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from The Great Debate:
The dark side of bank dividends
In April, U.S. banks dusted off the dividend again, a trick they’d mostly abandoned during the financial crisis. JPMorgan Chase plans an 8-cent-per-share hike. Wells Fargo’s will be 5 cents. Same for Morgan Stanley. Bank of America will raise its dividend a penny. Some might celebrate the move: The banks are back! But there’s more to it. In this fairly anemic economy, dividends are yet another strategic, if counterintuitive, hedge that won’t get our loved and loathed financial institutions lending again anytime soon.
Although good news for shareholders, the payouts don't mask the reality that banks are still unstable. Executives are scared of looming regulatory schemes, such as the Brown-Vitter bill in the Senate, that could raise equity requirements to cushion the excessive debt of borrowing-prone banks. While earnings are up, balance sheets are deceptive. The big banks still rely heavily on income from the stock market, which overall has been stronger, and take in about $83 billion in subsidies. Their equity and cash reserves are a tiny fraction of their debt.
The banking sector certainly seemed more robust in the first quarter. Take JPMorgan Chase. It was solid enough to purchase $2.6 billion in stocks and $6 billion in buybacks, but its $25.12 billion in revenue was weaker than expected. The bank crowed that is the nation’s No. 1 Small Business Association lender, with a 10 percent increase from the same period last year. But commercial loan growth overall slowed to 1.2 percent in the first quarter compared with 3.6 percent in the first quarter, while consumer loans declined 4.2 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. Mortgage revenue was down 31 percent. According to one estimate, the bank’s $440 million annual subsidy paid 40 percent of its last dividend, which was about $1.1 billion.
That’s where dividends come in handy. As even a novice stock trader knows, they project an aura of confidence and stability. When shareholders are rewarded with swag, the banks signal confidence that operations are back to normal. Like clockwork, shortly after the banks’ announcements, analysts recommended that investors buy JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and other financial stocks.
from Reihan Salam:
To create growth, unleash the invisible foot
Across the political spectrum, there is a growing recognition that while short-term battles over government spending are important, they would be far less ferocious and intense if our economy were growing at a faster clip. But while conservatives and liberals alike clamor for more growth, they disagree about how to produce it. The key is unleashing what the economist Joseph Berliner once called the “Invisible Foot,” the neglected counterpart to Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand.”
Before we turn to the Invisible Foot, let’s think through the prescriptions for growth offered by Democrats and Republicans. President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies often argue that substantial increases in public investment will deliver robust growth. Republicans, in contrast, emphasize the notion that reductions in marginal tax rates will spur growth by increasing the incentives to work and invest. These approaches are obviously far apart, yet they face at least two common obstacles. First, the aging of the population and the high cost of health entitlements severely limit the government’s ability to increase spending or cut taxes. Second, advanced economies have by definition already taken advantage of the most obvious sources of productivity growth and so are forced to innovate to find new sources of productivity growth. And innovation is a trial-and-error process that is far more expensive and arduous than simply following the leader.
from Breakingviews:
Dividend reform won’t fix China SOE money-go-round
By John Foley
(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)
China’s elaborate money-go-round starts and ends with its cash-hoarding state-owned enterprises. So a plan to make them pay bigger dividends sounds promising. Still, if the goal is to return cash to the people, there is a long way to go.
from Breakingviews:
The 1 pct find a way to stimulate themselves
By Agnes T. Crane
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
The wealthy in America are creating their own personal stimulus. Special dividends are coming thick and fast. Oracle’s Larry Ellison and the Walton family of Wal-Mart Stores are among the noteworthy beneficiaries. Payouts have potentially saved recipients billions in taxes so far. Uncle Sam might have put that to work fixing infrastructure.
from Breakingviews:
Corporate America fears taxes more than recession
President Barack Obama is seeking input from Corporate America on the so-called fiscal cliff. But whatever company honchos may be saying about the risk of recession in 2013 if tax hikes and spending cuts kick in on Jan. 1, it looks as if they actually fear higher taxes more than a downturn.
Exhibit A is the recent flurry of special dividends, including a $3 billion whopper announced on Wednesday by warehouse retailer Costco. Data group Markit says 112 firms so far this quarter have already pulled the trigger on special dividends. They include casino operator Las Vegas Sands, which will send more than $1 billion to Mitt Romney’s pal Sheldon Adelson, his wife and the trusts the billionaire controls. Markit expects 20 more firms to do something similar before the year is through.
from The Great Debate:
When customers are angry, how do companies justify shareholder payouts?
As tens of thousands in the New York metropolitan area remain powerless amid a massive cleanup campaign after Hurricane Sandy hit the region, Consolidated Edison, the utility that powers about 3.3 million customers in New York City and Westchester County, reported earnings and reaffirmed its guidance for 2012. Kevin Burke, Con Ed’s chairman and chief executive officer, said that the company was devoting all its resources to aiding Sandy’s victims. The company’s bottom line, though, seems secure, despite the costs of cleanup.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has promised that regulators will scrutinize Con Ed’s preparations for Sandy, as well as its subsequent attempts to restore power in the New York City region after the hurricane. Con Ed operates as a regulated monopoly in the region and owns extensive infrastructure that no competitor could duplicate. Not only would it be far too expensive for any potential rival to enter Con Ed’s territory, it would be impossible because of the logistics of ripping up many sections of the city to install new underground lines and then hook them up to every building. The few competitors Con Ed has use the giant’s grid to deliver power.
from Global Investing:
Yield-hungry tilt to equity from credit
For income-focused investors, the choice between stocks and corporate bonds has been a no-brainer in recent years. In a volatile world, corporate debt tends to be less sensitive to market gyrations and also has offered better yields -- last year non-financial European corporate bonds provided a yield pickup of 73 basis points above stocks, Morgan Stanley calculates.
But, long a fan of credit over equity, MS reckons the picture may now be changing and points out that European equities are offering better yields than credit for the first time in over a decade. (The graphic below compares dividend yields on non-financial euro STOXX index with the IBOXX European non-financial corporate bond index. The former narrowly wins.)
from The Great Debate:
Why the bank dividends are a bad idea
On the basis of "stress tests" it ran, the Federal Reserve has given permission to most of the largest U.S. banks to "return capital" to their shareholders. JPMorgan Chase announced that it would buy back as much as $15 billion of its stock and raise its quarterly dividend to 30 cents a share, up from 25 cents a share.
Allowing the payouts to equity is misguided. It exposes the economy to unnecessary risks without valid justification.
from Global Investing:
Discovering the pleasure of dividends in Russia
American financier J.D. Rockefeller said watching dividends rolling in was the only thing that gave him pleasure. But it is a pleasure which until now has largely bypassed shareholders in most big Russian companies. That might be about to change.
Russian firms, especially the big commodity producers, are generally seen as poor dividend payers. So dividend yields, the ratio of dividends to the share price, have been unattractive.
from Breakingviews:
Missing at the New York Times – a dividend?
By Agnes Crane
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
The New York Times Co has regrouped since flirting with oblivion three years ago. The company looks ready for a deeper digital dive. But before it can take that plunge, the firm may need to pay its dues to its controlling family.
The Ochs-Sulzberger clan has stood by the Gray Lady in her time of need. But it has been nearly three years since the company paid a dividend - a flow that in 2007 poured nearly $25 million into the various family members’ coffers. The Times’ fortunes, though still challenging, have taken a turn for the better. It paid off an onerous $250 million loan ahead of schedule, shed assets like a stake in the Boston Red Sox, and plans to unload 16 regional newspapers.
