Reuters blog archive
from Hugo Dixon:
By Hugo Dixon
Hugo Dixon is Editor-at-Large, Reuters News. The opinions expressed are his own.
The UK faces an unpalatable choice in next May’s general election. The Labour opposition, which is currently ahead in the polls, has a somewhat anti-business agenda. Meanwhile, the Conservatives want to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. If the people vote to quit the EU, industry will lose full access to its biggest external market.
To many in business, the choice seems like one between the devil and the deep blue sea. It’s not quite that bad. But Britain risks being stuck with a government that damages its economy.
Look first at Labour, whose annual conference was held last week. Ed Miliband, its leader and quite possibly Britain’s next prime minister, isn’t quite an old-style socialist. But he doesn’t understand enterprise, business or markets in the way that Tony Blair, the former Labour leader, did.
By Robyn Mak and John Foley
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.
Hong Kong’s experiment in orderly disorder is coming unstuck. Thousands of protestors took to the streets on Sept. 29 calling for political reform and universal suffrage, and many still remain a day later. Markets are open, and the financial sector hasn’t taken any direct hits. But what started as a meticulously planned act of civil disobedience now risks spiralling into something more volatile and unpredictable, with damaging long term-implications for the city.
from Morning Bid:
The idea of increased political risk when it comes to the U.S. markets has been mined before, and it’s true that the uncertainty that surrounds debates such as the renewal of the Export-Import Bank’s charter and the growing expectation that Republicans, should they take power in November in the Senate, could force another confrontation over the debt ceiling. That said, political risk in the U.S. isn’t anything when compared with Brazil as the largest South American economy gears up for its presidential election, a contest between current president Dilma Rousseff and environmentalist Marina Silva, who until last month wasn’t even running (she was the vice presidential candidate for her party, whose original candidate was killed in a plane crash).
It’s an understatement to say the markets aren’t a fan of Rousseff, who hasn’t been able to bring the country out of its current economic rut – in fact, a chart of the Bovespa stock market makes it an easy one to pick out pivot points in the election race. In a two-week stretch following the death of Eduardo Campos, the Bovespa jumped more than 11 percent as investors started to see Silva as the candidate more likely to take out Rousseff (the other candidate, Aecio Neves, has seen his support slowly erode as Silva emerged as a popular choice).
By Martin Hutchinson and Richard Beales
The authors are Breakingviews columnists. All opinions expressed are their own.
Add Marina Silva to the challenges facing Dilma Rousseff. Brazil’s president faces a new opposition candidate in October’s election after Eduardo Campos’ death in a plane crash, and Silva looks a far bigger threat. If she ousts Rousseff, which polls show is possible, Brazil could gain economically from less state meddling.
By Stephanie Rogan
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
Paul Ryan has written a book, just like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama before him. Unlike those of his Democratic rivals, though, the U.S. congressman and former vice presidential candidate’s is less memoir than campaign manifesto. Ryan’s fiscal prescriptions are familiar, but it’s also obvious he is trying to find a broader audience for them. Though it’s tempting to dismiss “The Way Forward” as just the musings of another presidential wannabe, the book’s title probably accurately reflects the notion that its contents will guide the Republican strategy in the years to come.
A day before the European Central Bank’s monthly policy meeting, ECB President Mario Draghi will travel to Luxembourg for talks with incoming European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. Oh to be a fly on the wall.
Some in the ECB are concerned that ultra-low sovereign borrowing costs and Draghi’s “whatever it takes” promise has relieved pressure on euro zone governments to carry on with structural economic reforms.
Juncker has signalled he is comfortable with a Franco-Italian drive to focus on growth and job creation rather than cutting debt.
from The Great Debate UK:
--Stephen Evans is a former Senior Policy Advisor for HM Treasury and Director of Employment and Skills at Working Links. The opinions expressed are his own.--
Asking prices for London houses have risen by £80,000 since the start of 2014 according to Rightmove. A three-bedroom house in London increases in value more each day than the average Londoner earns, a sobering thought on your daily commute. These are just the latest startling figures on house prices, particularly in London and the South East, prompting concern from Mark Carney and all three major political parties.
from Nicholas Wapshott:
Democracy is taking a bashing. On almost every continent, attempts to extend the right of people to choose their own government is running into deep trouble. In Iraq, Egypt, Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and many other countries, democracy is being overwhelmed by despotism and despair.
A commonly heard response is that Western democracy is not for everyone, that what works in our society does not automatically work elsewhere. Another is to suggest that we should not try to spread democracy to the rest of the world; it is none of our business.
The ripples of EU election results are being felt, no more so than in France where the National Front topped the poll.
The day after the results, Prime Minister Manuel Valls promised further tax cuts for French households. The government is already committed to a 30 billion euros cut in labour taxes to help business but insists all this can be done while meeting its EU deficit commitments.
By James Hoffa
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews guest columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Companies increasingly are playing an outsized role in U.S. elections. In many cases, they donate money to advocate controversial policies that could antagonize their customers and undermine their businesses. Because so many of these contributions are not disclosed, however, shareholders are left in the dark and unable to evaluate potential conflicts or risks.