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The full Ecofin of 28 EU finance ministers meets after Monday’s Eurogroup meeting of euro zone representatives didn’t seem to get far in unpicking the Gordian Knot that is banking union. Ireland’s Michael Noonan talked of “wide differences”.
The ministers are seeking to create an agency to close euro zone banks and a fund to pay for the clean-up - completing a new system to police banks and prevent a repeat of the bloc’s debt crisis.
But a German official rejected a euro zone proposal unearthed by Reuters that would allow the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Stability Fund, to lend and help finance the cost of any future bank rescues or wind-ups. Berlin does not want to end up footing the bill for failures elsewhere and is still constrained because a coalition deal to form the next government has yet to win final approval from the Social Democrats.
Furthermore, most euro zone countries are happy to let the European Commission, the EU executive, rule on restructuring or closing banks but Germany wants the decision to be taken by the EU's 28 finance ministers, where it holds more sway.
The Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers meets, followed by the full Ecofin on Tuesday, to try and unpick the Gordian Knot that is banking union.
The ministers are seeking to create an agency to close euro zone banks and a fund to pay for the clean-up - completing a new system to prevent a repeat of the bloc’s debt crisis.
The finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy and possibly Spain are expected to meet in Berlin to discuss banking union. Two sources told us Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem – who chairs the Eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers -- should attend as will EU commissioner Michel Barnier and key European Central Bank policymaker Joerg Asmussen.
There is a possibility, however, that a violent storm that has hit Germany could prevent the participants reaching Berlin. If they make it, they will bid to come closer to a solution on a planned European resolution mechanism to deal with troubled banks ahead of a full meeting of euro zone finance ministers next week to help fashion a deal by the end of the year.
The European Central Bank holds its last rates meeting of the year with some of the alarm about looming deflation pricked by a pick-up in euro zone inflation last week – though at 0.9 percent it remains way below the ECB’s target of close to two percent.
The spotlight, as always, will be on Mario Draghi but also on the latest staff forecasts. If they inflation staying well under target in 2015 (which is quite likely), expectations of more policy easing will gather steam again.
Ukraine’s shock decision to turn its back on an EU trade deal continues to reverberate with mass rallies on the streets of Kiev in protest at President Viktor Yanukovich’s decision.
To try to defuse tensions, Yanukovich issued a statement saying he would do everything in his power to speed up Ukrainian moves toward the EU. Is this another U-turn or mere semantics? The answer is important.
The bombardment of European Central Bank interventions continues today. ECB chief Mario Draghi addresses the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt and any number of his colleagues break cover elsewhere.
Draghi shepherded a surprise interest rate cut earlier this month and consistently says that other options are on the table though yesterday he said that talk of cutting the deposit rate into negative territory to try and force banks to lend more was people “creating their own dreams”.
A round of European Central Bank policymakers speeches this week can be boiled down to this. All options, including money-printing, are on the table but it will be incredibly hard to get it past ECB hardliners and neither camp sees a real threat of deflation yet.
Reports that the ECB could push deposit rates marginally into negative territory in an attempt to force banks to lend have been played down by our sources, not least because it would distort the working of the money market.
French President Francois Hollande is in Rome for talk with Italy’s Enrico Letta. Both have a lot on their minds.
The French economy contracted in the third quarter and Hollande faces a blanket of criticism over his timid economic reforms (although he has pushed through some labour and pension changes).
Another round of European Central Bank speakers will command attention today with disappearing inflation fuelling talk of further extraordinary policy moves.
Chief economist Peter Praet, who last week raised the prospect of the ECB starting outright asset purchases (QE by another name) if things got too bad, is speaking at Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt along with Vitor Constancio and the Bundesbank’s Andreas Dombret, while Joerg Asmussen makes an appearance in Berlin.
The decision by one of Silvio Berlusconi's key allies to break from his party and back Prime Minister Enrico Letta's fragile coalition appears to have shored up the Italian government with a final vote on expelling the media magnate from public life looming large.
Berlusconi said on Saturday his rump centre-right party had split from the coalition but did not have the numbers to bring it down.
Angelino Alfano, interior minister and deputy premier, said all five of the centre-right ministers under his umbrella would stay in the government but there is still plenty of disagreement within the coalition about the 2014 budget and doubts about Letta’s ability to push through meaningful economic reforms.