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from Global Investing:

Research Radar: Greek gloom

Greek gloom dominates the start of the week as new elections there look inevitable and talk of Greek euro exit, or a Grexit" as common market parlance now has it, mounts. All risk assets and securities hinged on global growth have been hit, with China's weekend reserve ratio easing doing little to offset gloomy data from world's second biggest economy at the end of last week. World stocks are down heavily and emerging markets are underperforming; the euro has fallen to near 4-month lows below $1.29; safe haven core government debt is bid as euro peripheral debt yields in Italy and Spain push higher; and global growth bellwethers such as crude oil and the Australian dollar are down - the latter below parity against the US dollar for the first time in 5 months.

Financial research reports on Monday and over the weekend were just as gloomy, but plenty of interesting takes:

Bank of New York Mellon's Simon Derrick's view of the Greek political impasse concluded "there is at least an evens chance that the latter part of this summer will see what had officially been seen up until last November as an impossibility: a nation leaving the EUR."

RBS's Sanjay Mathur reckons that if there is another hung parliament after new Greek elections, implying no significant voter return to the pro-bailout parties, then euro risk soars.  "This means, on another hung parliament, that Greek government IOUs could trade as proxy currency as early as July." If that does not galvanize sufficient parties into accepting Trioka bailout demands at that point, he said that then exit looms. "Opening up the Pandora's box of exit means deposit risk across the periphery. The future of the euro would then be dictated by the subsequent policy response."

Barclays Sree Kochugovindan talks of a three phase possible deterioration of the euro crisis -- one, where solvency concerns and asset market fright are contained to Europe and mostly the fixed income markets of the periphery countries concerned; two, solvency concerns hit the core such as France and Belgium with asset market contagion widening before a series of major policy responses; and three, no major policy response or ECB SMP/LTRO, which leads to Greek default and even exit and global market shock akin to September 2008. "Given the immense cost of a crisis triggered by a Greek exit, we are not expecting the current situation to deteriorate into Phase 2. However, the risks are elevated and with the prospect of second round Greek elections in a few weeks, market jitters are likely to continue."

Deutsche Bank's global markets note also focuses on rising risks from Greece and also on the May 31 Irish referendum on the EU fiscal pact. Apart from outlining obvious risks to the Greek financing from a political vacuum, one conclusion Deutsche comes to is that a new EU growth pact may happen sooner than many had figured. "The new situation in Athens forces EU leaders to find common ground faster than we thought." Another conclusion was that Ireland may consider postponing its referendum, given the risk that a "no" vote may disastrously cut off its access to new EU funds and also given a possible delay in German parliamentary votes on the fiscal deal to June. "Ireland might do well to think about postponing the 31 May referendum." It called Spain's sweeping banking reform plan "making progress" but a 15 bln euro government recapitalisaation of the banks "too timid".

HSBC's Karen Ward and Simon Wells warn about the long-term impact of continuous quantitative easing by central banks, saying the political relationship between central banks and governments rather than inflationary consequences may be the biggest concern. "The heyday of independent central banking could be drawing to a close."

from Global Investing:

Three snapshots for Thursday

The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold on Thursday.  President Mario Draghi urged euro zone governments to agree a growth strategy to go hand in hand with fiscal discipline, but as thousands of Spaniards protested in the streets he gave no sign the bank would do more to address people's fears about the economy

The divergence between Euro zone countries is starting to impact analyst estimates for earnings. As this chart shows earnings forecasts for Spain and Portugal are seeing more downgrades than Germany or France.

The inflation rate in Turkey rose to 11.1% in April, putting pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates:

from Global Investing:

Three snapshots for Monday

The euro zone's business slump deepened at a far faster pace than expected in April, suggesting the economy will stay in recession at least until the second half of the year. The euro zone's manufacturing PMI came in below all forecasts from a Reuters poll of  economists, plumbing 46.0 in April - its lowest reading since June 2009. Weak PMI numbers are a bad sign for economic growth (see chart) but also for earnings:

Reuters reports that the Dutch government will resign on Monday in a crisis over budget cuts, spelling the end of a coalition which has strongly backed a European Union fiscal treaty and lectured Greece on getting its finances in order. As this overview shows the Dutch economy looks in better shape than many in the euro zone but is still finding austerity measures difficult to pass.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy appealed directly to far right voters on Monday with pledges to get tough on immigration and security, after a record showing in a first round election by the National Front made them potential kingmakers. See how the votes may transfer from 1st to 2nd round in this interactive calculator (click here).

from Global Investing:

Three snapshots for Friday

Although the focus has been on Spanish debt auctions this week as this chart shows Italy has much further to go in meeting this year's funding needs.

German business sentiment rose unexpectedly for the fifth month in a row in March, moving in the opposite direction to the composite PMI:

Greg Harrison points out 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten their Q1 earnings estimates so far. It  is early days but it it continues that would be the highest for at least five years. Is this a sign that the strength in corporate earnings in continuing? The chart below suggests as least part may be due to falling expectations coming into earnings season.

from Scott Barber:

Strong start to U.S. earnings season?

Greg Harrison points out 82% of S&P 500 companies have beaten their Q1 earnings estimates so far. It  is early days but it it continues that would be the highest for at least five years.

Is this a sign that the strength in corporate earnings in continuing? The chart below suggests as least part may be due to falling expectations coming into earnings season.

from Breakingviews:

Goldman should relish being lost in crowd for now

By Antony Currie The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions epxressed are his own. For a firm like Goldman Sachs that is so used to standing out from the crowd, the prospect of being in the middle of the pack must grate beyond belief. But after a spate of governance and image problems, executives at the investment bank should relish its first-quarter results getting lost in the crowd.

Goldman managed an annualized return on equity of 12.2 percent. That’s bang in line with universal banking rivals JPMorgan and Wells Fargo - and with what Citi’s core business appears to have achieved. But its first quarter fell short of JPMorgan’s investment bank, which, after stripping out the accounting hit on its own debt, cranked out a 23 percent ROE.

The comparison isn’t perfect. JPMorgan’s unit doesn’t carry the costs of the entire group. But other measures support the differences. Based on the imprecise value-at-risk metric, Goldman decreased its overall risk appetite to start the year while JPMorgan’s increased slightly. And with its larger balance sheet and lending relationships, Jamie Dimon’s bank may have benefited more from the sharp uptick in trading in interest-rate-sensitive businesses.

Goldman’s prudent approach probably translated into lower revenue than traders might otherwise have generated. But the result also could offset some concerns that the bank led by Lloyd Blankfein treats clients like muppets, an accusation leveled by a mid-level employee in a stinging and public letter of resignation.

Governments, which haven’t always been happy with Goldman’s actions, should at least be pleased with the latest figures. A third of the bank’s earnings were allocated to global state coffers, far more than its 18.7 percent tax rate in the previous quarter. Compensation, at 44 percent of revenue, is still higher than some peers. That arguably shortchanges shareholders - but Goldman’s board, which recently flouted good governance with its choice of a lead director - also opted to hand them a greater share of profit by raising the dividend by almost a third.

This not-too-hot, not-too cold earnings dish is decidedly average. But the lack of much, if anything, to pick on also must provide a welcome respite for Goldman.

from Breakingviews:

Wall Street hangs in limbo despite market rebound

By Antony Currie

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Wall Street shouldn’t get too excited about the latest recovery. Helped in part by a more stable Europe, investment banks have started 2012 far better than they ended 2011. They probably raked in more revenue in all areas but M&A and buying and selling equities in the first three months of the year. But false dawns have marked each of the past two years. And even if this comeback sticks, most firms will need considerably more trading and deal-making to earn decent returns.

That isn’t to say the recent improvement can be sniffed at. Fees in the first quarter from selling new bond deals shot up a whopping 87 percent from the end of the year, according to Thomson Reuters data, as investors piled back into riskier securities like high-yield debt. Improving markets also pumped up asset prices, meaning banks should - hedges permitting - record some gains on their balance sheets.

This effect in turn spurred greater fixed-income trading revenue - average daily trading volume in U.S. high-grade debt jumped 40 percent, according to Trace data. Even compensation for arranging equity deals improved, rising 27 percent, despite a lackluster market for initial public offerings.

Everything isn’t rosy, however. Fees from completed mergers fell by a quarter, U.S. equity trading volume was 8 percent lower and banks will again have to take annoying hits to revenue because of improvements in their own liabilities. Even allowing for these, net income should be much improved. Jefferies, for example, posted a 60 percent increase in earnings on a one-third jump in revenue for the three months to February.

But it will still leave most banks almost certainly wallowing in mediocrity. Jefferies eked out only a 9.5 percent return on equity, probably below its cost of capital. And Goldman Sachs may generate a mere 11 percent return even though FICC revenue could almost treble to $3.7 billion, analysts at Credit Suisse estimate.

from Global Investing:

Three snapshots for Tuesday

The German ZEW economic sentiment index for March smashed expectations, coming in at 22.3 against the Reuters poll of 10.0.  Over the last couple of years the German 10 year Bund yield has tended to track the ZEW, however this has broken down with yields staying below 2% despite the rebound in economic sentiment.

Improving earnings momentum has been backing up the rally in equities with fewer analysts taking the hatchet to earnings forecasts. The chart below shows that the 3-month average revisions ratio (the number of earnings  upgrades minus downgrades as a percent of the total) looks to have turned back towards positive - especially in Europe.

Are emerging markets joining the dividend race?.   As this chart of Datastream equity indices shows, the payout ratio for emerging market equities is now above that of the US. Traditionally seen as a growth-based investment, is this another sign of emerging market equities moving closer into line with developed?

from Global Investing:

Becoming less negative on Europe

Markets are unimpressed today by Europe finally agreeing to bail out Greece for the second time, with European stocks down -0.6% on the day.

But here's some encouraging news: Credit Suisse has become less negative on Continental European stocks for the first time in almost two years.

The bank has moved to benchmark weighting from 5% underweight for a currency hedged portfolio.

Why?

We think that the ECB is increasingly dovish (and we would not rule out another three-year LTRO after the one on 29 February), which should help weaken the euro; and we now only expect a 1% decline in European credit (down from our previous estimate of a 5% decline); relative to other regions, economic momentum and earnings momentum have troughed. But there is not enough for us to raise weightings to overweight.

In CS's earnings momentum scorecard, Europe ex-UK  has moved up one place, off the bottom of the list, with a total score of -0.1 -- above Japan's -1.2.

On previous occasions when relative Continental European earnings revisions have troughed, Europe ex UK equities have on average outperformed 75% of the time and when they did outperform, it was by 3–5% in the next three to six months (in local currency terms).

from Global Investing:

January in the rearview mirror

As January 2012 drifts into the rearview mirror as a bumper month for world markets, one way to capture the year so far is in pictures - thanks to Scott Barber and our graphics team.

The driving force behind the market surge was clearly the latest liquidity/monetary stimuli from the world's central banks.

The ECB's near half trillion euros of 3-year loans  has stabilised Europe's ailing banks by flooding them with cheap cash for much lower quality collateral. In the process, it's also opened up critical funding windows for the banks and allowed some reinvestment of the ECB loans into cash-strapped euro zone goverments. That in turn has seen most euro government borrowing rates fall. It's also allowed other corporates to come to the capital markets and JP Morgan estimates that euro zone corporate bond sales in January totalled 46 billion euros, the same last year and split equally between financials and non-financials..

But to the extent that the ECB move was aimed primarily at preventing a seizure of the banks, then one measure of  success can be seen in the degree to which it steepened government yield curves in Spain and Italy. A positive yield curve, which measures the gap between short-term  and long-term interest rates,  is effectively commercial banks' ATM -- they  make money by simply borrowing short-term and lending long. This chart then shows some normality returning to the benchmark interest structure.