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from MacroScope:

Euro falling but no impact on inflation yet

Lithuanian 1 euro coins are pictured in the Lithuanian Mint in Vilnius

Euro zone inflation figures are due and after Germany’s rate held steady at 0.8 percent the figure for the currency bloc as a whole could marginally exceed forecasts and hold at 0.4 percent.

One upside for the currency bloc is the falling euro which has broken below its 2013 lows and is down almost nine percent from the peak it hit against the dollar in May. With U.S. money printing about to end next month and speculation intensifying about the timing of a first interest rate rise from Washington, there are good reasons to think that this trend could continue.

If it does, it would push the prices of imports up while making it easier for euro zone countries to sell abroad which should have an upward impact on both growth and inflation. The impact won’t be instant, however, as today’s figures will demonstrate.

Either way, there is no chance of the European Central Bank doing anything new at its monthly meeting on Thursday having pushed through a range of new measures last time.

from Breakingviews:

Euro has further to fall

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Euro zone inflation is too low, and economic activity sluggish. But at least one thing is going the European Central Bank’s way. Its hankering for a weaker currency will be fully gratified.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

What’s Europe’s best hope for avoiding a second euro crisis?

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This week’s theatrical resignation threat by Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, combined with deep European anxiety about deflation, suggest that the euro crisis may be coming back. But a crisis is often an opportunity, and this is the hope now beginning to excite markets in the eurozone.

Investors and business leaders are asking themselves three questions: Will European governments and the European Central Bank recognize the unexpected weakness of the eurozone economy as an opportunity to change course? If they do, will they know how to grasp it? And will they be allowed to do what is necessary by the true economic sovereign of Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel?

from Counterparties:

MORNING BID – European Deflation

Never say the Europeans aren’t cautious. The dollar has been on a roll of late, in part because of the market’s growing expectation for more stimulus from the European Central Bank before long that would include some kind of larger-scale quantitative easing program after a speech last week from Mario Draghi that European markets seem to still be reacting to several days later. Reuters, however, reported that the ECB isn’t quite likely to do move quite so fast (heard this one before) and that took some of the wind out of the dollar’s sails and boosted the euro a bit.

Some of the move in the euro will depend on the trend in European yields, where everything is going down – German Bunds continue to make their way rapidly toward zero, and Bund futures remain in an overwhelming bullish trend, per data from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Analysts there also anticipate the dollar is going to experience some kind of medium-term correction – but remains in rally mode otherwise. There’s a headwind there for equities from that – rising greenback makes U.S. goods more expensive, but the gains are still only in earlier stages, and haven’t pushed into territory that would otherwise indicate surprising strength that we haven’t seen in some time.

from Breakingviews:

German yield curve is the safest one to play

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

 Bull flattening may sound like an exotic, and rather cruel, sport, but for today’s bond investor, it describes an investment opportunity. Some juicy bear flattening is also available, although it comes with somewhat more risk.

from Breakingviews:

“Seller beware” when profiting from market calm

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Seller beware. That is an unusual warning, but it applies right now to the options market. Sellers of protection against large price moves have been pocketing gains. But many will suffer losses if markets become less calm.

from Breakingviews:

French persist in dead-end strong-euro moaning

By Pierre Briançon

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Once again, a senior executive of Airbus  is complaining about the euro’s strength. Fabrice Brégier, the pan-European aircraft maker's current boss, told the Financial Times that the European Central Bank should do something about the “crazy” currency, the strength of which is hurting earnings. A few years ago it was Louis Gallois, then chief executive of Airbus’ parent EADS, who regularly vented his frustration with the central bank. Curiously, those complaints are never heard when Airbus or EADS is headed by a German executive.

from Expert Zone:

Currencies and the collapse of globalisation

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters)

We live in stirring times. The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, crossed the monetary policy Rubicon and cut one of the euro area’s key interest rates into negative territory. This is dramatic stuff, as even the most economically oblivious are likely to recognise that negative interest rates are a radical policy.A picture illustration of Euro banknotes and coins taken in central Bosnian town of Zenica

At the same time, the United States Federal Reserve is gracefully gliding out of its quantitative policy position - and by October that money printing process is likely to be effectively at an end. The question from most investors is therefore “what next for U.S. monetary policy?”.

from MacroScope:

Euro needs the Fed, or QE, for the next leg down

EIt has become increasingly clear it takes a lot more than words to sink the euro.

The European Central Bank cut rates as low as they will go on Thursday and announced another round of cheap cash for banks, hoping the euro, which has helped knock down inflation in the fragile euro zone economy, will fall.

from Breakingviews:

Europe slides towards the next Minsky Moment

By Neil Unmack

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

There’s little doubt that markets think the euro crisis is over. Bond yields have fallen below pre-crisis levels for most of the countries formerly known as peripherals; the grab for southern European assets is a crowded trade. Could this be the prelude to the next Minsky moment?

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