from MacroScope:

Huge miss on Japan GDP suggests more forecasting complacency

November 17, 2014

BWhile few people have had serious hopes for a prolonged Japanese economic boom for a long time, the range of forecasts provided for Japan's recent economic performance gives you an idea of just how wildly unexpected the news was today that it is back in recession.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

What’s Europe’s best hope for avoiding a second euro crisis?

By Anatole Kaletsky
August 29, 2014

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This week’s theatrical resignation threat by Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, combined with deep European anxiety about deflation, suggest that the euro crisis may be coming back. But a crisis is often an opportunity, and this is the hope now beginning to excite markets in the eurozone.

from MacroScope:

Another month, another downside surprise on euro zone inflation

July 31, 2014

sale signsNobody except a born pessimist ever expects a bad situation to get incrementally worse.

from MacroScope:

Euro zone inflation to fall further?

By Mike Peacock
July 31, 2014

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Euro zone inflation is the big figure of the day. The consensus forecast is it for hold at a paltry 0.5 percent. Germany’s rate came in as predicted at 0.8 percent on Wednesday but Spain’s was well short at -0.3 percent. So there is clearly a risk that inflation for the currency bloc as a whole falls even further.

from MacroScope:

Deflating euro zone inflation expectations

July 1, 2014

EThe euro zone is not deflating, it's just at risk of a too-prolonged period of low inflation, says European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

from MacroScope:

Clock ticking

By Mike Peacock
June 30, 2014

Amid all the furore over David Cameron’s failure to block Jean-Claude Juncker for the top EU job at a summit last week, the bloc’s leaders signed a free-trade pact with Ukraine and said they could impose more sanctions on Russia unless rebels de-escalate in the east of the country by Monday.

from MacroScope:

EU’s top two — oh to be a fly on the wall

By Mike Peacock
June 11, 2014

Who are the two most important people in the EU? It’s hard to argue against Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi and they meet today in Berlin.

from MacroScope:

Euro zone inflation data to set seal on ECB action

By Mike Peacock
June 3, 2014

Euro zone inflation – due at 0900 GMT - is forecast to hold at a paltry 0.7 percent in May, in what European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has labelled the danger zone below 1.0 percent for the eighth successive month.

from MacroScope:

Gas talks resume

By Mike Peacock
May 30, 2014

Fresh talks between Russia, Ukraine and the European Commission in Berlin will aim to resolve a gas price dispute that Moscow has warned could make it cut off supplies next week.

from MacroScope:

Prepare for a razor-thin rate cut from the ECB in June. But what will it achieve?

May 9, 2014

RTR3OBCB.jpgA consensus appears to be slowly building for a carpaccio-slice interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next month.