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Reuters blog archive
from John Lloyd:
The European Union’s unending quandary
The pace of European disintegration continues to quicken. Recession deepens in the 17-member euro zone; it is now the longest downturn since the currency was launched in 2000. In Italy, a new left-right government, launched on an anti-austerity program, finds the neighborhood more austere than it had hoped. In France, Maurice Levy, boss of the advertising giant Publicis, did a survey showing that northern Europeans – Poles, Germans, Brits – were moderately optimistic while southerners – Spaniards, Italians, Greeks and the French – were deeply pessimistic. France dipped into recession earlier this month, for the third time in four years. The union is pulling apart.
Nothing brings relief. In the Netherlands, a TV show persuaded the country’s deputy finance minister, Frans Weekers, to watch clips of Bulgarians boasting about how they had defrauded his country’s government of welfare benefits. Bulgarians and Romanians, the poorest members of the European Union, will be able to move to any state in the EU next year. What had been presented to the poor as a new freedom is now an imposition for the rich.
Those who have been most enthusiastic for the union now proclaim that it is in grave danger. In an interview earlier this month the financier and philanthropist George Soros said European leaders, in trying to find exit routes from the crisis, have “generated political dynamics that are leading toward the EU’s disintegration.”
“Euro-skepticism” – Euro-fury is more like it – has grown. A survey by the pro-EU European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) shows that:
from Breakingviews:
FirstGroup cash call shows deleveraging imperative
By Dominic Elliott
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
It’s shaping up to be the year of the rights issue in Europe. FirstGroup’s 615 million pound ($1 billion) cash call suggests companies are biting the bullet and exploiting the rise in equity markets to repair their balance sheets. The jumbo issue from the UK rail and bus operator comes after similar fundraisings from the likes of Commerzbank, Dutch cable company KPN and travel operator Thomas Cook. Other distressed companies should look to delever while they can.
from Hugo Dixon:
UK should get on front foot with City
It is perhaps too much to expect Britain’s Conservative-led government to lead any initiatives on Europe, such is the orgy of self-destruction in the party over whether the UK should stay in the European Union. But, insofar as David Cameron manages to get some respite from the madness, he should launch a strategy to enhance the City of London as Europe’s financial centre.
Britain has in recent years been playing a defensive game in response to the barrage of misguided financial rules from Brussels. It now needs to get on the front foot and sell the City as part of the solution to Europe’s problems. The opportunity is huge both for Britain and the rest of Europe.
from MacroScope:
Possibility of Spanish downgrade looms over euro zone
Spanish government bonds have had a good run since the European Central Bank said it would protect the euro last year. But some analysts say the threat of a rating downgrade to junk remains an important risk.
Credit default swap prices are discounting such a move, according to Markit. Spain is only one notch above junk according to Moody's and Standard & Poor's ratings, and two notches above junk for Fitch. All three have it on negative outlook. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch says it sees a “high probability” of a sovereign rating downgrade in the second half of the year.
from Breakingviews:
Hollande gets serious on Europe – at last
By Pierre Briançon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
François Hollande knows that the widening Franco-German divide lies at the heart of the euro zone crisis. In a press conference on Thursday, the French president showed that he wants to find a way to work with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to take Europe forward. He suggested the creation of an “economic government” of the monetary union, while addressing a key German concern: Paris seems ready to accept sovereignty transfers of a sort that would make such a centralised body effective.
from MacroScope:
Best days over for emerging market local currency bonds?
Local currency bonds in emerging markets, like most financial assets, have enjoyed a solid rally on the back of ample global central bank liquidity. But the good times may be coming to an end, according to a report from Capital Economics. That's because there's only so much boost the securities can get out of the monetary easing efforts of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, the firm says.
Emerging market (EM) local currency government bond yields have fallen sharply in the past few years. Our GDP-weighted overall 10-year yield of a sample of 18 EM sovereign borrowers has dropped by 125 basis points since the start of 2011, to around 4.4% at the end of April.
from MacroScope:
Greek bond rebound masks stark economic reality
Ten-year Greek government bond yields tumbled to their lowest in nearly three years one day after Fitch upgraded the country's sovereign credit ratings.
Borrowing costs fell to 8.21 percent - the lowest since June 2010, just after Greece received a bailout from the International Monetary Fund and European Union. The difference between 10- and 30-year yields was also at its least negative since that time.
from MacroScope:
There is no sovereign debt crisis in Europe
Evidence that Europe’s austerity policies are not working was in ample supply this morning. The euro zone as a whole is now in its longest recession since the start of monetary union. France has succumbed to the region's retrenchment. Italy’s GDP slump is now the lengthiest on record. And Greece, still in depression, shrank another 5.3 percent in the first quarter.
To understand why this is happening, Brown University professor Mark Blyth says it is necessary to forget everything you think you know about the euro zone crisis. The monetary union's troubles are not, as often depicted, the result of runaway spending by bloated, profligate states that are finally being forced to pay the piper. Instead, argues Blyth, it is merely a sequel to the U.S. financial meltdown that started, like its American counterpart, with dangerously-indebted risk-taking on the part of a super-sized banking sector.
from Breakingviews:
Bangladeshi accord shows limits of market forces
By Edward Hadas
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Tragedy can concentrate minds; minds can be more powerful than markets; globalisation can be a force for good. Those are the lessons of the success of the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh.
from MacroScope:
Cameron’s dilemma
Britain’s David Cameron began the day on Monday gently slapping down two Cabinet colleagues who said if they had a vote today, they would opt to leave the EU. It was senseless, he said, to throw in the towel before he had had a chance to renegotiate Britain’s relationship with Europe. He ended it by caving into rebels in his Conservative party who are demanding legislation now to commit to an in/out referendum before the next election.
The 25 year history of the Conservatives and Europe – internecine warfare and successive election defeats as they obsessed about something which figures low on most Britons’ priority list – suggests no good can come of this and if Cameron wins the 2015 election it moves Britain incrementally closer to the EU exit door. The more immediate question is whether Cameron has lanced the boil. Again, history suggests that if you give ground to the eurosceptics they merely demand more. And what the PM’s pro-EU Liberal Democrat coalition partners make of this isn’t hard to imagine which means he might not even have the numbers to get the bill through parliament. One of the leading rebels seized on that point, saying the move could well fail.
