from Breakingviews:

Europe slides towards the next Minsky Moment

May 19, 2014

By Neil Unmack

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from Breakingviews:

Euro crisis 2.0 will need a new shock absorber

April 4, 2014

By Neil Unmack and George Hay

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.

from Global Investing:

Weekly Radar: Elections and housing in last big week of 2012

December 13, 2012

So an extra dose of medicine from the Fed on Wednesday helps smother global market volatility further into the yearend -- even though naming an explicit 6.5% unemployment rate could well send Treasury bond volatility soaring as the current 7.7% rate likely approaches that level in 2014 just as the Fed low-rate pledge expires. Not a story for early next year maybe, but...

from Global Investing:

Weekly Radar: China and Fed steal the show

December 6, 2012

Even though US cliff talks remain unresolved, many of the edges have been taken off seasonal yearend jitters elsewhere. Euro pressures have been kept under wraps since the Greek deal,  the possibility of yet another Fed QE manoeuvre next Wednesday is back in play and a significant pulse has been recorded in the global economy via the latest PMIs - thanks in large part to China and the US service sector.US payrolls loom again tomorrow, but the picture is one of stabilisation if not full-scale recovery.

from Breakingviews:

Spain’s bank rescue is part bail-in, part bail-out

November 29, 2012

By George Hay and Neil Unmack

The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own

from Global Investing:

Weekly Radar: Bounceback as year winds down

November 22, 2012

Yet another Greek impasse, a French downgrade, ongoing DC cliff dodging and a downturn in Citi's G10 economic surprise index (though not yet in the US one) could have been plausible reasons this week to extend the post-election global markets swoon. But at 8 consecutive days in the red up to last Friday, that was the longest losing streak since last November, and a lot of froth had been shaken off these year-end markets already.

from Global Investing:

Weekly Radar: In the shadow of the cliff

November 15, 2012

It’s been another rum old week market-wise, with global stocks off another 2 percent or more and recording seven straight days in the red for the first time since August. Throw any spin you like at the reasoning, but the pretty predictable post-election hiatus on U.S. fiscal cliff worries now seem to be front and centre of everything. And that will just has to play itself out now, leaving markets stuck in this funk until they come up with the fix. The running consensus still seems to be that some solution will be reached, but no one wants to be too brave about it. And given the cliff is one of the few good explanations for the sharp divergence between the equity market and still rising US economic surprises,  you can see why many feel the US fiscal standoff is merely delaying a resumption of the rally.

from Breakingviews:

Soft approach sadly best for next Greek debt deal

November 1, 2012

By Neil Unmack

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

from Global Investing:

Weekly Radar: Q3 earnings; China GDP; EU summit; US debate

October 11, 2012

Markets have turned glum again as October gets underway and the northern winter looms, weighed down by a relentless grind of negative commentary even if there’s been little really new information to digest. The net loss on MSCI's world stock market index over the past seven days is a fairly restrained 1.5%, though we are now back down to early September levels. Debt markets have been better behaved. The likes of Spain’s 10-year yields are virtually unchanged over the past week amid all the rolling huff and puff from euroland. The official argument that Spain doesn’t need a bailout at these yield levels is backed up by analysis that shows even at the peak of the latest crisis in July average Spanish sovereign borrowing costs were still lower than pre-crisis days of 2006.  But with ratings downgrades still in the mix, it looks like a bit of a cat-and-mouse game for some time yet. Ten-year US Treasury yields, meantime, have nudged back higher again after the strong September US employment report and are hardly a sign of suddenly cratering world growth. What's more, oil’s back up above $115 per barrel, with the broader CRB commodities index actually up over the past week. This contains no good news for the world, but if there are genuinely new worries about aggregate world demand, then not everyone in the commodity world has been let in on the 'secret' yet.

from Global Investing:

Euro emigration – safety valve or worker drain?

October 9, 2012

Four years of relentless austerity in many of the euro zone's most debt-hobbled countries have forced many of their youngest and sometimes brightest workers to grab the plane, train or boat and emigrate in search of work. For countries with a long history of emigration, such as Ireland, this is depressingly familar -- coming just 20 years after the country's last debt crisis and national belt-tightening in the 1980s crescendoed, with the exit of some 40,ooo a year in 1989/90 from a population of just 3-1/2 million people.