even though their personas were intertwined, compared and contrasted often in the financial media and by other bond market players. (Morningstar named Gross "Fixed Income Manager of the Decade" in 2010, an award for which Gundlach was a finalist. Then in 2011, Barron's magazine anointed Gundlach as the new King of Bonds.)
Gross not only unexpectedly departed his firm for under-the-radar Janus Capital but also considered joining Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital. Gundlach said the so-called “Dream Team” didn’t work out but “you never know what will happen in the future.”
Overall, the gesture by Gross officially affirmed the investment world’s long-held view that Gundlach had been anointed the new Bond King.
What follows are excerpts of my hour-long interview – unfortunately, not on the north loggia of Gundlach's Los Angeles home -- about Gundlach’s investment calls (old and news ones), his competitors, the future of fixed income and his firm’s fifth year anniversary which was celebrated on Sunday.

from MacroScope:

Eyes on Weidmann for Draghi pushback

By Mike Peacock
December 5, 2014

Deutsche Bundesbank President Weidmann arrives for the annual news conference in Frankfurt

Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and his Italian counterpart, Pier Carlo Padoan, all speak at a conference in Frankfurt today.

from MacroScope:

ECB QE drifts from if to when, say many analysts

December 4, 2014

RTR3OB5X.jpgSerious deflation risks in the euro zone mean it is no longer a question of if, but when the ECB will purchase sovereign bonds -- at least among many of those who are paid to forecast policy.

from MacroScope:

Draghi to talk the talk, no walk yet

By Mike Peacock
December 4, 2014

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The European Central Bank meets today with the debate about quantitative easing running hot after Mario Draghi declared “excessively low” inflation had to be raised fast and that the ECB would act more forcefully if its existing efforts to pump money into the ailing euro zone economy fall short.

from MacroScope:

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan's recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

What’s Europe’s best hope for avoiding a second euro crisis?

By Anatole Kaletsky
August 29, 2014

RTR3WYER.jpg

This week’s theatrical resignation threat by Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, combined with deep European anxiety about deflation, suggest that the euro crisis may be coming back. But a crisis is often an opportunity, and this is the hope now beginning to excite markets in the eurozone.